As Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas drifted over northern Louisiana, showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain across portions of Mississippi. Some of the storms produced localized flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
As Post-Tropical Cyclone Nicholas drifted over northern Louisiana, showers and thunderstorms produced heavy rain across portions of Mississippi. Some of the storms produced localized flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 17, 8:48 PM CST, 2 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 948 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 .UPDATE... Updated for evening discussion. && .DISCUSSION... Persistent convection lingering with best coverage north of I-20...particularly in west central MS. Convection lines up in proximity to what is left of tropical system Nicholas' low pressure center. Have updated the pops through the next 6 hours or so to prolong some of the precip/thunder slightly longer. Clouds are also a bit of a mess on satellite, but llvl stratus expected to form yet again this evening. Have made some minor adjustments beyond the pops for hourly trends. Prior discussion below: Today Through Saturday: A weak upper low begins to affect our weather through the short term period. Currently located over the central and southern plains, this feature will drift toward our area where it will aid in providing widespread upper divergent/diffluent flow as well as marginally cooler temperatures aloft. This additional lift with a marginally more unstable vertical profile will combine with the remnants of Nicholas, which has maintained a minimally modified tropical airmass over our area characterized by PWATs in the 1.8-2.2" range, to promote widespread convective activity today and Saturday. Broken to overcast skies will help to keep instability lower through the period, but deep moisture advection on southerly boundary layer flow and filtered sunlight will still contribute to enough destabilization to result in a few thunderstorms today and Saturday. A relative minimum in the likelihood for showers and storms will occur overnight during the diurnal convective minimum, but lingering showers and an isolated thunder storm or two will remain possible. Highs today and Saturday look to be a bit warmer than yesterday, topping out in the middle 80s F for most. Overnight lows won't fall too much from the daily highs, as humidity and cloud cover will stifle overnight cooling. Lows will likely be in the lower 70s F. /86/ Saturday night through Friday: Come Saturday evening a weak closed mid level low will be centered over the Sabine river while a moist airmass with >2in PWATs will reside over our CWA. Most of the day's convection will see a distinct diurnal trend but at least a low chance of rain will continue through the night thanks to the circulation around the low. The mid level low will open up Sunday and eject out to the northeast through Sunday night. This open trough is expected to be centered over our CWA during the heat of the day and combine with our moist airmass for numerous to widespread coverage of convection. The departing shortwave trough will continue lifting northeast of the region Monday while a potent northern stream trough deepens over the Rockies and drops over the Central Plains Monday night. In the wake of the departing shortwave trough drier air is expected to knock PWATs down below an inch and three quarters over the western half of our CWA. Scattered to numerous coverage of mainly afternoon convection is expected with the greatest coverage over east Mississippi. Come Tuesday the potent northern stream trough will be approaching our CWA. This trough will support a decent cold front that will move into our northern most zones Tuesday evening and clear our southeast most zones early Wednesday morning. PWATs are expected to pool back above 2in PWATs ahead of the cold front that will support heavy down pours especially during the evening when instability will be greatest. This clearing front will bring in cooler and much drier air with surface dew points in the 40s to 50s and PWATs around a half inch. Any precipitation left over in the southeast should end well before noon and a dry period will start that will last through Friday. Afternoon highs will be noticeably cooler Wednesday and may remain in the 70s across our north. A surface high will settle over the region Wednesday night into Friday helping to set up a couple of strong radiational cooling nights. Morning lows in the 50s are expected areawide Thursday and Friday mornings. Highs will be a couple degrees warmer on Friday than Thursday but cooler than normal topping out in the 70s to near 80F. /22/ && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: Scattered convection across the area just reinforcing plenty of llvl RH. Most sites returning to IFR by 06-08Z if not earlier. LIFR briefly through sunrise possible. Convection is diminishing and moving out of the region.... though GTR may see another round...as well as HKS before 03Z. MVFR after sunrise for most sites...slow to return to VFR in the afternoon for PIB/HBG. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 72 86 71 85 / 49 77 55 88 Meridian 70 82 69 82 / 54 87 53 86 Vicksburg 73 87 72 87 / 49 68 49 86 Hattiesburg 72 84 71 85 / 55 83 38 90 Natchez 72 85 71 85 / 40 65 39 85 Greenville 72 86 71 85 / 50 82 55 89 Greenwood 72 86 71 85 / 47 79 55 87 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && HJS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson MS 209 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074- 181915- Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland- Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar- Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes- Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston- Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper- Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah- Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln- Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest- 209 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Saturday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday night through Thursday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Thursday. 20 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... No short term hazards expected. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Tropical page... https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan National Hurricane Center Home Page... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
730 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021
MSZ030-033-180130-
Oktibbeha MS-Clay MS-
730 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021
...Locally heavy rain occurring across portions of Clay and
Oktibbeha counties...
At 729 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorms producing
locally heavy rain extending from northern Oktibbeha County to just
north of West Point.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and heavy rain.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and
may lead to localized flooding.
Locations impacted include...
Starkville, West Point and Muldrow.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3338 8881 3349 8895 3371 8872 3368 8872
3368 8858 3364 8853
TIME...MOT...LOC 0029Z 060DEG 1KT 3361 8870
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
DLSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
748 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021
MSZ018-034-180145-
Washington MS-Bolivar MS-
748 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021
...Locally heavy rainfall occurring across western Bolivar and
northern Washington counties...
At 747 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking thunderstorms producing
locally heavy rainfall along a line extending from near Rosedale to
near Leland. These storms were nearly stationary.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and localized flooding.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms and may
lead to localized flooding.
Locations impacted include...
Greenville, Rosedale, Metcalfe, Benoit and Beulah.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3346 9080 3341 9100 3377 9105 3376 9103
3376 9101 3378 9099 3379 9099 3380 9100
3382 9105 3388 9106 3392 9096
TIME...MOT...LOC 0047Z 222DEG 4KT 3385 9100 3342 9084
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
DLThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooding occurred at the intersection of Wolfe Road and Dowdle Road.
A few streets were flooded in Rolling Fork.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, September 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 978500, 978502.