A warm front moved northward into southwest Missouri during the early morning of the 23rd and set up a boundary for training showers and thunderstorms from southeast Kansas eastward into south central Missouri. The heaviest rainfall occurred from Crawford County, Kansas to Lawrence County, Missouri, where accumulations exceeded three inches.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
A warm front moved northward into southwest Missouri during the early morning of the 23rd and set up a boundary for training showers and thunderstorms from southeast Kansas eastward into south central Missouri. The heaviest rainfall occurred from Crawford County, Kansas to Lawrence County, Missouri, where accumulations exceeded three inches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 22, 5:41 AM CST, 19 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 641 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 ...12Z AVIATION UPDATE... .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Key Messages: 1. Warming trend starting today. 2. Showers and storms possible starting late Friday night through early Monday. 3. Gusty winds early Sunday morning through Sunday night. 4. Severe storm potential Saturday and Sunday along with heavy rain chances. 5. Showers and storms possible again by midweek next week. Current models show an upper level ridge pattern pushing eastward, with the surface high pressure located over southern Missouri/Northern Arkansas. Southwesterly winds will promote a warming trend beginning today, with highs today in the mid 60s to lower 70s. As the surface high pushes east later today, a warm front associated with a low pressure system currently situated over Northern Texas will lift into the region tonight. This, in conjunction with an increasing low level jet will promote moisture content over the area. As the day progresses into tonight, instability will increase across KS and into western MO, as favorable lift from the LLJ will be present.The Current SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook shows a marginal risk mainly in the western portion of the CWA, with hail being the main threat. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 235 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Saturday: After the morning thunderstorm risk, higher probabilities for thunderstorms will shift north. Analysis shows the warm front continuing to lift into the region Saturday morning. Models seem to be in fair agreement of upper level shortwave energy pushing through the region Saturday afternoon, as well as the LLJ continuing to progress through the area, promoting further moisture advection. Saturday night into Sunday Night: A developing negatively tilted shortwave trough out west will begin to push eastward beginning Saturday night, reaching the region by Sunday afternoon/evening. Ahead of this developing low pressure system, winds will begin to amplify Saturday night, continuing into Sunday, with gusts up to 30 knots possible Sunday afternoon. Current models show us in the warm sector ahead of the front for this period, with instability increasing throughout the afternoon/evening hours. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the day, however confidence is still low with regards to heavy rainfall occuring. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) and Shift of Tails show the main threat of heavy rainfall to be more north of the region in Northern Missouri, but other models still seem to be in disagreement with regards to rainfall amounts. The SPC's current outlook shows an Enhanced risk over most of the CWA, with all severe hazards possible. As future model runs come out and confidence increases in location/severity, updates will be made. Monday through Thursday: The front will push out of the region late Sunday/early Monday morning, allowing most of Monday to be quiet. This will be shortlived, however, as winds show a more southerly shift, advecting Gulf moisture into the region once again. The WPC Cluster Analysis Tool (WCAT) shows inconsistencies between models in regards to timing and location of the next wave, but another upper level trough should make its way through the region as early as Tuesday night through Wednesday night. With this wave, showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 619 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 Surface high pressure will allow for calm, dry weather and VFR flight conditions to persist throughout today. Light winds around 5 knots primarily out of the south-southwest will be expected at all sites. Looking into tonight, however, a warm front will begin to lift into the region, allowing for moisture to return to the area. Showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening for all sites, with the higher probability for thunderstorms primarily at KJLN. A main concern for tonight will be low level wind shear, which will begin to affect the TAF sites as early as 6Z. As the weekend progresses, further chances for storms will increase, with severe thunderstorms likely on Sunday. Future updates will provide more detail in regards to this system. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && SHORT TERM...Schwartz LONG TERM...Schwartz AVIATION...Burchfield/Schwartz
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Springfield MO 539 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-231045- Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon- St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 539 AM CDT Fri Oct 22 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Limited hail risk. Limited lightning risk. DISCUSSION... A warm front will lift into the region beginning tonight, promoting moisture return into the area. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across SE KS and move into the Missouri Ozarks generally after 10pm. A marginal risk for severe storms exists overnight, with small hail and lightning in the strongest storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Higher probabilities for thunderstorms will shift north after Saturday morning, however, thunderstorm chances cannot be ruled out during the day, mainly north of Springfield. Gusty winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible late Saturday through Sunday ahead of the next system. A more potent system will move into the area on Sunday, with an enhanced risk of severe storms Sunday and Sunday night. The highest chances of severe storms will be in the afternoon/evening. All forms of severe weather are possible. Additional thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep This product in graphical format...along with other weather... hydrological and climate information...at http://www.weather.gov/sgf Schwartz
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 47 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:59 UTC.
2 heavy rain, 1 flash flood, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A 24 hour rainfall measurement of 2.24 inches was reported with rain still falling.
A 12 hour rainfall report of 4.61 inches was reported by a retired NWS employee.
Highway U at the Silver Lake Branch low water crossing was flooded and impassable.
State Highway 97 was closed at the Spring River due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, October 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 984225, 984226, 981572, 981573.