Montana, 2021

High Wind in Montana, November 5, 2021

November 5, 2021 · NWS TFX · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Strong westerly flow ahead of a Pacific trough combined with a tightening pressure gradient for widespread 40 + mph wind gusts over north-central MT on November 5th, 2021. The 50 kt H700 flow managed to transfer to the surface near Geyser, a location usually favorable for strong downslope winds on the lee side of the Little Belt Mountains.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TFX wrote it up.

Strong westerly flow ahead of a Pacific trough combined with a tightening pressure gradient for widespread 40 + mph wind gusts over north-central MT on November 5th, 2021. The 50 kt H700 flow managed to transfer to the surface near Geyser, a location usually favorable for strong downslope winds on the lee side of the Little Belt Mountains.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 5, 4:07 AM MST, 6 hours 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 5, 4:07 AM MST, 6 hours 29 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
507 AM MDT Fri Nov 5 2021

.Update...

Cloudiness increases over time and a few areas are still gusting
upwards of 30 to 35 mph, but forecast to decrease in the oncoming
hours. Temperatures continue to trend cooler, as expected. Forecast
conditions are being well handled this morning so no update needed.
- Pierce

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Gusty winds can be expected this morning and afternoon, especially
across north-central Montana. Passing disturbances in southwest flow
aloft this weekend into early next week will bring snow to the Rocky
Mountain Front and the West Yellowstone area, while dry and windy
conditions are expected along the Plains. Temperatures will
gradually cool closer to seasonable averages beginning this weekend
into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Sunday...

Strong gusty winds developing in the early morning hours will
continue and expand across the eastern slopes and plains through
late morning and early afternoon in the wake of a passing
disturbance and cold front yesterday. Southwesterly flow builds over
the region later today and persists through the weekend, resulting
in periods of snow for the Northern Rockies as well as far southwest
Montana in the West Yellowstone area, while breezy conditions can be
expected across the eastern slopes and the plains. Low-level
thicknesses gradually decrease over the weekend, resulting in a
gradual decreasing trend in temperatures. Snow accumulations and
gusty winds should remain below levels that would need highlights.

Monday through next Thursday...

Southwesterly flow aloft Monday will gradually transition to a
strong ridge building just to the west by the end of the week,
leaving the mid-week time frame as most likely to be the most
unsettled part of the week. Models suggest much of the precipitation
remains confined to the mountains and in the form of snow, while any
precipitation that moves over lower elevations and the plains would
likely encounter mild enough temperatures to be primarily in the
form of isolated to scattered rain showers. Temperatures are likely
remain near to slightly above normal for much of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
507 AM MDT Thu Nov 4 2021 (05/12Z TAF period)

VFR conditions will predominate, though with occasional periods of
low VFR cigs and mtn obscurations for southwest Montana through the
remainder of the overnight period. For KWYS, expect MVFR cigs at
times through around midday Friday.

Gusty winds are expected for much of the early morning through
afternoon period Friday across the region, especially the north-
central plains.

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  57  34  56  31 /   0   0   0  10
CTB  50  28  48  27 /  10  10   0  10
HLN  59  36  56  31 /   0   0  10  30
BZN  58  37  58  31 /   0   0  10  40
WYS  43  29  44  29 /   0   0  20  70
DLN  54  37  53  29 /   0   0  10  40
HVR  57  32  55  29 /  10   0   0  10
LWT  57  36  57  30 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 5, 9:02 AM MST, 1 hour 34 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1002 AM MDT FRI NOV 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 SSE GEYSER            47.25N 110.48W
11/05/2021  M52 MPH          JUDITH BASIN       MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MTGYS GEYSER (MT DOT).

&&
Local storm report, Nov 5, 9:03 AM MST, 1 hour 33 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1003 AM MDT FRI NOV 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 ESE MALMSTROM AFB     47.50N 111.17W
11/05/2021  M46 MPH          CASCADE            MT   AWOS

            AWOS STATION KGFA MALMSTROM AFB.

&&
Local storm report, Nov 5, 9:04 AM MST, 1 hour 32 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1004 AM MDT FRI NOV 5 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1044 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 15 WNW WOLF CREEK       47.09N 112.37W
11/04/2021  M46 MPH          LEWIS AND CLARK    MT   MESONET

            MESONET STATION MTROG ROGERS PASS (MT DOT).

&&

Event by event

1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.

High Wind, Judith Basin

When
November 5, 10:36 AM MST
Where
Judith Basin forecast zone
Measured
50 kt (58 mph) measured gust
Reported by
Department of Highways

MDT Geyser station measured a 50 kt (58 mph) non-thunderstorm wind gust.

What these are

High Wind
Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Montana in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Montana, November 2021

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 992507.