Extreme Cold in Minnesota, February 8, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1129 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 352 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2021

Frigid temperatures continue into and through the work week with
brutally cold wind chills possible at times. Short and long term
precipitation chances are minimal, though the possibility for lake
effect snow along the South Shore should continue.

Temperatures across the region have struggled to crawl back up from
the numbingly cold levels they reached last night. As of 3pm, no
reporting stations in the CWA have reached 0 degrees F. Tonight will
be yet another bitterly cold period. A Wind Chill Warning is in
effect in northern MN where wind chill values will once again dive
into the -40s. South of Hwy 2 in MN and across NW WI a Wind Chill
Advisory is in effect for possible wind chill values from
-25 to -35. Overnight winds will be light for most as an area of
high pressure dominates the upper Midwest. This may lead to less
severe wind chills, but colder actual temperatures if winds become
decoupled. With cold NW flow in place, gusty katabatic winds are
possible along the North Shore of Lake Superior. A 500mb shortwave
moving across the region may bring some cloudy skies to the southern
portion of the warning area which could initially keep temperatures
from plummeting too far for those along our CWA's southern edge.
However, this disturbance is expected to largely move out before
13Z, which could cause these areas to see rapidly falling
temperatures before sunrise as skies clear. It appears that most
folks will again stay below 0 degrees tomorrow.

Lake effect snow over the very northern tip of Bayfield County has
been leading to light accumulations, particularly in the higher
elevations north of Bayfield. This precipitation appears to be very
sensitive to wind direction, as a slight wind shift to the WSW caused
skies to clear over the area this afternoon. With winds turning back
to the WNW overnight, we expect lake effect snow to again return to
that region, with accumulations of up to an inch possible.

Plenty of cold air and chances for lake effect snow along the south
shore of Lake Superior will continue through much of Tuesday through
Sunday. The models are in decent agreement with the placement of the
upper low over Canada and keeping the cold air over the region into
Tuesday and Wednesday, although there will be some slight moderation
in temperatures as seen with 850MB temperatures rising some,
especially over southern portions of the Northland. There is
divergence that develops among the models Thursday with the GFS
dropping the upper low further south with brings in a reinforcing
shot of colder air. The ECMWF forecasts some light snow Thursday
with a passing shortwave but then falls in line closer to the GFS
with the cold air moving further south. We lean toward the GFS
solution with the main snow chances confined to lake effect along
the South Shore.

Overnight lows across the area Tuesday night into next weekend will
continue to be well below zero, from 15 below to 30 below. There may
be some even colder values if any area can decouple under clear
skies. Additional Wind Chill Advisories will likely be needed and
perhaps some warnings as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1128 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2021

VFR conditions expected throughout the TAF period. A few light
snow showers may briefly pass over KBRD and KHYR, but do not
expect them to last very long. Winds will be a little gusty
tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH -20  -5 -17   0 /   0   0   0   0
INL -30 -10 -23  -5 /   0   0   0   0
BRD -20  -3 -16   1 /   0   0   0   0
HYR -17  -1 -16   4 /   0   0   0   0
ASX -17   0 -15   4 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for WIZ001>004.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for WIZ006>009.

MN...Wind Chill Warning until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ010>012-018>021-
     026.

     Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for MNZ025-033>037.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for MNZ038.

LS...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Levens/Melde
AVIATION...Wolfe

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
545 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2021

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-081130-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
545 PM CST Sun Feb 7 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Dangerous cold and life-threatening wind chills continue tonight.
Wind chill values will range from around 30 to 50 degrees below
zero. Wind Chill Warnings and Advisories are in effect for the
entire Northland.

Lake-effect snow showers are possible over the northern portions
of the Bayfield Peninsula tonight. Snow accumulation up to an inch
is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Arctic air will remain in place over the Northland during the
next 7 days. Dangerous wind chills are expected each night, and
wind chills during the daytime hours will only climb into the
teens and 20s below zero. Wind Chill Warnings and Advisories
remain in effect through Tuesday morning and additional warnings
and advisories will be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

Huyck

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)