A strong occluded low pressure system was located in southeast Canada, resulting in scattered severe weather along the associated cold front across much of the northeast throughout the day. This same cold front extended southwestward and was approaching the Commonwealth throughout the overnight and morning hours on Wednesday.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A strong occluded low pressure system was located in southeast Canada, resulting in scattered severe weather along the associated cold front across much of the northeast throughout the day. This same cold front extended southwestward and was approaching the Commonwealth throughout the overnight and morning hours on Wednesday. Storms that developed along the front surged into eastern KY, creating an outflow boundary. It is along this boundary that rain showers continued to set up, bringing persistent rounds of rain to portions of the state. In addition, Tropical Depression Nicholas was moving onshore along the Gulf Coast near the TX and LA border, pumping a decent amount of low level moisture northward and into the Commonwealth. So not only was rain persistent, but it was efficient, resulting in high rainfall rates and amounts. The combination naturally resulted excessive rainfall, and reports of flash flooding, especially in Bath County, where highest rates, amounts, and longevity all combined together.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 15, 12:13 AM EST, 5 hours 47 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 113 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1115 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2021 A few showers made it in west of I-75 in the past hour or so. This is mainly due to some modest 925/850mb moisture transport, with our southwest counties on the fringe of this forcing as well as somewhat better instability. As such, have included some slight chance PoPs over the next few hours, before this activity likely dissipates with increasing mid-level CIN. Towards dawn, rain chances will ramp up from northwest to southeast, as an upstream cold front nudges closer to the area. This did result in an increase in the PoPs, especially towards the Bluegrass counties, given the latest higher resolution model trends. Also made some minor adjustments to the low temperatures and fog development tonight. These updates have been sent. UPDATE Issued at 815 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2021 Diurnally-driven cumulus and very isolated shower activity has waned across eastern Kentucky through dusk, although a few storms continue to fire up over the Cumberland Plateau in Tennessee. The forecast remains on track, and have mainly freshened up the temperature trace heading through the evening, accounting for the latest trends in the observations. Will assess the PoPs a bit later this evening. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 515 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2021 The prevailing westerlies aloft continued to flow across the CONUS just to our north this afternoon. Although the flow was rather flat, there was a large, low amplitude wave centered over the norther central CONUS. It was supporting a cold front passing southeast through the Midwest. To the south, Tropical Storm Nicholas was over coastal east TX. Deep moisture streaming from Nicholas was beginning to get picked up ahead of the mid latitude trough. As the trough continues slowly eastward, the cold front will approach us from the northwest. However, on Wednesday and Wednesday night it should stall and fade out as it nears the Appalachians due to its supporting upper trough continuing east and leaving it behind. Deep tropical moisture is forecast to get pulled northeast over our area on Wednesday along the front. This could support some locally heavy rainfall. A fair amount of instability coupled with some very modest shear associated with the trough glancing our area could also give a few storms with decent gusts. While localized flooding or damaging gusts can't be ruled out, the risk remains relatively low. The trough departs Wednesday night, and so does the best deep moisture. We should see any remain precip taper off. Clouds should also decrease somewhat, but to what extent is questionable. If there is enough breakup, fog could be an issue due to the lingering low level moisture. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 426 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2021 Heading into the extended period, a stationary boundary/cold front will be dissipating across KY by Thursday morning, as high pressure remains steady to our east. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Nicholas will continue to meander along the Lower Mississippi Valley, as it slowly weakens through the weekend. This set up/pattern will remain nearly steady state through the extended. The combination of return flow, and an influx of tropical moisture to our south, will set the stage for warm and humid conditions across the state through much of the extended. Although we won't see temperatures nearly as high as we did in late August, low to mid 80s are on tap most days through the extended, which is still well above normal for this time of year. Overnight lows will only bottom out in the low to mid 60s, also mild for this time of year. In addition to the warm and humid conditions, daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are on tap as well, especially during the afternoon/early evening hours. Best chances will be on Saturday, as an upper level low also pushes into the region, increasing the lift/instability. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) ISSUED AT 110 AM EDT WED SEP 15 2021 VFR to start the 06Z TAF period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today beginning this morning around 12Z across the west and coverage expanding eastward throughout the day. Some brief flight restrictions are possible if any of the stronger convection passes over or near a terminal. Light and variable winds this morning become SW around 5 kts today, and then become light and variable again late tonight. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...JMW AVIATION...CMF
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 316 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-161030- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 316 AM EDT Wed Sep 15 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible today into early tonight. A few of them may produce strong winds and heavy rainfall. Localized flash flooding is possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Thunderstorms are possible at times Thursday through Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. CMF/AR
The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 74 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:01 UTC.
4 flash flood, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Six inches of rainfall was estimated to have fallen since 7 am EDT on Naylor Road, just off of Hwy 111, north-northeast of Owingsville.
Water over White Oak Road just northwest of Owingsville has caused damage to the pavement along several portions of the road.
A resident on Naylor Road (off Hwy 111) reported cattle on their farm were washed about half a mile away due to flash flood waters.
A section of road near the intersection of Hwy 36 W and White Oak Road was reported impassable due to water over the road just northwest of Owingsville.
A picture posted by local broadcast media showed water over Hwy 111 making it impassable, about 6 miles northeast of Owingsville.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, September 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 987349, 987347, 987351, 987346, 987352.