Rain from the remnants of Hurricane Nicholas affected portions of southern Mississippi. Amounts up to 5 inches fell, which resulted in some flooding across the area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
Rain from the remnants of Hurricane Nicholas affected portions of southern Mississippi. Amounts up to 5 inches fell, which resulted in some flooding across the area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 15, 8:29 AM CST, 1 hour 31 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 929 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 .UPDATE... Updated for morning discussion. && .DISCUSSION...Wet morning across the south half due to Nicholas remnants. Going forecast was pretty much on track. Tweaks were made to hourly temps this morning to account for cooler conditions under the precip shield and the slower to warm. Other adjustments were to increase cloud cover today into Thu as percentages were not accurately showing the "cloudy" conditions that are expected. Minor tweaks were made to the PoPs to account for the 100% ongoing over the S/SE areas and to also lower chances in the far NW. In terms of threats in our area from the rainfall, nothing has changed and following trends, our far S/SE tier of counties look to be the best locations to "add up" totals for the event, but rain rates have been on the low side so it's taken many hours to reach the 2-3 inch totals. I'll add that this morning for areas near the coast have seen their highest rain rates. The latest guidance along with ongoing trends support that those higher rates should remain locked toward the coast. As we progress into the afternoon, the look of the precip will become more scattered and banded, but progressive in the far south. Areas closer to I-20 (actually between I-20 and Hwy 84) may see a bit longer duration of the more steady stratiform precip as more of a "deformation" process occurs. Still, rates will be more in the light/moderate range and this will keep the probability of any flash flooding low. Due to all this, ongoing products cover things and will not make any changes. Overall threat looks to diminish or end this evening and overnight. /CME/ Prior discussion below: Today and tonight... Tropical Depression Nicholas is located across coastal Louisiana, roughly near De Ridder, LA. Convection is all on the eastern side of the center of circulation. As is the case with most tropical systems, there is basically no lightning with this as instability is low. Light to moderate rain has overspread most locations along and south of I-20 yesterday and overnight. There remains a sharp cutoff in where rain is occurring this morning, generally along and northwest of the Natchez Trace is seeing very little in the way of rain and certainly no heavier rain. South of this, stratiform rain is occurring, with some areas likely seeing more moderate rainfall. With convective rates not materializing much overnight, the flash flood risk is very low, but some locations further south in Louisiana continue to see a little higher rates and accumulations. Going through the next 24 hours, the track of Nicholas will continue to meander in this general area before stalling. Rain, with some heavier bursts at times, will continue to impact locations along and east of the center. This will mainly include locations east of the I- 55 corridor through today into tonight. Rates are overall expected to be low, but if there is a better band of showers that sets up over a location already saturated from rainfall, there remains a chance for some localized flooding. The best repeated rain looks to occur in the southeast, where a Flash Flood Watch is in effect through tonight. Adjustments will be made to the outlooked area in the HWO/graphics but overall will keep mention of the limited and elevated risk for flooding. Some drier air will begin to erode precipitation heading into late tonight into early Thursday. With continued clouds and precipitation, temperatures will again be on the cool side. Highs today will be in the mid 70s at many locales. The warmest temperatures once again will be in the Delta, where rainfall will be the least and less cloud cover is present. Here, highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. /28/ Thursday through next Tuesday... Wet & active period of convection is expected through the long term period. Thurs-this weekend (Sat-Sun): As remnants of Nicholas slowly dwindle & meander around the region, high anomalous tropical moisture & increased widespread to numerous rain showers will remain. With the remnant sfc circulation beginning to dwindle, this will lead to less moisture convergence & focused/forced convection. With soupy airmass persisting through the week, convection coverage will be high but remain less focused into the weekend. Return flow will be strongest both Thurs & Fri & decrease into the weekend. Some locally heavy downpours are possible through the period. However, less focused activity & most CAMs & probabilistic guidance are supportive of E/SE increased rain totals, this will not be coincident with more supportive wet antecedent conditions. Due to that, no flash flood hazards will be advertised in the HWO/graphics. As high pressure builds SW out of the NE/Appalachians & upper low stalls over S TX, this will help return flow become more SW into the weekend, & keep warm & soupy airmass (i.e. 2+ inch PWs) across the region. With stagnant airmass persisting, heat will be near or slightly below normals in the low-mid 80s & increasing to the upper 80s by the weekend. Early next week (Mon-Tues): As the upper low begins to become absorbed into the upper flow, a digging trough/strong cold front is progged to move across the Rockies & move E out of the Great Plains. This will bring another round of showers & storms into early next week. There remains spatial & temporal uncertainties on the amplitude & trough axis position into early next week, with the Canadian the slowest further W while the GFS/ECMWF are faster, further E, with the ECMWF driving a deeper trough/drier air into the region. Pattern will remain stagnant, outside of the increased rain/storm chances & potential for some drier air possibly. Stay tuned. /DC/ && .AVIATION... 12Z TAF discussion: Most sites are seeing MVFR to IFR flight categories this morning. KGLH/KGWO have VFR conditions and better flight categories should continue in these spots today as rain will likely hold off more. For all other sites, MVFR or lower flight categories will prevail as rain and stratus will hamper these sites through today. While rain may taper off for most this evening and overnight, MVFR to IFR, and some local LIFR conditions will occur thanks to low stratus. /28/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 77 70 83 71 / 90 46 73 44 Meridian 74 68 81 69 / 92 59 75 46 Vicksburg 79 71 84 71 / 83 26 67 38 Hattiesburg 77 71 84 72 / 100 76 82 40 Natchez 77 70 82 70 / 96 40 71 33 Greenville 83 68 85 70 / 31 13 54 32 Greenwood 82 68 85 70 / 35 14 53 37 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MSZ072>074. LA...None. AR...None. && DC/28/CME
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson MS 541 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023-025-MSZ018-019-025>052-161045- Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland- Madison LA-Franklin LA-Tensas-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada- Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha- Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena- Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin- Scott-Newton-Lauderdale- 541 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Tuesday. LAZ024-026-MSZ053>066-161045- Catahoula-Concordia-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke- Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis- Covington-Jones- 541 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Limited TIMING...Today through Tonight Rainfall up to four inches will be possible through tonight as Tropical Depression Nicholas moves through the region. This could lead to some localized flooding in urban and low lying areas. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Tuesday. MSZ072>074-161045- Marion-Lamar-Forrest- 541 AM CDT Wed Sep 15 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight FLOODING THREAT...Elevated TIMING...Today through Tonight Rainfall amounts of up to five inches may occur in association with Tropical Depression Nicholas. This may lead to areas of flash flooding, especially in urban and low lying areas. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Tuesday. 28 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *FLOODING* Extreme...Confident in significant flooding. Significant...Significant flooding possible. Elevated...Confident in flooding. Limited...Flooding possible. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Tropical page... https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan National Hurricane Center Home Page... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES... Current Watches and Warnings... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain Observed Precipitation Images... https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps River Forecast Center... https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/ Significant River Flood Outlook... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml Excessive Rainfall Discussion... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html Day 1 through 7 QPF... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml QPF Discussion... https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Street flooding occurred along parts of Sam Rayburn Drive.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, September 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 978497.