Blizzard in Minnesota, January 14 to 15, 2021

Name: Blizzard in Minnesota, January 14 to 15, 2021
Start: 2021-01-14T14:30
End: 2021-01-15T18:00
Location: Minnesota

January 14 to 15, 2021 · NWS ABR · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

A strong area of Canadian low pressure dropped into the Northern Plains from late Wednesday, January 13th into Friday, January 15th 2021. Snowfall of 1 to 3 inches combined with strong wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph to produce blizzard conditions during the afternoon of the 14th through the morning of the 15th.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS ABR wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Aberdeen, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 14, 11:59 AM CST, 2 hours 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 14, 11:59 AM CST, 2 hours 31 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1159 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1159 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021

Radar returns should continue to expand across northeast sd and west
central mn into the afternoon hours. Therefore, expect snow to start
in the early afternoon with vsbys falling. High winds were already
occurring across the cwa and will continue into the afternoon and
night. Still expect blizzard conditions to develop in northeast sd
and west central mn into this afternoon, continuing into Friday. The
ops models, high res models, and ensembles all show decent amounts
of snowfall across northeast sd and west central mn. Therefore,
current warnings across the region look fine.

18z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 524 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021

See updated aviation discussion below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 311 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021

A frontal boundary moved through the area last evening, and now
beginning to see a tightening pressure gradient behind it. Winds
already gusting over 40 mph across the central part of the state,
and expect these to increase and spread eastward today. Mixed layer
winds off Bufkit continue to indicate values of 50 to 65 knots, so
will keep the High Wind Warning in place across the west and central
CWA this morning through the day Friday when the gradient finally
begins to relax as high pressure approaches.

As far as the eastern CWA is concerned, looking at a messier
situation as wrap around snow on the back side of the low to the
east develops by this afternoon and continues into Friday afternoon.
Snowfall amounts east of the James River Valley look to generally be
in the 2 to 5 inch range, with the highest amounts expected along
the west side of the Coteau. Concern then becomes what the result of
the strong winds and falling snow will be. Blowing snow model
indicates 30 to 35 mph winds at a minimum will be needed in
combination with falling snow to create near blizzard to blizzard
conditions. Therefore, have issued a Blizzard Warning for the area
east of the James River Valley for this afternoon through the day
Friday.

One other concern is fire danger over the far western CWA, where the
strong winds will combine with the lack of snow cover and 30 to 35
percent relative humidities to result in very high to extreme fire
danger. Therefore, will stick with a Red Flag Warning for the
zones west of the Missouri River for this afternoon.

High temperatures today will be in the 30s, with lows tonight in the
lower to mid 20s. Highs on Friday be in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021

Temperatures will remain a little above average through the weekend
and into the start of the work week before a clipper drifts in from
the northwest. Temperatures out ahead of this feature may result in
mixed precipitation, however timing (mid-day) would suggest a
rain/snow mix before transitioning to snow. Potential evidence that
there may be some banding on the north side of the system as it dips
across the CWA, but at this point that's all very speculative. It is
a weak clipper and winds not particularly substantial at this point
either.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1159 AM CST Thu Jan 14 2021

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

High winds from 30 to 40 knots with gusts over 55 knots at times
will remain through the taf period at all airports. Otherwise,
expect IFR/MVFR vsbys in snow and blowing snow to settle in at ATY
and remain into Friday morning. ABR may also have a period of snow.
Otherwise, expect VFR ceilings at ABR, PIR, and MBG to become
low VFR/MVFR through the afternoon and night.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...High Wind Warning until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Friday for
     SDZ003>006-009-010-015>018-033>037-045-048-051.

     Blizzard Warning until 6 PM CST Friday for SDZ007-008-011-
     019>023.

     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM CST /4 PM MST/ this afternoon for
     SDZ003-015-033-045-048.

MN...Blizzard Warning until 6 PM CST Friday for MNZ039-046.

