A front was stalled across the southern part of Mississippi and a lone storm developed within a warm, moist airmass on the afternoon of March 15th. This storm produced severe hail.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
A front was stalled across the southern part of Mississippi and a lone storm developed within a warm, moist airmass on the afternoon of March 15th. This storm produced severe hail.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 15, 5:45 PM CST, 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 645 PM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021 .UPDATE... Updated for 00Z aviation discussion && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF discussion: VFR ceilings will continue this evening, but MVFR/IFR ceilings will develop after midnight and continue through noon Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain in the area through the period./GG/ && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Tuesday: The cold front which pushed into the area earlier this morning has begun to stall out as the mid/upper support pulls away to the northeast. In fact, southerly surface winds have kicked back in across much of the region, so it may already be wavering back slightly to the north. Scattered shower activity remains along the front, and with moderate mixed layer instability having developed to the south of it, additional isolated showers have filled in across parts of Southeast MS. With the lack of coherent forcing this evening, high res guidance is a mixed bag on whether much convection will redevelop. However, with 50-70 kt of effective deep layer shear still in place, any storms that are able to develop in this environment have the potential to be severe. With the diurnal increase in instability, the severe threat is expected to mostly decrease later in the overnight/early morning Tuesday though rain chances will persist. The front will remain quasi-stationary and situated across the northern portion of the area through the day tomorrow. Once again, forcing will be fairly subtle, but with a moist and unstable airmass, additional development of showers and thunderstorms is likely through the daytime. In addition, 40-60 kt of deep layer shear with developing moderate instability will again support the conditional potential for a few severe storms. Though convection may very well be ongoing by daybreak Tuesday morning, the potential for isolated severe weather appears greater in the afternoon as stronger instability develops. We will continue to highlight both of these threats in the HWO/graphics. /DL/ Tuesday Night through Monday: The primary concern remains the period of Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms - beginning Wednesday morning and lasting through Wednesday evening. Details are outlined below. Once the cold front clears our area Thursday morning, thunderstorm chances end and the forecast becomes more about temperatures. Looking specifically at the severe weather event on Wednesday, threats will evolve throughout the day, and timing is a bit hard to outline at this point still. The synoptic setup will feature an upper-level closed low pressure system moving east along the I-40 corridor, with a deepening surface low ahead of it. The old frontal boundary stretched across our area will probably be reinforced by daytime precip on Tuesday, but should start to lift northward as a warm front heading into Wednesday morning as warm air advection increases ahead of the low pressure system. There will be a risk for severe storms in the warm front zone (far northeast Louisiana, far southeast Arkansas, and northern Mississippi) early Wednesday morning, with some support for this scenario represented in the latest suite of high-res guidance. Deep layer wind shear and some veering in the lower level wind profile is enough to support all modes of severe weather as the front lifts north. Capping during the morning hours will limit storm potential farther south and in the wake of this initial wave of activity through the morning. Increasing low-level moisture advection and destabilization with daytime heating should see an uptick in shower and thunderstorm potential through the entire warm sector by Noon and into the afternoon. In southeastern Mississippi, higher moisture values may see convective initiation occur first before activity spreads northward. Depending on exact timing, if this wave can get organized during the afternoon, severe parameters including >2000 j/KG MLCAPE and 40-50 kts deep layer shear would support supercell thunderstorms. Finally, the main chance for thunderstorms and severe weather potential will accompany the sytem's cold frontal passage. Threats include damaging wind, hail, and tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Threats will end from west to east as the front passes through, ending everywhere by around midnight Wednesday night. After the severe weather episode ends Wednesday night, cold air advection and a slow-to-depart upper-level trough will keep conditions cool and breezy through Friday. A building upper-level ridge shifting east over the area and winds turning out of the southeast will see a gradual warming trend headed into early next week. /NF/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 64 79 65 83 / 37 74 54 89 Meridian 62 79 64 82 / 59 81 60 90 Vicksburg 64 81 66 81 / 38 59 54 90 Hattiesburg 64 79 65 83 / 65 79 31 88 Natchez 64 79 67 81 / 27 74 31 87 Greenville 59 78 64 78 / 12 25 76 95 Greenwood 62 78 64 79 / 22 39 74 95 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && GG
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson MS 419 PM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>030-032>038- 040>044-047>049-053>055-059>064-072-073-162130- Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland- Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar- Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Choctaw- Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Issaquena- Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Claiborne- Copiah-Simpson-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence- Jefferson Davis-Marion-Lamar- 419 PM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...Tuesday Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday Severe storms are likely from early Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night across northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and much of the state of Mississippi. These storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, hail up to golf ball size, and tornadoes. Some tornadoes could be strong. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region Tuesday through Wednesday night. MSZ031-039-045-046-050>052-056>058-065-066-074-162130- Lowndes-Noxubee-Neshoba-Kemper-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Smith- Jasper-Clarke-Covington-Jones-Forrest- 419 PM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THREAT...Marginal TIMING...Tonight through Tuesday Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible this evening and again Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts and hail. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png) .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday Severe storms are likely from early Wednesday morning through late Wednesday night across northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and much of the state of Mississippi. These storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, hail up to golf ball size, and tornadoes. Some tornadoes could be strong. (https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png) .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight through Wednesday night. NF && ...HAZARD LEGEND... *SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS* High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible. Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely with strong tornadoes possible. Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible. Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible. Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss ...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES... Storm Prediction Center (SPC)... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/ Meso Analysis... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/ Day 1 through 3 Outlooks... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ Storm Reports... https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
641 PM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021
MSZ049-160015-
Rankin MS-
641 PM CDT Mon Mar 15 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN RANKIN COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM CDT...
At 641 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Fannin, or near Madison, moving east at 35 mph.
Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Fannin around 645 PM CDT.
Goshen Springs around 655 PM CDT.
Pisgah around 700 PM CDT.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.
&&
LAT...LON 3239 9006 3242 9007 3244 9007 3244 9004
3248 9002 3248 8999 3250 8998 3249 8996
3254 8989 3255 8990 3259 8982 3259 8979
3245 8975
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 251DEG 28KT 3244 9002
CMEThe Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 25 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:52 UTC.
2 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A swath of nickel to quarter size hail occurred across northern Rankin County.
A swath of hail occurred across northern Scott County. Hail up to ping pong ball size occurred.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, March 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 948439, 948440.