Hail in Kansas, September 17, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
223 PM MDT Fri Sep 17 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 141 PM MDT Fri Sep 17 2021

While upper ridging prevailed aloft, a slow moving cold front
dictated today's weather. This front brought cloudy skies to the
region this morning, along with some drizzle and breezy north winds.
As the boundary gradually shifted to the southeast, showers and weak
thunderstorms continued to develop behind it into the afternoon
hours. At 1 PM MT, the front was just to the southeast of the
region. Skies were cloudy, but slightly clearing in eastern
Colorado, with northerly winds gusting around 20 to 25 mph.
Temperatures ranged in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Cloud cover should decrease slightly this evening as winds taper
off. However, guidance suggests that stratus will rebuild overnight
into Saturday morning, particularly along and east of the Colorado
border. Confidence in fog forming is low at this time, but this will
need to be monitored as well. Otherwise, a slight chance of showers
and storms persists into the evening hours for southeastern portions
of the region before finally drying out after midnight. Temperatures
fall into the upper 40s to upper 50s.

On Saturday, the upper ridge strengthens over the central and
southern Plains, resulting in a warm up (highs in the mid/upper
80s). Dry weather prevails, with sunny skies by the afternoon once
morning stratus burns off.

Flow aloft becomes southwesterly Saturday night as an upper trough
pushes further into the western CONUS. Light cloud cover may develop
out ahead, but precipitation is not expected. Temperatures fall into
the mid 50s to mid 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Fri Sep 17 2021

The extended forecast begins with southwest flow aloft over the Tri-
State area and an upper ridge over the PAC NW.  Areas may have some
elevated fire weather conditions due to relative humidity or winds.
The lowest relative humidities will be along and west of Highway 27
in the upper teens to low 20s.  The strongest winds, however will be
further east.  Regardless, wheat stubble, curing corn and other dry
vegetation will aide in any fires sparking to be sustained.
Afternoon high temperatures will range from the upper 80s to mid-
90s.  Lows will be in the 50s and 60s.

Sunday night, the trough will move across the InterMountain West,
reaching the Central High Plains by Monday morning.  A cold front is
expected to slide through the area from the northwest, through the
day, bringing a chance for some showers to the region.  Cooler air
will also push in, with a 10 to 20 degree drop in temperatures
expected from the previous day.  Highs will range from the upper 60s
to low 80s with the cooler areas being where the front comes through
first.  Lows will be primarily in the 40s.  Precipitation chances
taper off by daybreak.  For the time being, this appears to be the
last chance for precipitation in the extended forecast.

Expect a gradual warming trend Wednesday and Thursday as the trough
pushes out of the area and a weak ridge moves in.  Temperatures
return to the mid to upper 80s for highs and mid-40s to mid-50s for
lows by Thursday.  Friday, another cold front is expected to come
through the region, ushering in cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1119 AM MDT Fri Sep 17 2021

For KGLD and KMCK terminals, a cold front has brought low
ceilings to the region that should thin/break up somewhat this
afternoon. Meanwhile, northerly winds will begin to taper off and
shift to the northeast. Light winds become southerly overnight,
with a potential for sub-vfr ceilings to return to the region
after 06z. Have begun to suggest this in the TAF. At this time,
fog does not seem likely, but this will need to be monitored as
well.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JBH
LONG TERM...AW
AVIATION...JBH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Goodland KS
200 PM MDT Fri Sep 17 2021

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-182000-
Yuma-Kit Carson-Cheyenne-Rawlins-Decatur-Norton-Sherman-Thomas-
Sheridan-Graham-Wallace-Logan-Gove-Greeley-Wichita-Dundy-Hitchcock-
Red Willow-
200 PM MDT Fri Sep 17 2021 /300 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021/

This hazardous weather outlook is for extreme southwest Nebraska...
northwest Kansas and east central Colorado.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected across eastern Colorado
Sunday afternoon.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Wednesday afternoon,
along and west of Highway 27.

Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Thursday afternoon,
along and west of Highway 25.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Goodland KS
347 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

KSZ016-172115-
Graham KS-
347 PM CDT Fri Sep 17 2021

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Graham
County through 415 PM CDT...

At 346 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles south of Hill City, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Graham
County, including the following locations... Penokee and Studley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9974 3913 9978 3925 10016 3943 10016
      3946 9968
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 284DEG 16KT 3927 9987

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

AW