Winter Storm in Michigan, February 15 to 16, 2021

Name: Winter Storm in Michigan, February 15 to 16, 2021
Start: 2021-02-15T18:00
End: 2021-02-16T09:00
Location: Michigan

February 15 to 16, 2021 · NWS IWX · 5 events in 5 counties and zones

A burst of moderate to heavy snow accumulated to between 6 and 8 inches late in the afternoon on February 15th through the early morning hours of February 16th. Intense snowfall rates and gusty winds led to significant blowing and drifting with many roads becoming impassible.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 5

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS IWX wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 15, 3:27 PM EST, 2 hours 33 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 15, 3:27 PM EST, 2 hours 33 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
327 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 323 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

Snow will rapidly overspread the area into early evening, becoming
heavy at times. Snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches an hour in
addition to blowing and drifting snow will make travel dangerous
into Tuesday morning. Wind chill values will range from 10 below
zero to zero early Tuesday morning. Visit our webpage for the
latest advisories and warnings.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

...Rapidly deteriorating driving conditions expected...

Entire forecast area now under a Winter Storm Warning with
confidence growing for widespread impacts into the overnight
hours. Some adjustments were made to snow amounts, especially in
the former advisory area.

Area of snow was rapidly expanding and moving north across our
southern counties. Timing of the arrival was sped up to account
for this. Given the faster timing, QPF and subsequent snow
amounts were increased through 00Z mainly along and south of
US-24. Snowfall rates are still expected to peak in the 1 to 2
inch per hour range late this afternoon into this evening with
high confidence exhibited by HREF guidance. Final snow amounts are
going to come down to 1) final QPF, which continues to trend
higher 2) Snow Liquid Ratios (anywhere from 16:1 SE to around 20:1
or higher in the NW) and 3) potential for mesobanding/convective
snow bands and resultant higher amounts. Grids now reflect only
the expected snowfall from 18Z today into Tuesday morning with a
solid 8 to 10 inches of snow expected across much of the area
(somewhat lower in NW areas) with the potential for a foot or more
of snow in some locations. Winds have also been increased
slightly with gust potential still in the 25 to 30 mph range.
Drifting snow will be a huge problem with blowing snow and the
heavy snow rates reducing visibility to a quarter mile or less at
times. Snow plow operations will likely prove challenging in many
areas this evening until winds and snow rates diminish. The Tues
morning commute will likely be quite difficult in many areas.

A side note regarding record daily snowfalls for SBN and FWA for
the 15th. Based on current forecasts, FWA record of 4 inches in
1908 will be buried in a large snowbank since the bulk of the snow
will fall by midnight. The record for the 16th is 5.7 inches
(probably safe). At SBN, the record for the 15th is quite likely
safe at 11.5 inches in 1991.

The snow should taper off overnight from S to N, with some
indications that it could end a bit quicker than currently shown.
The end time for all headlines remains unchanged at 10 AM EST. Not
to add insult to injury but wind chills between 10 below and zero
are expected late tonight, which while not in advisory criteria
could pose a danger for anyone that may be stranded overnight
outdoors.

Luckily, much quieter conditions will be in store Tuesday to give
everyone a chance to dig out. Yet another lake effect band is
expected to develop Tuesday which may impact portions of LaPorte
county with some additional accumulations possible. Depending on
how things pan out, some modifications could be needed to
headlines for LaPorte county but for now have left alone.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 323 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

Skies will clear out Tuesday night allowing for a cold night with
lows around zero and quite likely below zero in some areas. Saving
grace will be wind should be light keeping wind chills in the same
general range.

We will then focus on Wednesday night into Thursday when a very
similar setup will take place with the next northern stream wave
that shows signs of becoming negatively tilted and possibly a more
NW track then depicted. The NAM remains the most aggressive with
closed 700 mb low tracking to our NW, with all other models more
open and somewhat more suppressed. Suspicion is more of a NW
track, but this could also introduce more warm air than is being
seen with the current system which will impact precip type and
SLRs.

