A lake effect snow band dropped moderate snowfall into portions of southern Schoolcraft County on the 19th.
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The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
A lake effect snow band dropped moderate snowfall into portions of southern Schoolcraft County on the 19th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 19, 1:43 AM EST, 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 143 AM EST Fri Feb 19 2021 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 405 PM EST THU FEB 18 2021 A weak and sheared shortwave moved through this morning with more widespread snow showers in moisture coming off Lake Michigan. Overall, cloud cover has been a bit less extensive across the west-central zones than previously forecast allowing temperatures to warm a bit more than expected. I continued this temperature trend through the short term with 75th percentile temperatures for lows tonight due to warmer Tmaxes and overnight cloud cover. Also maintained 75th percentile for highs tomorrow when the model certainty tool showed BC guidance clustering and a general lack of cold air behind the weak cold front. This cold front is expected to pass through late on Friday with potential for a slight uptick in snow shower intensity. The atmosphere is expected to dry out quickly behind the front with clouds clearing from west-to-east. A more substantial shortwave trough is approaching from the west and the combination of weak synoptic scale lift and diurnal heating has allowed for widespread snow shower development in the past hour or so. Visible satellite also shows breaks in the clouds filling in with a more overcast cloud deck developing. I'm expecting overcast skies will persist through Friday afternoon when they should begin clearing from west-to-east. I generally adjusted WPC QPF grids down a bit today with just a few hundredths of QPF expected at SLRs around 15 or 20:1. The one exception is the Garden Peninsula where I added a couple hundredths to account for the possibility of a mesolow enhancing snowfall. I only have 2 inches of snowfall in this location, but lake-850mb delta Ts around 18C, deep moisture, diurnally enhanced land breeze, and increasing synoptic scale forcing supports potential for an organized snow band/mesolow. Additionally, streamers coming off Lake Ontario are apparent on visible satellite and a slug of moisture is evident on APX's radar, which also occurred with LES snowfall in this area last weekend. Briefly considered a WWA for southern Schoolcraft/Delta counties, but 12z model guidance kept this feature farther offshore than previous 00z guidance so decided against it. 18z Guidance tells a similar tale, but this is still the most noteworthy feature in the short term. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 142 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2021 Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb trough in the western U.S. and a trough over the east 12z Sat. A shortwave ridge moves into the upper Great Lakes on Sat. The trough moves into the plains 12z Sun and into the upper Great Lakes by Sun night. Nam shows some deeper moisture and 850-500 mb q-vector convergence moving through on Sun night. WIll bump pops up a bit across the south for Sun afternoon and Sun evening, but area seems to be on northern end of this system. In the extended, the GFS and ECMWF show a 500 mb ridge across the western U.S. and a trough across the eastern U.S. 12z Mon. Zonal flow moves into the northern and central U.S. 12z Tue. Troughing moves into the Rockies 12z Wed. This trough heads east, but misses the area for Thu and Fri. Temperatures look to be above normal for this forecast period with a cool down towards the end. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1143 PM EST THU FEB 18 2021 Sct -shsn will continue across the area thru today. While conditions at KIWD/KCMX/KSAW will likely be prevailing MVFR, expect some periods of VFR. Some periods of IFR vis are possible as well. By evening, conditions should improve to prevailing VFR as -shsn diminish/end. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 405 PM EST THU FEB 18 2021 Guidance continues to suggest light winds of 20 kts or less are expected across the lake through Sunday. Southerly winds around 20- 25 kts are likely on the east half Sunday afternoon. Some SW winds around 20 kts are then possible on the west half on Monday, particularly between the Keweenaw and Isle Royale. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && SHORT TERM...EK LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...EK
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Marquette MI 414 PM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-192115- Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce- Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft- Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft- 414 PM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 /314 PM CST Thu Feb 18 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western Upper Michigan and central Upper Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight Scattered light snow showers may result in slippery spots on roads and sidewalks. The snow accumulation will be minor across most of the area, but an inch or so of accumulation is possible at a few spots near Lake Michigan. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-192115- Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI- Black River to Ontonagon MI- Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI- Eagle River to Manitou Island MI- Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI- Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI- Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI- Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI- Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle Royale National Park- Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border- Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border- 414 PM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 /314 PM CST Thu Feb 18 2021/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Eastern Lake Superior...Central Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LMZ221-248-250-192115- Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI- 5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage- 414 PM EST Thu Feb 18 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. JLB
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
A spotter seven miles east of Garden measured nine inches of lake effect snow in approximately 18 hours. There was also a report of six inches of snow eight miles south of Thompson during this time.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 950398.