Slow moving afternoon storms near a stalled frontal boundary resulted in flash flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAN wrote it up.
Slow moving afternoon storms near a stalled frontal boundary resulted in flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 2, 1:51 PM CST, 1 hour 34 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 251 PM CDT Mon Aug 2 2021 .DISCUSSION... Tonight and tomorrow: The bulk of morning convection has moved out to the east in the wake of an occluded front in S MS. For the rest of the afternoon into tonight, the bulk of convection will be confined to the southern parts of the CWA, where daytime heating is taking place, indicated by breaks in cloud cover via satellite imagery. The majority of CAM models are in agreement for the development of afternoon storms in the south, which is increasing confidence. PW values > 2.0 inches will also keep the air moist enough to produce showers, while CAPE values are continuing to support an environment for thunderstorms in the south throughout the evening. Following this southward moving front, dry air will gradually propagate south into central MS, decreasing rain chances in the early morning hours of Tuesday. Patchy fog will be possible for the majority of the area tomorrow morning. Overnight temperatures will range from the high 60s to low 70s. A more comfortable and noticeably less muggy Tuesday morning is on tap for MS with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. With the slow moving boundary near the MS Gulf coast, showers and thunderstorms will stay confined to along and south of I20 throughout the late morning and afternoon. Rain chances will diminish by the evening. /AJ/ Tuesday Night through Weekend... By Tuesday night, any lingering influence from the frontal boundary will be confined to far southern areas as the front stalls along the Gulf Coast. The large scale pattern will consist of west coast ridging and east coast troughing through much of the period, with remnant negative 500 mb height anomalies in the area. The primary trough axis will be east of the ArkLaMiss putting us under northwest flow aloft and in a drier surface airmass with weak northerlies into late week. This will result in below average temperatures and limited heat stress as maximum daily heat indices stay in the middle 90s F. Rain chances will be subsequently lower with less available boundary layer moisture (PWAT may dip below 1" in northern areas). Near the remnant front, some elevated rain chances may remain, mostly confined to the highway 84 corridor. By weekend, the upper troughing begins to move north and easy away from the area and upper heights rise. This will also be accompanied by increasing surface pressure and a return to weak southerly flow. This will likely result in an increasing trend in our afternoon highs as well as higher humidity through the column as PWATs surge from 1-1.25" as we start the forecast period to 1.75-2+" by Sunday. Rain chances may increase a bit with the rising humidity and temperatures, with the chances of isolated afternoon/evening showers and storms becoming more seasonal. While excessive heat is not currently expected, it wouldn't take a significant increase in forecast temperatures over the weekend to result in the need for hazardous weather products. This will be monitored over successive forecast cycles. /86/ && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF discussion: Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to move out to the east. Sites HBG,PIB,MEI, will be between MVFR and MFR throughout the afternoon. Storms may redevelop in the late afternoon/evening that will affect sites along and S of I20. Low stratus and patchy fog may affect all sites in the overnight hours. PIB/HBG may reach IFR thresholds due to this. /AJ/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 71 87 68 89 / 65 24 2 4 Meridian 69 86 67 90 / 69 35 3 13 Vicksburg 72 89 69 90 / 62 16 2 4 Hattiesburg 72 86 70 91 / 74 72 16 20 Natchez 71 86 68 89 / 71 35 4 7 Greenville 67 86 65 88 / 20 8 1 3 Greenwood 67 89 64 89 / 20 6 1 3 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && AJ/LP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson MS 245 PM CDT Mon Aug 2 2021 ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074- 031945- Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland- Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar- Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes- Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston- Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper- Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah- Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln- Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest- 245 PM CDT Mon Aug 2 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and south central Mississippi. .DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and emergency management personnel in support of severe weather operations is not expected through next Sunday. 33 && ...HAZARD LEGEND... No short term hazards expected. ...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)... NWS JAN Home page... https://www.weather.gov/jan Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page... https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe Latest Weather Briefing... https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing Tropical page... https://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=jan National Hurricane Center Home Page... https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Find NWS JAN on Facebook... https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Twitter... @NWSJacksonMS Follow NWS JAN on Youtube... https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Water flowed across Old Richburg Road.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, August 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 964549.