High Wind and Strong Wind in Massachusetts, December 11, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
237 PM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front approaches New England from the south, crossing
Southern New England during the morning. This will bring a
period of light rain and some fog. A cold front then approaches
from the west late today and tonight, bringing showers and a few
thunderstorms as well as local downpours.  Blustery and dry
Sunday into Monday with above normal temperatures. A warm front
may bring limited chances for precipitation Wednesday. Even
milder temperatures and continued largely dry weather expected
for late in the week, ahead of a cold frontal passage later
Friday or early in the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

The warm front has kicked up to central MA early this afternoon,
with 60 degrees at Norwood and 36 F at Fitchburg at 2 PM. As the
parent low lifts further northeast into Quebec the front will
continues to lift north, and with that we see a lull in the rainfall
and unsettled weather for much of the afternoon and early evening.
The next chance of rain and convection comes ahead of the cold
front, which has slowed down a bit. Hi-res guidance now shows the
cold front entering western MA/CT until 3Z (10 PM). Thus we'll see a
line of rain and potential for some thunder just ahead of the
forcing, after 1Z (8 PM), exiting eastern MA by 4 AM. Given several
hundred J/kg of CAPE we could see some lightning with this line as
well which would have the potential to exacerbate gusty wind
concerns in a localized area. Speaking of winds, a Wind Advisory
remains in effect for southern New England for the potential
for winds gusting to 45 mph through the overnight and early
morning hours. Winds will really kick up with the passage of the
cold front eroding the 850 mb warm nose/inversion. Post frontal
winds out of the northwest will continue to be gusty well into
Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

Sunday kicks off a prolonged stretch of benign weather with the
return of riding mid level heights and a building surface high
pressure over the entire east coast. Temperatures will be notably
colder than our anomalous warmth from Saturday, in the mid to upper
40s (much closer to normal for mid december). While the core of the
low level jet will have moved off, good mixing to near 900 mb under
cool NW flow will allow for a breezy day, gusting 25 to 30 mph.
Sunday night is quiet with clear skies, but winds won't decouple
which will keep radiational cooling from being maximized; looking at
lows near or just below freezing.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Highlights:

* Mild and dry weather prevails at least until Wed nite/early Thurs.
  Highs commonly in the upper 40s to lower 50s with lows around
  or above freezing each day.

* Warm front Wed nite/early Thurs may bring round of light rain.

* Even milder air returns Thurs, highs some 10 to 15 degrees above
  normal!

* Unsettled Sat with better chances for precip; uncertainty on
  precip type but odds favor wetter vs wintry conditions.

Overview:

Strong confidence continues in a rather lengthy spell of mild
and generally dry weather that will govern expected conditions
through much of the upcoming workweek. In fact by late in the
week (particularly Thursday), a period of well above normal
temperatures looks to be in the offing under strong SW flow.
Weather pattern turns more unsettled late in the week into the
weekend.

Details:

A 1030 mb high pressure centered over southern Virginia to begin on
Monday allowing for dry conditions with westerly breezes. Highs
should reach well into the 40s high terrain to the low to mid 50s.
Passing cool front well to the north Monday night will bring a wind
shift to NW, with modest cool advection. However flood of mild
Pacific air maintains above-normal temps on Tuesday in the 40s to
low 50s. Will have good radiational cooling Tues night, likely to be
the coolest night in the workweek with lows within a few degrees of
freezing.

Increasing clouds Wednesday into Wednesday night/early Thursday
associated with a warm front. Decent burst of isentropic lift but
appears the bulk of this is mainly focused across interior New
England or at worst as far south as areas north of the Mass Pike. In
addition, though some pockets of shallow cooler air are possible in
the typical trouble spots such as the Merrimack Valley, northern
Worcester County into Pioneer Valley, given the milder spell of
weather it is not viewed as likely we'll see sub-freezing temps
supporting any wintry mix. Cloudy but dry weather prevails Wed nite
to Thurs AM.

