Flash Flood in New Mexico, July 2, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
317 PM MDT Fri Jul 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast through the
holiday weekend and over the next week, as the North American Monsoon
is underway. Some of these storms may produce locally heavy rainfall
and flash flooding, particularly near recent burn scars. High
temperatures will begin a slow warm-up through the weekend and
remain within a few degrees of normal through the next week. Drier
air begins to work its way in towards the end of the next work week,
with the coverage of showers and thunderstorms on the downtrend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
We have extended the Flash Flood Watch through midnight Saturday
night.

Today's round of showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, is
occurring over western and central NM. The east has been slower to
get going this afternoon. It's a bit more stable in the east, and
the steering flow is now north to south. So, it will be a little
harder to get convection going in the east, but showers are now
developing in Chaves and Curry Counties. Showers and storms, some
with heavy rain, will continue into tonight. High PW's and slow
moving storms will make for efficient rainfall. Most of the activity
will be slow to end, and there could be convection most of the night
in our southern zones bordering TX and Mexico. As the high gradually
builds near the Four Corners, storms may have slightly less coverage
Saturday and Saturday night, but most areas will see some rain aside
from the far northwest. The central and southwest mountains will
likely get the most rain, but just about anywhere could see heavy
rain from the stronger storms, with high PW's continuing and storms
move slowly from north to south, or northeast to southwest.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
The upper-level high will remain over the Four Corners region on
Sunday. With weak steering flow, PWAT's approaching one to one and
and a half inches or greater, mid-level relative humidity greater
than 70%, and forecast soundings showing the "long, skinny" CAPE
profiles across southeast/ southwestern areas of the state Sunday
through Tuesday, the risk for locally heavy rainfall and flash
flooding continues. Storm motion will generally be to the south
around 10-15 mph. By late Monday night into Tuesday, the high begins
to shift westward across the Utah/Arizona border.

Models are in decent agreement that the high will migrate back to
the Four Corners late in the week and strengthen to 597 dam. With
drier air working its way into the state, showers and thunderstorms
are still in the forecast, but will be on the downtrend. High
temperatures stay near or above normal across western and central
areas through the week and below normal across the east, warming
by a few degrees towards the end of the work week.

CHJ/31

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns are expected over the next several days as
a traditional monsoon pattern with abundant moisture will result in
a threat for significant wetting precipitation and higher
humidities. The one exception may be across the northwest zones,
closest to the upper high. This upper high previously in central TX
is shifting the Four Corners today, and remain there through the
holiday weekend. The high then shifts west and slowly strengthens
next week. Drier air rotating clock-wise around the high will
gradually filter into NM during the week, starting in the north.
Showers and thunderstorms will still be around through next week,
but with less coverage and maybe less intensity and rain, for the
second half of the week.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
Mostly VFR conditions currently aside from MVFR at KLVS (OVC029) and
KTCC (OVC015). Numerous showers/scattered storms will develop over
the high terrain this midday and the   early afternoon, then
eventually impact the lower elevations as the day progresses. All
areas will be subject to storms save the immediate Four Corners area.
Slow/erratic storm motions are expected along with poor vis/cigs
within heavy pcpn cores. With more instability, a few of the more
robust updrafts may create brief hail. Mtn obscurations are also
likely within thunderstorm activity. Expect storm coverage to dwindle
across the northern half of NM by 06Z with activity persisting
overnight south of I-40 through 12Z. A return of MVFR, or possibly
lower, stratus is forecast in eastern NM tonight, but there is rather
low confidence on whether it could result in restrictions. Another
widespread round of showers and thunderstorms Saturday.

CHJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65  94  65  96 /  20   5  10   5
Dulce...........................  50  88  51  89 /  30  30  10  20
Cuba............................  57  86  57  87 /  40  30  20  30
Gallup..........................  56  90  56  90 /  30  30  10  20
El Morro........................  54  83  55  85 /  50  50  20  30
Grants..........................  55  87  56  89 /  50  50  20  30
Quemado.........................  57  83  58  84 /  50  70  30  40
Magdalena.......................  60  82  61  85 /  60  60  30  50
Datil...........................  57  80  58  83 /  60  80  30  50
Reserve.........................  55  86  54  85 /  60  80  40  40
Glenwood........................  65  89  65  88 /  70  80  50  50
Chama...........................  47  82  49  81 /  40  50  20  50
Los Alamos......................  58  81  60  85 /  50  50  30  40
Pecos...........................  57  82  59  83 /  60  60  30  50
Cerro/Questa....................  45  83  47  82 /  60  60  20  40
Red River.......................  45  77  46  73 /  60  70  30  50
Angel Fire......................  43  74  43  76 /  70  70  30  50
Taos............................  52  85  53  86 /  50  50  20  40
Mora............................  49  79  51  80 /  60  70  30  50
Espanola........................  62  89  63  91 /  50  40  30  30
Santa Fe........................  59  83  61  85 /  50  50  30  40
Santa Fe Airport................  59  87  59  88 /  50  50  30  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  88  67  90 /  50  40  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  89  67  92 /  50  30  20  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  91  67  94 /  50  30  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  90  68  93 /  50  30  20  20
Belen...........................  65  91  66  95 /  50  30  20  20
Bernalillo......................  65  92  66  94 /  50  30  20  20
Bosque Farms....................  64  90  65  94 /  50  30  20  20
Corrales........................  65  92  67  94 /  50  30  20  20
Los Lunas.......................  65  90  66  95 /  50  30  20  20
Placitas........................  63  87  64  90 /  50  40  30  30
Rio Rancho......................  65  91  67  93 /  50  30  20  20
Socorro.........................  65  89  67  94 /  50  40  30  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  60  81  62  85 /  50  50  30  40
Tijeras.........................  60  84  62  88 /  50  40  30  40
Edgewood........................  57  85  57  88 /  50  50  30  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  56  85  56  88 /  50  50  30  40
Clines Corners..................  55  79  57  85 /  60  60  30  40
Mountainair.....................  57  81  58  86 /  60  50  30  50
Gran Quivira....................  57  79  59  85 /  60  60  30  40
Carrizozo.......................  62  84  63  86 /  50  70  30  40
Ruidoso.........................  55  75  58  78 /  50  70  30  50
Capulin.........................  53  81  53  84 /  60  50  20  30
Raton...........................  55  85  55  87 /  70  60  20  40
Springer........................  57  85  56  89 /  70  60  20  40
Las Vegas.......................  54  80  55  85 /  70  60  30  40
Clayton.........................  61  84  63  90 /  50  30  30  30
Roy.............................  60  81  59  86 /  60  50  30  40
Conchas.........................  64  87  64  92 /  50  40  30  30
Santa Rosa......................  62  85  63  91 /  50  40  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  65  88  67  92 /  60  30  30  30
Clovis..........................  64  84  65  89 /  60  40  30  30
Portales........................  65  85  66  90 /  60  40  30  30
Fort Sumner.....................  65  86  66  92 /  50  30  30  20
Roswell.........................  69  88  70  93 /  60  40  30  20
Picacho.........................  63  82  64  87 /  50  70  30  40
Elk.............................  58  80  60  82 /  60  70  30  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for the following
zones... NMZ208-226-238>240.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
427 AM MDT Fri Jul 2 2021

NMZ201>241-031100-
Northwest Plateau-Chuska Mountains-Far Northwest Highlands-
Northwest Highlands-West Central Plateau-West Central Mountains-
West Central Highlands-Southwest Mountains-
San Francisco River Valley-Tusas Mountains Including Chama-
Jemez Mountains-Glorieta Mesa Including Glorieta Pass-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains-
East Slopes Sangre de Cristo Mountains-Upper Rio Grande Valley-
Espanola Valley-Santa Fe Metro Area-
Middle Rio Grande Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
Lower Rio Grande Valley-Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-
Estancia Valley-Central Highlands-South Central Highlands-
Upper Tularosa Valley-South Central Mountains-
Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
Far Northeast Highlands-Northeast Highlands-Union County-
Harding County-Eastern San Miguel County-Guadalupe County-
Quay County-Curry County-Roosevelt County-De Baca County-
Chaves County Plains-Eastern Lincoln County-Southwest Chaves County-
San Agustin Plains and Adjacent Lowlands-
427 AM MDT Fri Jul 2 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north and central
New Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Showers and storms will be on the uptrend today and tonight, with
locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible. A Flash Flood
Watch is in effect through tonight for Lincoln and Chaves Counties as
well as the Southwest Mountains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

A continued threat of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will
persist through the holiday weekend into early next week with an
active Monsoon pattern in place. The threat for flash flooding will
be highest in and near recent burn scars. Some storms from Sunday
through at least Tuesday may produce strong wind gusts and small
hail.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report rainfall amounts and any flooding
through the National Weather Service Albuquerque web site at
weather.gov/abq or by calling 1.888.386.7637.

11

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1140 AM MDT FRI JUL 2 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     FLASH FLOOD      4 W HAGERMAN            33.11N 104.40W
07/01/2021                   CHAVES             NM   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED DAMAGE TO
            BRIDGE ON MORGAN ROAD AND RIO FELIX WHERE
            VIDEO SHOWED RAPID MOVING WATER OVER THE
            BRIDGE WITH STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. ROADS DOWN
            STREAM ON THE RIO FELIX AT CHEROKEE RD,
            LINCOLN AVE AND SHOSHONI ROAD ARE CLOSED.
            RIO FELIX CRESTED AT 11.4 FT AT THE GAGE ON
            WIGGINS LN.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
310 PM MDT Fri Jul 2 2021

NMZ219-221-022145-
Sandia/Manzano Mountains Including Edgewood-Middle Rio Grande
Valley/Albuquerque Metro Area-
310 PM MDT Fri Jul 2 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BERNALILLO COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM
MDT...

At 309 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
eastern Albuquerque, moving southwest at 5 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Heavy rain will also be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Albuquerque, Tijeras, Cedar Crest, Cedro, Carnuel and South Valley.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 40 between Mile Markers 160 and 176.
 Interstate 25 between Mile Markers 222 and 225.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Motorists can expect brief but sudden changes in visibility and
ponding of water on highways as storms move through the area.

Fast running water will quickly fill arroyos and ditches.

&&

LAT...LON 3519 10645 3506 10631 3488 10647 3508 10669
TIME...MOT...LOC 2109Z 048DEG 6KT 3509 10648

Shoemake