A weak cold front stalled across extreme northern Mississippi. Showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rain developed along this boundary.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A weak cold front stalled across extreme northern Mississippi. Showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rain developed along this boundary. These storms were slow-moving resulting in some flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 9, 10:42 AM CST, 33 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1142 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021 .UPDATE... 18Z Aviation Discussion && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1109 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021/ UPDATE... Weak surface boundary bisecting the forecast area is the focus for thunderstorms producing locally heavy rainfall. This area is sinking very slowly south. The forecast accounts for this feature and other pop-up storms that should develop with the diurnal cycle. JEB PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... A few showers still remain over the forecast area this morning as a weak front moved into the area overnight. This washed out boundary will serve focus for shower ands storm development this afternoon as the heating of the day will ignite these showers and storms. Temperatures are still expected to reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s today. The diurnal showers and storms should diminish into the evening hours, but short range guidance suggests a MCS or a line of storms moving into the northern portions of the forecast area late tonight into early Saturday morning. Some guidance moves this convection well into the area but the trend is for it to weaken as it moves into our forecast area tonight. Some guidance does not have any convection overnight into our area. We will have to watch the trends through the day to get a better handle on the situation as this will be more of a mesoscale issue overnight. With that being said...rain chances will just increase through the weekend as an upper low is expected to drop down from the north late Saturday into Sunday. This will bring a good chance of shower and storms to the region. Right now, the Storm Prediction Center has portions of the Mid South in a Slight Risk for severe weather on Saturday. This should cover the multiple waves of showers and storms that are expected during this time frame...but this would mainly cover late Saturday night into Sunday for our area as that disturbance/front moves down from the north. The risk is continued into Sunday but only as a Marginal Risk...but that too could change as more data becomes available. Right now, the main threats with the storms would be strong straight line winds and large hail. Another aspect with the multiple rounds/chances for storms would be heavy rainfall. Precipitable water values over the next few days will be in that 1.8 to 2.0 inch region which is generally an indicator for a very moisture rich atmosphere. Couple that with deep warm cloud layer and a fairly unidirectional flow up the column this points to slow moving or training showers and storms with a highly efficient rainfall. The Weather Prediction Center has portions of the Mid South...mainly across the Mississippi Delta in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Sunday. It is hard to pinpoint where heaviest rain will fall or the amounts a this time...but the likelihood for heavy rain will exist over a large portion of the Mid South on Sunday. The upper level system will pull out of the area by midweek. Rain chances will still be elevated on Monday and Tuesday as showers and storms will continue to be mainly diurnally driven. We should continue to see afternoon showers and storms through the rest of the week as the surface flow remain southwesterly keeping moisture in place for afternoon showers and storms. Temperatures will remain around normal through the period outside of the Sunday and Monday time frame. 13/MH && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF Showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. Conditions under any storms could go IFR/MVFR. Otherwise it should be VFR. Wind SSW 5-10kts occasional gusts to 20kts towards the end of the TAF set. SMW && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Memphis TN 1055 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021 ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017- 020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-101030- Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay- Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur- Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood- Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS- Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot- Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis- Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley- Yalobusha- 1055 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas... the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A few thunderstorms may produce heavy rainfall and ponding of water. Gusty winds is also possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday A Marginal to slight risk of severe weather exists for portions of the Mid-South on Saturday and Sunday. Clusters of storms will be possible both days with a few storms being strong or severe. Gusty winds and heavy rain will be the main threats. A Marginal to Slight risk of excessive rainfall exists for portions of the Mid South on Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Memphis TN 739 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021 TNZ092-091300- Hardin TN- 739 AM CDT Fri Jul 9 2021 ...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 800 AM CDT FOR... Southeastern Hardin County in western Tennessee... At 739 AM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing winds in excess of 40 mph was located near Olive Hill, or 8 miles east of Savannah, moving east at 30 mph. People in southeastern Hardin County should monitor this storm closely. LAT...LON 3511 8826 3527 8823 3528 8798 3505 8799 TIME...MOT...LOC 1239Z 277DEG 24KT 3518 8809
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 56 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 17:15 UTC.
3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A store was flooded with ankle-deep water due to a sewer backup.
Nail Road was closed due to flooding between Highway 61 and Honeysuckle Lane.
A family had to be rescued from their mobile home by boat due to flooding. Several vehicles were damaged.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 976164, 976169, 976249.