The rest of Thursday features decreasing clouds, breezy SW winds and
warming temperatures. 925 mb temps Thurs off the 12z ECMWF are in
low teens Celsius range. Blended in some of the 90th percentile NBM
guidance in to boost highs over NBM values under at least partial
sun into the low to mid 60s!

Friday into the weekend turn more unsettled and confidence in
details starts to dwindle. In the wake of a cold frontal passage
Friday, southeast CONUS mid-level ridge appears to be maintained
with an overrunning low moving NE from the Ohio Valley early in the
weekend, bringing another round of decent chances for PoP. Question
is how much cooling occurs post-frontal on Friday to dictate initial
p-type. Considering this is a Day-7 forecast, still enough time to
sort through those details but given a track to our west, tilt
in the odds toward more liquid than frozen precip.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z Update

Rest of today...Moderate Confidence

IFR with embedded LIFR ceilings prevail today. Will see gusts
of 30-40 knots this afternoon and overnight. Also considerable
LLWS for the first half of the period with a strong low-level
jet moving over southern New England. Should see marginal
improvements in ceilings and visibilities as we begin to mix out
mid-late afternoon.

Tonight...

A cold front swings across from the west. Expect showers and a few
thunderstorms ahead of this front. IFR and MVFR ceilings. Cold
frontal passage around 02Z CT Valley, 03-04Z Central Hills, 05-06Z
East, 07Z Cape Cod/Islands. Winds shift out of the west and diminish
somewhat.

Sunday...

Colder, drier air moves in from the west. Wind gusts diminish to
25-35 kt. VFR skies.

Sunday night...

VFR. Light to breezy SW winds.

KBOS Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF through 00Z. High
confidence beyond 00Z.

KBDL Terminal...Moderate confidence in TAF through 00Z. High
confidence beyond 00Z.

Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/...

Sunday Night through Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels.

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

This afternoon...Moderate confidence.

Winds from the south-southwest 20-30 kt sustained and 40-45 kt
gusts. Light rain this morning, diminishing this afternoon.
Showers approach from the west toward evening. Gale Warnings
remain in effect this afternoon and evening.

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

A cold front moves across the waters between 03Z and 08Z.
Expect showers and scattered thunderstorms ahead of the front
with strong wind gusts and with local downpours and fog reducing
visibility. South-southwest winds gust 40 to 45 kt ahead of the
front, turning from the west later at night. Seas 10-15 kt,
especially on the outer waters. Gale Warnings continue in effect
tonight.

Sunday...High confidence.

Drier air with clearing skies expected. Wind gusts diminish,
but still reach 30-kt. Seas diminish, reaching 5-7 feet in the
afternoon. Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed.

Sunday Night...High confidence.

Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Outlook /Monday through Wednesday/...

Monday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Monday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for CTZ002>004.
MA...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for MAZ002>024-026.
RI...Wind Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for RIZ001>008.
MARINE...Gale Warning until noon EST Sunday for ANZ231>235-237-250-251-
     254>256.
     Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Sunday for ANZ230-236.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Loconto/BW
NEAR TERM...BW
SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM...Loconto
AVIATION...WTB/Loconto/BW
MARINE...Loconto/BW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
432 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

MAZ004-026-120945-
Northern Worcester MA-Northern Middlesex MA-
432 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Massachusetts and
eastern Massachusetts.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

CTZ002>004-MAZ002-003-005>024-RIZ001>008-120945-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Central Middlesex MA-Western Essex MA-
Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-Western Hampden MA-
Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-Southern Worcester MA-
Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-Suffolk MA-
Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-
Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-
Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
432 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST
SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, central
Massachusetts, eastern Massachusetts, northeastern Massachusetts,
southeastern Massachusetts, western Massachusetts, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ231>235-237-250-251-254>256-120945-
Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-Buzzards Bay-
Rhode Island Sound-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
432 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230-236-120945-
Boston Harbor-Narragansett Bay-
432 AM EST Sat Dec 11 2021

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts coastal waters
and Rhode Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information on upcoming hazardous weather, please see the
Area Forecast Discussion on our webpage for the latest forecast
thinking. There is also our Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook at
www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

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