Name: Wildfire in Montana, July 1 to 31, 2021
Start: 2021-07-01T09:10
End: 2021-07-31T23:59
Location: Montana

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TFX wrote it up.

Strong high pressure was the dominant weather pattern in July, which was occasionally suppressed by passing shortwaves and modest moisture for periods of scattered thunderstorms. Often times, the thunderstorm activity was followed by gusty winds and low relative humidity. Both lightning and human caused fires flourished in this environment.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Great Falls, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 1, 4:39 AM MST, 4 hours 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 1, 4:39 AM MST, 4 hours 31 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
539 AM MDT Thu Jul 1 2021

...Aviation Section Update...

.SYNOPSIS...

Expect hot and dry weather to continue through the end of the
week. As daily highs reach into the 90s and low 100s, fire weather
becomes a concern across some areas. Today and tomorrow, expect
isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity,
especially across the southwest.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tomorrow...

Upper level ridging continues to linger over the area. Expect the
associated sunshine, along with some very hot and dry conditions,
today and tomorrow. Highs are forecast to reach into the mid 90s
to low 100s, while Relative Humidity (RH) values fall as low a
12%, in some areas. As the closed upper level area of higher
heights moves northeastward into Canada, sufficient instability
favors isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms and rain
showers across southwest Montana. Friday, with the approach of an
upper level trof, isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity is
expected to begin across the southwest, and then, to move
northeastward across the region. Generally, during this period,
winds remain light; however, with periods of gusty winds expected
across portions of Hill, Blaine, Chouteau and Fergus Counties, a
Red Flag Warning is valid into tomorrow evening.

Saturday through next Thursday...

With a weakening upper level ridge, temperatures cool a bit on
Saturday. Highs are generally expected to range in the 90s.
Perturbations in the flow aloft favor isolated thunderstorm
activity Saturday afternoon and evening. With an area of lower
heights located to the north of The Treasure State, and an area of
higher heights residing over the U.S. southwest, Montana is
located under an unsettled atmosphere. Afternoon highs trend in
the 80s to 90s range, with a slight chance to a chance of isolated
afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day.
- Fogleman

&&

.AVIATION...
539 AM MDT Thu Jul 1 2021 (01/12Z TAF period)

For all airfields from KBZN and north, expect VFR conditions
throughout this TAF period. At KEKS and KWYS, expect predominant VFR
conditions with PROB30 0121/0202 MVFR in association with
thunderstorm activity. High temperatures in the 90s to 100 degrees
cause density altitude impacts to aviation ops. Generally, expect
light winds; however, periods of breezy to gusty winds are forecast.
- Fogleman

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Very low RH percentages and hot conditions prevail through the
remainder of this week. Most locations can expect generally light
winds helping to limit critical fire weather conditions but
stronger winds in Hill and Blaine Counties have prompted the
issuance of a Red Flag Warning for Fire Zone 113 and 115 for both
Thursday and Friday. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms move into southwestern Montana Thursday and Friday,
then spread into north central Montana over the weekend. There is
also a slight risk for dry thunderstorms in western portions of
southwestern Montana Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  98  61  98  60 /   0  10  20  20
CTB  95  60  95  58 /   0  10  10  10
HLN  98  64  97  63 /  10  20  20  20
BZN  96  56  94  57 /  20  20  30  20
WYS  83  44  82  45 /  40  30  40  10
DLN  90  54  89  55 /  30  20  30  10
HVR 100  64 102  65 /   0   0  10  20
LWT  94  60  96  61 /   0   0  20  30

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM MDT Friday Blaine...Cascade...Central
and Southern Lewis and Clark...Chouteau...Eastern Glacier...
Eastern Pondera...Eastern Teton...Fergus...Hill...Judith Basin...
Liberty...Northern Rocky Mountain Front...Southern Rocky
Mountain Front...Toole.

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT Friday
Chouteau and Fergus Counties...Hill and Blaine Counties.

&&

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls

Event by event

1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.

Wildfire, Madison

When: July 1, 9:10 AM MST to July 31, 11:59 PM MST
Where: Madison forecast zone
Reported by: Other Federal Agency

The Goose Fire was located near Hoodoo Pass about 32 miles south of Ennis. The fire was ignited by lightning on July 1st and burned through the month of July, though it was 80 percent contained by August 1st. The initial 250 acre fire was inaccessible to containment crews and was classified as a type 2 incident during its peak on July 10th. By the end of the month, it grew to 7,522 acres and at one structure was destroyed. The cost to fight the fire was about $7.6 million.

What these are

Wildfire: A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Montana in 2021 Every state in 2021 This day in weather history Warnings in Montana, July 2021

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 964901.