A weak cool front drifted south across the Red River Valley of Northeast Texas into Southern Arkansas during the daytime hours of July 2nd, as it was reinforced by a weak upper level trough shifting southeast through Eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and the Mississippi Valley. Low level moisture pooled out ahead of the front, with diurnal heating and weak forcing along the front contributing in an…
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The episode as NWS SHV wrote it up.
A weak cool front drifted south across the Red River Valley of Northeast Texas into Southern Arkansas during the daytime hours of July 2nd, as it was reinforced by a weak upper level trough shifting southeast through Eastern Oklahoma, Arkansas, and the Mississippi Valley. Low level moisture pooled out ahead of the front, with diurnal heating and weak forcing along the front contributing in an area of showers and thunderstorms across East Texas, Southern Arkansas, and North Louisiana during the morning and portions of the afternoon. Given the weakly sheared environment, these storms moved very slowly within the tropical air mass in place, with a cluster of storms producing very heavy rainfall affecting much of Ouachita Parish in North-Central Louisiana where widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches fell. Due to the quick nature at which this heavy rainfall was observed, flash flooding was reported at various locations in West Monroe before diminishing during the afternoon.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Shreveport, LA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 5:37 AM CST, 1 hour 38 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 637 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 AVIATION... For the 02/12Z TAF update, a slow-moving cold front will gradually sag southward into our airspace, instigating convection for most of the period. MVFR/IFR vis/cigs will be possible for most terminals through 02/17Z with low-level moisture buildup ahead of the frontal boundary. The first round of VCTS convection is already propagating southeast toward KELD and KMLU through 02/15Z. The next round of TSRA/VCTS convection, with daytime heating, will develop by 02/17Z threatening terminals with MVFR/IFR vis/cigs through 03/02Z. /16/ && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021/ SHORT TERM.../Today through Saturday/ Convection has already developed this morning ahead of a slow- moving frontal boundary that will continue to drift southward into the Ark-La-Tex. Most high-resolution model guidance suggests that this trend will continue in two phases, starting with further development of this morning's convection before the onset of daytime heating instigates the next phase of widespread thunderstorms. No severe weather is expected with the environment and multicellular storm modes indicated, however, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are the primary impacts possible where storms do develop. Afternoon highs in the upper 80s are likely, and low 90s cannot be ruled out, especially in areas receiving less precipitation. By tonight, the frontal boundary will have crossed further into our area, with winds out of the northeast beginning to advect much-welcomed dew points in the lower 60s. This pleasant reprieve from oppressive dew points in the mid-70s will allow temperatures to fall into the lower 70s south of the I-20 corridor, and the mid-60s across southwest Arkansas, well below average for this time of the year. While similar temperatures are expected by Saturday, dew points still in the 60s will allow for a drier, more comfortable afternoon with highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. The frontal boundary will linger south of our southernmost zones, where the highest chance of precipitation will remain near Deep East Texas and Central Louisiana. /16/ LONG TERM.../Saturday Night through Thursday Night/ Weak Frontal boundary across the northern gulf coast at the start of the period to support widely scattered convection across portions of deep east Texas and north Louisiana on Saturday night. Diurnally driven convection to increase in coverage on Sunday across these same areas. Frontal boundary to lift north on Monday as a weak-upper low drifts southeast into the Red River Valley of north Texas allowing for enhanced rain chances areawide. Unsettled conditions to continue into Tuesday through Thursday as remnant upper-low remains stalled across east Texas into the northern Gulf of Mexico. With increased instability areawide, afternoon high temperatures will be limited to the upper 80s to lower 90s each day. /05/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 88 70 90 70 / 60 40 10 10 MLU 88 67 88 66 / 80 40 10 10 DEQ 88 65 89 65 / 50 10 0 0 TXK 87 66 88 67 / 60 20 10 0 ELD 87 63 88 63 / 60 20 0 0 TYR 88 72 88 71 / 60 40 30 20 GGG 88 70 88 69 / 60 40 20 20 LFK 91 73 89 72 / 70 60 60 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && 16/05/16
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Shreveport LA 544 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077- TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-031045- Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette- Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto- Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn- Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp- Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk- Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine- 544 AM CDT Fri Jul 2 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central Arkansas, southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana, southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight... Showers and thunderstorms are expected across much of the area today due to an approaching cold front. Any thunderstorms that do develop this afternoon are expected to remain below severe limits. However, stronger storms may produce gusty winds, brief heavy rainfall, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning. Thunderstorms should diminish around sunset. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday... From Saturday through Tuesday, the best chances for thunderstorms should be south of I-20 as the cold front is expected to stall near the gulf coast. However, rain chances will begin to increase areawide early next week as the stalled frontal boundary returns north across the region. No severe weather is anticipated through Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Activation of emergency management personnel, amateur radio operators and storm spotters is not anticipated through tonight.
The Shreveport radar (KSHV), 160 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:15 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Several reports and pictures were posted to social media of flash flooding at the McMillian Road and North 7th Street intersection in West Monroe, as well as near Mill and Stella Streets.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Louisiana in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Louisiana, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 958545.