High Wind and Strong Wind in California, March 15, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
346 AM PDT Mon Mar 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A storm system will bring a return to colder and wet
conditions today. This will lead to low elevation snowfall into
the foothills and down to pass level in Kern County. Strong gusty
winds will also accompany the system especially in the Kern
County mountains and deserts today. Dry weather and a warming
trend are expected Tuesday through Thursday. Storms moving north
of our area might bring some light precipitation at times Friday
through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Cold upper level low center with 540 dm heights associated with a
southwest to northeast orientated precipitation band currently
over central California is located over northern California per
latest 0940z satellite imagery. Already received about 0.02" here
at the weather office in Hanford. Things are looking very well on
track this morning as the low continues to move southward into
central California today. With this cold system temperatures will
only get to the lower 50s across the San Joaquin Valley and the
Kern County desert areas. There is only a 16 percent chance of
temperatures greater than or equal to 55 in Fresno and 33 percent
in Bakersfield today. Rainfall amounts in the SJV will range from
trace amounts on the western side of the valley to around a half
of inch in the eastern side of the valley. There is about a 90
percent chance of at least 0.14" of rainfall in Fresno today and
at least 0.18" of rainfall in Bakersfield today. However, higher
amounts are possible especially if we see any convective
development today. A slight chance of thunder has been added for
today in the western and central parts of the SJV. With the cold
air aloft decent instability will be present later this afternoon
and there are enough dynamics present with the close proximity of
the low to get a few rumbles of thunder, however at this time
organized convection is not expected but cold temperatures will
allow for pea size hail and ice pellets. A cold air funnel or two
would also not be out of the question. So get those winter coats
and rain slickers back out of the closet if venturing outside
today.

Snow levels later this morning will drop to around 2000 feet near
Yosemite and around 3000 feet in the Grapevine/Interstate 5 area
in Kern County. So some snow showers will definitely be possible
in the foothill areas today as this system moves through. We
currently have winter weather advisories in place for the southern
Sierra Nevada from Yosemite area to the Tulare/Kern County line
above about 4000 feet until 5 PM today and the Kern County
mountains above 3000 feet from 8 AM until 11 PM tonight to
address this winter weather concerns. In the Sierra locations we
are looking at 3 to 6 inches between 4000 to 5000 feet and 6 to 12
inches above 5000 feet and localized amounts up to 15 inches. For
the Kern County Mountains snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches between
3000 and 5000 feet and 2 to 5 inches above 5000 with some local
amounts in the highest elevations around 10 inches. If traveling
through the Grapevine today and tonight be aware that roads will
become slippery and it would be wise to keep tabs on CALTRANS
latest road conditions by calling 1-800-427-7623 to avoid being
stuck in traffic if closures become necessary. Postponing your
travels if possible would be the best tact.

Winds will also accompany this storm with tight pressure
gradients present on the south and west side of the system as it
moves through the region. The wind threat is addressed with the
winter weather advisories and we have also issued a wind advisory
for the Kern County desert areas today from 8 AM this morning
until 11 PM tonight. Gusts up to 55 mph will be possible,
especially in the wind favored pass areas and canyons.

By late tonight into early Tuesday morning the low will kick
eastward out to the four corners region and allow things to mostly
dry out and begin warming across the area. Increased clouds will
be a great bet for the southern parts of the SJV but there is also a
possibility though that in the northerly flow behind the system
that a few rain or snow showers will be possible over the Kern
County mountains with the upslope flow on Tuesday. Ridging will
begin to move into the region on Wednesday and will stick around
until late Thursday when another southward moving Gulf of Alaska
system begins to move into the region. At this time it looks as
though the main system will skirt the area to the north and east but
some light precipitation will be possible as a front associated
with the low moves through central California Friday through
late Saturday and possibly into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
In the Sierra Nevada, Kern County Mountains and
adjacent foothills, IFR conditions and mountain obscurations from
clouds and precipitation through 06Z Tue. In the San Joaquin
Valley, local MVFR ceilings due to low clouds through 00Z Tue.
Otherwise...VFR conditions can be expected across the central CA
interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for
CAZ192>194.

Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this
evening for CAZ195>197.

Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening
for CAZ198-199.

&&

public...Andersen
aviation....CMC

weather.gov/hanford