A surface low traveled along a stalled cold front that caused thunderstorms and flash flooding across north Mississippi and west Tennessee.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A surface low traveled along a stalled cold front that caused thunderstorms and flash flooding across north Mississippi and west Tennessee.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 29, 5:33 AM CST, 4 hours 42 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 533 AM CST Wed Dec 29 2021 .UPDATE... Updated 12z Aviation Discussion. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 415 AM CST Wed Dec 29 2021/ DISCUSSION... An active pattern is in store for the Mid South through the rest of the week and into the weekend. The first active day will be today. Warm, moist, and unstable atmosphere is in place over the region...more like spring weather...and a front will be pushing into the area. This will trigger showers and thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has now an Enhanced Risk of Severe Weather over portions of north Mississippi and a Slight to Marginal Risk surrounding it. We have been talking about this for the last few days and nothing has really changed. This is a tricky forecast as all the ingredients will be around but will the manifest into severe storms. Instability will depend upon factors like the extent of morning showers and whether any breaks in the clouds develop that allow for some heating. It looks as though that there is a window for severe weather mainly over north Mississippi this afternoon into the evening hours. This threat is conditional but it has a fairly high ceiling...if a few storms can get going they should have the environment where they will rotate and have the chance to put down a few tornadoes. Helicity should be the highest across northeast Mississippi and LCL heights are expected to be very low and it will not take a whole lot for tornado development if a storm can take advantage of the atmosphere that will be in place. Another thing to watch is the potential for Flash Flooding...the atmosphere will be very moist and storms will be efficient rain producers. There will be a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall over the Mid South. As the main support pushes east and things quiet down toward midnight expect the stalled front to remain over the area and perhaps some fog developing by morning across northern parts of the area. We catch a break on Thursday, and we will be watching for the next system for Friday into Saturday. Expect surface low pressure to develop in the lee of the Rockies with increasing southern flow and moisture across the Mid-South on Friday. Very warm temps will continue. Expect scattered to numerous showers by the afternoon. A piece of upper level system will move into southern plains Friday night into Saturday with a deep upper trough trailing behind. This system has the potential to produce severe weather as well...however this system may bring more of a flooding threat than a severe threat. Precipitable Water values will be in the 1.4-1.7 inch range which is probably over the daily max observed for these days. The atmosphere is going to be very moist. The Weather Prediction Center highlights portions of the area with a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for Friday into Saturday. WPC mentions rain rates of 2 inches per hour possible with rainfall totals up to 4 inches. This Slight may be upgraded to a moderate risk as this seems to be a strong heavy rain signal for the Mid South. Stay weather aware through this week. Then much colder air will push into the area Sunday...lows will be in the 20s and highs Sunday in the 30s...that is a huge change for the mid 70s we have been seeing. Monday and Tuesday...High pressure build in for early next week with moderating temps. MH && .AVIATION... /12z TAFs/ To start, a cold front is currently over the JBR area allowing dense fog to settle. MKL is experiencing fog as well and MEM should be next within the hour. Toward TUP showers will continue to push northeast, which should last until about 14z. With that being said MVFR to IFR conditions are expected this AM. Flash forward to the afternoon, the front will continue to dive south and affect all TAF sites around 20z. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the evening hours. Behind the front, fog will develop overnight and dissipate after the TAF period. SWB && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Memphis TN 514 AM CST Wed Dec 29 2021 ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017- 020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-301315- Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay- Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur- Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood- Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS- Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot- Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis- Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley- Yalobusha- 514 AM CST Wed Dec 29 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas... the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight A round of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening, mainly across north Mississippi. The best time for storms is mid day Wednesday through mid evening Wednesday. Main threats are damaging winds and flash flooding. Tornadoes and hail are secondary threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday Another round of severe thunderstorms is possible Saturday across most of the Mid South. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in place over portions of the Mid South Friday night into Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed Today and Saturday in support of severe weather. Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.
The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 88 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 16:16 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Numerous high water rescues in Bruce, extending out to surrounding rural areas.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, December 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 996482.