Signals continue towards an end to the cold pattern as we head
into the weekend and next week with temperatures possibly heading
above freezing. Extensive snowpack may limit amount of warm up
initially with subsequent concerns for melting snow/hydro issues
slowly ramping up.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1215 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

Impressive storm with intense 850-800mb frontogenetic forcing and
deep moisture will provide reduction to LIFR later this evening.
North-northeast winds increase as surface low ejects northeast
through Tennessee into Ohio Valley overnight with increased
likihood of blowing snow providing further impediment to runway
conditions/visibility restrictions. Period of most intense
snowfall rates first half of tonight /approx 23-06 UTC/ over
northern Indiana coincident with strongest vertical motion
profiles. Thereafter slow improvement with diminishing snowfall
rates in latter part of forecast period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/ Tuesday for
     INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034.

MI...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Tuesday for MIZ077>081.

OH...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ001-002-004-
     005-015-016-024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Murphy
SHORT TERM...Fisher
LONG TERM...Fisher
AVIATION...Murphy

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Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 15, 2:54 PM EST, 3 hours 6 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
254 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-161100-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
254 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021 /154 PM CST Mon Feb 15 2021/

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST /9 AM CST/
TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Indiana, southwest
Michigan and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter snowfall reports are appreciated.

LMZ043-046-161100-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
254 PM EST Mon Feb 15 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters of
southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

5 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.

Winter Storm, Berrien

When: February 15, 6:00 PM EST to February 16, 9:00 AM EST
Where: Berrien forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS

A six to nine hour period of moderate to heavy snow created difficult travel and travel restrictions with many roads becoming impassible. Snowfall totals ranged between 6 and 8 inches across the county, with 8.0 inches reported 1 mile west-northwest of Buchanan. Intense snowfall rates and gusty winds created reduced visibilities less than a quarter of a mile at times. Many schools and businesses were closed on February 16th. There were also reports of slide-offs, vehicles getting stuck in deep snow drifts, and accidents across the region.

Winter Storm, Cass

When: February 15, 6:00 PM EST to February 16, 9:00 AM EST
Where: Cass forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 41.915, -85.993 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A six to nine hour period of moderate to heavy snow created difficult travel and travel restrictions with many roads becoming impassible. Snowfall totals ranged between 6 and 8 inches across the county, with 6.5 inches near Barron Lake. Intense snowfall rates and gusty winds created reduced visibilities less than a quarter of a mile at times. Many schools and businesses were closed on February 16th. There were also reports of slide-offs, vehicles getting stuck in deep snow drifts, and accidents across the region.

Winter Storm, St. Joseph

When: February 15, 6:00 PM EST to February 16, 9:00 AM EST
Where: St. Joseph forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 41.914, -85.528 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A six to nine hour period of moderate to heavy snow created difficult travel and travel restrictions with many roads becoming impassible. Snowfall totals ranged between 6 and 8 inches across the county, with 7.0 inches reported 2 miles northeast of Three Rivers. Intense snowfall rates and gusty winds created reduced visibilities less than a quarter of a mile at times. Many schools and businesses were closed on February 16th. There were also reports of slide-offs, vehicles getting stuck in deep snow drifts, and accidents across the region.

Winter Storm, Branch

When: February 15, 6:00 PM EST to February 16, 9:00 AM EST
Where: Branch forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 41.916, -85.059 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A six to nine hour period of moderate to heavy snow created difficult travel and travel restrictions with many roads becoming impassible. Snowfall totals ranged between 6 and 8 inches across the county. Intense snowfall rates and gusty winds created reduced visibilities less than a quarter of a mile at times. Many schools and businesses were closed on February 16th. There were also reports of slide-offs, vehicles getting stuck in deep snow drifts, and accidents across the region.

Winter Storm, Hillsdale

When: February 15, 6:00 PM EST to February 16, 9:00 AM EST
Where: Hillsdale forecast zone
Reported by: CoCoRaHS
Coordinates: 41.888, -84.593 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A six to nine hour period of moderate to heavy snow created difficult travel and travel restrictions with many roads becoming impassible. Snowfall totals ranged between 6 and 8 inches across the county, with 8.0 inches reported in Litchfield. Intense snowfall rates and gusty winds created reduced visibilities less than a quarter of a mile at times. Many schools and businesses were closed on February 16th. There were also reports of slide-offs, vehicles getting stuck in deep snow drifts, and accidents across the region.

What these are

Winter Storm: A storm that brought snow, sleet or freezing rain at warning levels, usually over several hours or days.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Michigan in 2021 Every state in 2021 This day in weather history Warnings in Michigan, February 2021

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 933463, 933464, 933465, 933466, 933467.