A cold front and stronger upper level low pressure system moved across the region producing strong to severe storms and isolated flash flooding from the evening of the 3rd to the afternoon of the 4th. Wind damage was reported over south central Missouri in Howell, Ozarks and Douglas counties, and several flash flood warnings and advisories were issued as one to two inches of rain fell south of…
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SGF wrote it up.
A cold front and stronger upper level low pressure system moved across the region producing strong to severe storms and isolated flash flooding from the evening of the 3rd to the afternoon of the 4th. Wind damage was reported over south central Missouri in Howell, Ozarks and Douglas counties, and several flash flood warnings and advisories were issued as one to two inches of rain fell south of Interstate 44.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 3, 10:58 PM CST, 57 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Springfield MO 1158 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 At 220 pm sfc front extends from Jeff City-Springfield-Grove OK and continues to move southeast. Seeing a subtle upper wave moving through the region now with some isolated weak updrafts developing along and east of the front. 19z KSGF sounding shows a weak cap based at 700mb, a little stronger than the HRRR guidance indicates, but not by much. Will monitor the region for some possible convection/storms over the next of hours over far southern MO. Strong to severe weather is possible given 2500-3000 j/kg cape over the region this afternoon, but weak forcing should keep the coverage isolated. Large hail/isolated wind gusts would be the primary hazards/risks. Next round of storms will move up from OK/northwest AR late this evening as a stronger upper level wave approaches. Looking for storms to grow upscale over eastern Oklahoma early this evening, then shift northeast, organizing into complex with bowing segments along the leading edge. 0-3km and 0-6km shear vectors favor damaging wind potential along any nw-se oriented bowing segments as they move into southern Missouri toward 9pm-midnight. Looks like best chances for severe storms will be close to the MO/AR border along/south of Hwy 60. Wind damage/brief tornado would be the main risks with this second round. Will need to watch rainfall rates/potential flooding with this nighttime convection. Overall this system will move through fairly quickly. Could see a quick one-two inches of rain in some areas and will need to possible flash flooding. Tuesday will be cooler with rain wrapping around the sfc low as it moves northeast through Arkansas and southern Missouri. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 Will see much cooler weather through midweek as the upper pattern briefly evolves into a higher amplitude pattern and an upper trough moves through the region. The upper pattern flattens out and becomes more active late in the week with good chances for showers/thunderstorms by Friday night and Saturday. Will need to watch for some potential for stronger storms over the weekend as low pressure tracks just north of the region and warmer/more unstable air moves north ahead the system. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 For the 06z TAFS, convection was increasing in coverage at the TAF sites. Will see thunderstorm potential for the first several hours and then transition to mainly showers thereafter. Ceilings should lower into MVFR and potentially IFR late tonight into Tuesday with showers continuing through around mid day to early afternoon. Clearing should take place late in the afternoon or early evening. && .SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE. && SHORT TERM...DSA LONG TERM...DSA AVIATION...Lindenberg
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Springfield MO 751 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-050100- Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon- St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas- Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton- Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone- Taney-Ozark-Oregon- 751 PM CDT Mon May 3 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Weather hazards expected... Limited tornado risk. Limited hail risk. Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk. Limited flooding risk. Significant lightning risk. DISCUSSION... A thunderstorm complex will begin to push into southern Missouri late this evening through the overnight hours. Thunderstorms will be moving northeast out of Oklahoma and Arkansas with the strongest storms generally affecting locations along and south of the interstate 44 corridor. Large hail to the size of golf balls, damaging winds in excess of 70 mph and tornadoes will be possible with this activity. There is a localized risk for excessive rainfall and flooding tonight across southern Missouri. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Showers and non-severe thunderstorms will linger into Tuesday, especially east of Highway 65. Additional chances for showers and thunderstorms will occur from Thursday into the weekend. We will monitor for the potential for stronger storms for Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed later this evening and overnight for areas in southern Missouri along and south of the interstate 44 corridor. && More detailed information can be accessed at: http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep This product in graphical format...along with other weather... hydrological and climate information...at http://www.weather.gov/sgf Lindenberg
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Springfield MO 1227 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021 MOZ097-105-040600- Ozark MO-Howell MO- 1227 AM CDT Tue May 4 2021 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OZARK AND SOUTHWESTERN HOWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 100 AM CDT... At 1227 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9 miles north of Bakersfield, or 18 miles west of West Plains, moving northeast at 15 mph. Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm. Locations impacted include... Norfork Lake... Bakersfield... Siloam Springs... Moody... Tecumseh... Pottersville... Caulfield... Udall... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways. && A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for south central and southwestern Missouri. LAT...LON 3650 9238 3673 9223 3684 9201 3650 9194 TIME...MOT...LOC 0527Z 229DEG 13KT 3666 9218 Burchfield
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 150 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:53 UTC.
3 flood, 2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A mobile home suffered significant damage just off of Highway E south of Moody. Trees and power lines were reported down in the same area.
Four large trees were downed by high winds.
State Highway 142 at Bennetts River was closed due to flooding.
State Highway 142 at Myatt Creek was closed due to flooding.
State Highway K was closed due to flooding at the low water area.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, May 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 961480, 961481, 960782, 960783, 960784.