&&

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Mohr

Hazardous weather outlook, Jan 13, 4:10 PM CST, 22 hours 20 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
410 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021

MNZ039-046-SDZ007-008-011-019>023-142215-
Traverse-Big Stone-Marshall-Roberts-Day-Clark-Codington-Grant-Hamlin-
Deuel-
410 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Minnesota and
northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Winds will increase into the 25 to 40 mph range after midnight,
along with the potential for some light rain or light snow.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Very windy conditions are expected across the area Thursday and
Friday, with wind gusts in excess of 50 mph possible. There is also
a chance for snow, with the potential for 2 to 4 inches of
accumulation, with higher amounts possible. The falling snow and
strong winds will combine to create reduced visibilities creating
hazardous travel conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are encouraged
to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The
public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our
Twitter feed.

SDZ004>006-009-010-016>018-034>037-051-142215-
Campbell-McPherson-Brown-Walworth-Edmunds-Potter-Faulk-Spink-Sully-
Hughes-Hyde-Hand-Buffalo-
410 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota, north
central South Dakota and northeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Winds will increase into the 25 to 40 mph range after midnight,
along with the potential for some light rain or light snow.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Very windy conditions are expected across the area Thursday and
Friday, with wind gusts in excess of 55 mph possible. There is also
a chance for snow, with the potential for up to one inch of
accumulation. However, any falling snow will combine with the strong
winds to create reduced visibilities and the potential for hazardous
travel conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are encouraged
to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The
public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our
Twitter feed.

SDZ003-015-033-045-048-142215-
Corson-Dewey-Stanley-Jones-Lyman-
410 PM CST Wed Jan 13 2021 /310 PM MST Wed Jan 13 2021/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central South Dakota and
north central South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Winds will increase into the 25 to 40 mph range after midnight,
along with the potential for some light rain or light snow.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Very windy conditions are expected across the area Thursday and
Friday, with wind gusts up to 60 mph possible.

Very high grassland land fire danger can be expected Thursday
afternoon. A red flag warning has been issued.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be requested. Weather spotters are encouraged
to submit reports to the National Weather Service in Aberdeen. The
public can submit reports on our web page, Facebook page, or our
Twitter feed.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jan 14, 11:42 AM CST, 2 hours 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1142 AM CST THU JAN 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0914 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 7 N FREDERICK           45.93N 98.53W
01/14/2021  M59 MPH          BROWN              SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 49 FREDERICK (SDDOT).

&&

TMT

Local storm report, Jan 14, 11:43 AM CST, 2 hours 47 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1143 AM CST THU JAN 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 E DANFORTH            44.24N 98.77W
01/14/2021  M58 MPH          HAND               SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION RHUS2 DANFORTH 5 E.

&&

TMT

Local storm report, Jan 14, 11:45 AM CST, 2 hours 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1145 AM CST THU JAN 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1139 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 WNW SUMMIT            45.31N 97.05W
01/14/2021  M58 MPH          ROBERTS            SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 55 SUMMIT (SDDOT).

&&

TMT

Local storm report, Jan 14, 12:58 PM CST, 1 hour 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1258 PM CST THU JAN 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 10 SW LONG LAKE         45.77N 99.36W
01/14/2021  M70 MPH          MCPHERSON          SD   MESONET

            MESONET STATION 184 EUREKA (SDDOT).

&&

TMT

Local storm report, Jan 14, 12:59 PM CST, 1 hour 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1259 PM CST THU JAN 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 1 W ROSCOE              45.45N 99.35W
01/14/2021  M58 MPH          EDMUNDS            SD   CO-OP OBSERVER

            CO-OP OBSERVER STATION ROSS2 ROSCOE.

&&

TMT

Local storm report, Jan 14, 1:00 PM CST, 1 hour 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
100 PM CST THU JAN 14 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 3 ESE ABERDEEN          45.45N 98.42W
01/14/2021  M58 MPH          BROWN              SD   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KABR ABERDEEN RGNL AP.

&&

TMT

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

2 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.

Blizzard, Traverse

When: January 14, 2:30 PM CST to January 15, 6:00 PM CST
Where: Traverse forecast zone
Reported by: Department of Highways
Coordinates: 45.772, -96.472 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Blizzard, Big Stone

When: January 14, 3:30 PM CST to January 15, 6:00 PM CST
Where: Big Stone forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS
Coordinates: 45.426, -96.411 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

What these are

Blizzard: Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph or more with falling or blowing snow that cuts visibility below a quarter mile for three hours or longer.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Minnesota in 2021 Every state in 2021 This day in weather history Warnings in Minnesota, January 2021

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 939954, 939953.