Several days of heavy to torrential rains and gusty winds were experienced across eastern Kentucky from July 9th through the 12th. A strong surface low pressure remained parked across Illinois to our WNW, with a frontal boundary expanding eastward and through Kentucky, sinking just south of the state to start the day on the 9th.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Several days of heavy to torrential rains and gusty winds were experienced across eastern Kentucky from July 9th through the 12th. A strong surface low pressure remained parked across Illinois to our WNW, with a frontal boundary expanding eastward and through Kentucky, sinking just south of the state to start the day on the 9th. During the day on the 9th and the 10th, the front began lifting northward through eastern Kentucky as a warm front, becoming the center for convective development, and also allowing for much deeper warm air and moisture advection into the region. As the front slowly continued just north of the state on the 11th and 12th, Kentucky found itself in the warm and unstable sector of the system, with showers and thunderstorms developing, peaking in coverage and intensity during the afternoon hours.
Given the warm environment, storms were generally low centroid and moisture laden, exhibiting well above normal PWats, in the 2 to 2.5 inch range. Soundings also showed shallow inverted V signatures, indicative of steep low level lapse rates and the ability to easily mix down higher winds aloft. Pulsy scattered convection with heavy rain and high wind gusts were the main concerns. Locations where multiple storms moved over saw high water and some instances of flash flooding. Other locations experienced thunderstorm wind damage as stronger winds transferred to the surface, especially as the storms were beginning the dissipating phase.
An 850 jet SW to NE, storms that NW to SE oriented were bowing.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 9, 7:04 AM EST, 33 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 804 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 750 AM EDT FRI JUL 9 2021 Showers and thunderstorms continue across eastern KY, but are finally making their final push out of the CWA and state. There are some new light showers trying to pop up in the northern CWA now which were not originally forecast, so will need to continue to monitor in case updates are needed to the pop/weather forecast. Otherwise, expect mostly dry conditions throughout the day still once this final push of storms exit east of the state...hopefully in the next 1 to 2 hours. Made some minor tweaks to the pop/weather grids over the last few hours, based on the latest radar and CAM trends. Also loaded in the latest observations for temps and winds, and made some minor tweaks to hourly diurnal curve, making sure the near term forecast was on track with the current conditions. All updates have been published and sent to NDFD/web. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 444 AM EDT FRI JUL 9 2021 At 730Z, a cold front was analyzed across the northern portion of KY, dropping southward. Storms and showers are ongoing as of 8Z just south of this boundary, encompassing mainly the northern and southern CWA. These storms have been setting up to our west and moving eastward, with several storms or clusters moving along the same trajectory. Furthermore, these storms seem to be moisture laden, with skinny CAPE and high freezing levels, producing heavy rainfall as they move through. This is supported by the 6Z to 9Z NAM soundings, suggesting well over 2 inches of PWats across portions of the CWA. A flash flood warning ended up being issued for the northern CWA for the repeated rounds of heavy rain and increasing totals, with portions of this area estimating over 4 inches. The cold front is expected to slowly sink south throughout the day, but based on the latest WPC frontal analysis, will likely become stationary across the southern portion of the state overnight. Meanwhile, a surface low will be moving eastward from the Central Plains, causing the westward portion of this front to begin lifting back northward as a warm front across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and western/central KY heading into Saturday. Based on the latest radar and satellite trends, the main area of precip and cloud cover is currently impacting the JKL CWA, as well as RLX to our NE and MRX/OHX to our SW. CAMs agree that ongoing precip will continue to shift eastward and out of the CWA through the morning hours, with very little upstream redevelopment. As a result, went with scattered to likely pops over the next few hours in the forecast, shifting eastward and exiting by afternoon as drier air filters into the state behind the front. Soundings show a large amount of dry air filtering into the mid and upper levels across the CWA, which will support skies clearing out throughout the day, save some scattered diurnally driven CU. As the front begins to lift back north as a warm front across the western CWA tonight, another surge of moisture will make its way farther into the state, regenerating the precip chances late. Global models show pops spreading from west to east late tonight, becoming likely to widespread across the entire CWA by Saturday as the front lays out across the state and slowly shifts northward. Meanwhile, the CAMs paint a different picture, with precip falling apart as it marches eastward towards the JKL CWA (save the HRRR which keeps scattered to numerous weaker pops in). So even on Day 2, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty. Trended towards the global models for now, given this is pretty far out in the CAM runs. WPC also includes our northern CWA in a Day 2 Marginal Excessive Rainfall risk. Given the amount of rain parts of this region have received overnight/early this morning, it won't take as much for them to have problems anyways. Latest NAM soundings do exhibit lesser PWATs with the Saturday storms compared to the ongoing ones, which is one good sign. Saturday also doesn't have much to be desired on a severe aspect. Lapse rates won't be as steep, CAPE values will fall under 2,000 J/kg, and winds will be variable throughout the column. SPC currently has us under a general thunder, with higher categorical outlooks across the western portion of the state. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 400 AM EDT FRI JUL 9 2021 Front across the area will lift north as a warm front towards the Great Lakes on Sunday. Meanwhile at the upper levels, a trough of low pressure over the northern plains will settle over the mid MS and OH valley regions through early next week. This trough will finally lift N/NE mid week only to have another wave approach from the NW later in the week. What this means for our wx locally is a prolonged moist southerly flow resulting in warm and humid conditions with daily chances for showers/storms, with the highest chances during the afternoon and early evening hours each day. Temperatures from Sunday through the end of next week will be fairly consistent with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s to around 70. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT FRI JUL 9 2021 A frontal boundary will remain across the area over the next couple of days, driving the weather conditions. Today, this front will drift southward as a cold front, allowing drier air to filter into much of the state from the W and NW. Ongoing shower/storms across the far eastern portion of the state should continue to exit during the first couple hours of the TAF period. MVFR CIGS will then begin scattering out, and VFR conditions will take hold for the remainder of the day. Winds will generally be out of the W to NW, 10 kts or less, with gusts up to 15 kts during the afternoon. Any diurnally driven CU will dissipate in the evening as we lose daytime heating, and winds will also subside. Given the recent heavy rains, it is likely that some of the region will see fog overnight. Guidance is pointing at MVFR VIS at the TAF sites, so trended this way...though the reality is that it will likely fluctuate from site to site. Clouds are also expected to begin moving back in during the late night hours from the west, which could drop CIGS to MVFR but may also increase the fog/VIS restrictions as a result. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && UPDATE...JMW SHORT TERM...JMW LONG TERM...CMF AVIATION...JMW
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 351 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-101100- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 351 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the pre-dawn hours today. Locally heavy rainfall is expected with these storms, which could lead to isolated instances of flooding, especially in low lying areas where multiple storms have moved through. Thunderstorms should dissipate during the day, but chances will return by late tonight, generally along and west of the I-75 corridor. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Thunderstorms are possible each day, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are asked to report any instances of flooding from the early morning storms. JMW/CMF
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
415 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021
KYZ107-109-110-119-090900-
Martin-Floyd-Johnson-Magoffin-
415 AM EDT Fri Jul 9 2021
...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MARTIN...JOHNSON...
NORTHWESTERN FLOYD AND NORTHEASTERN MAGOFFIN COUNTIES...
At 414 AM EDT, strong thunderstorms were clustered over Barnetts
Creek, or near Paintsville, moving east at 35 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Paintsville, Prestonsburg, Inez, Warfield, Add, Pilgrim, Oaklawn
Estates, Fitz, Davella, Oil Springs, Whitehouse, Meally, Prince,
Collista, West Van Lear, Williamsport, Offutt, Elna, Milo and Job.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 3768 8297 3787 8299 3790 8299 3789 8296
3797 8299 3800 8296 3797 8283 3791 8273
3788 8262 3789 8260 3795 8258 3796 8253
3794 8249 3794 8250 3790 8247 3791 8247
3788 8242 3781 8240 3776 8232
TIME...MOT...LOC 0814Z 273DEG 30KT 3783 8289
FISHERThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 59 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:35 UTC.
20 thunderstorm wind, 10 flash flood, 3 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Minor flooding of a structure occurred in Grethel.
A video that showed that flash flooding was occurring near the Pikeville Elementary School in Pikeville was posted to one of NWS Jackson KY's social media feeds.
Flash flooding was reported at a few locations around downtown Pikeville.
Multiple trees and power lines were reported down in the community of Martin.
Multiple trees and power lines were reported down in the community of Stanville.
Multiple trees and power lines were reported down in the community of Betsy Layne.
Multiple trees and power lines were reported down in the community of Shelbiana.
Multiple trees and power lines were reported down in the community of Mouthcard.
Multiple trees and power lines were reported down in the community of Phelps.
Flash flooding was observed along KY1428 in the city of Allen. One lane of the road was impassable.
Water of unknown depth was observed flowing across Hwy 89 at the Bypass and Winchester Rd in Irvine.
John Rawlings Road in Irvine was flooded.
Debris flows blocked roadways at the top of Chestnut Stand Road and Sweet Lick Road near Irvine.
Between roughly 403 and 418 pm, several homes along Geneva Ave in Irvine were damaged by flood waters. Several more homes had water flowing into them. A few water rescues were needed in this area as well.
Multiple trees and power lines were reported down in the community of Fedscreek.
Sweet Lick Road in Irvine had approximately 4 to 5 feet of water flowing across it.
Several inches of water were observed flowing across White Oak Road in Irvine.
Broadway St in Irvine had several inches of water flowing across it.
The Dispatch Office in Irvine had water flowing into the building. At least 3 inches of water had accumulated in the buildings basement and had also entered some of the duct work in 2 of the buildings offices.
A tree was blown down and onto Route 134 at U.S. 460 near Elsie.
A tree was blown down along River Road near Sloans Valley.
Multiple trees were blown down along Bauer Road.
A tree was blown down along Blue John Road near Alpine.
Multiple trees were blown down along KY Hwy 90. The trees took down powerlines.
A tree was blown down along north KY Route 11 near Green Road.
A tree was blown down along north KY Route 11 near Heidrick.
A tree was blown down along south KY Route 11 near Swanpond.
A tree was blown down along KY Route 225 near Warren.
A tree was knocked down by thunderstorm winds along Highway 221 in the community of Kettle Island.
Flashing flooding issues were reported along Blaines Branch just off of Hwy 52 past the intersection with Robinson Hollow Road. Roughly 2 feet of water was over the road and some of the black top was removed. The road had to be closed due to the flooding and damage to the road surface. A video was also shared with the NWS Jackson, KY weather office by the Lee County EM of a culvert being washed away.
A tree was blown down along Anglin Branch Road.
A tree was blown down near Cowcreek.
A tree was blown down on Highway 3 at mile marker 19 near Job.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 964717, 964715, 964716, 959834, 959835, 959836, 959829, 959832, 959837, 964706, 964707, 964708, 964709, 964710, 959833, 964711, 964712, 964713, 964714, 964697, 964698, 964699, 964700, 964701, 964702, 964703, 964704, 964705, 959838, 964721, 964718, 964719, 964720.