Strong thunderstorms produced gusty winds as they tracked over the Lake Michigan nearshore waters during the afternoon and evening hours.
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The episode as NWS GRB wrote it up.
Strong thunderstorms produced gusty winds as they tracked over the Lake Michigan nearshore waters during the afternoon and evening hours.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Green Bay, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 6, 11:45 AM CST, 40 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1245 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance .SHORT TERM...Today...Tonight...and Wednesday Issued at 423 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 A nearly stationary front stretched from roughly MSP to GRB at 09Z. A surface low is expected to move along the front today while a surface high north of Lake Superior tries to push the front southward along the lakeshore. Thunderstorms will move along the front as it edges slowly south. Elevated instability across northern Wisconsin could create a hail threat while the far south could have enough sunshine to create surface based CAPE and storms with strong winds and hail. Highs today will likely occur before noon in most places. An approaching upper trough is forecast to produce cyclogenesis over southern Minnesota, with the system moving across Wisconsin tonight. The ECMWF has a much deeper surface low and much stronger low level warm advection. This results in higher QPF totals of 2 to 3 inches over 24 hours. HPC QPF forecaster thought that the ECMWF might be overdone due to convective feedback. The other models still have a decent surface low and a good overrunning rainfall event of 1 to 2 inches. The medium and large rivers should be able to take that much rainfall, but there could be some flooding or small streams or urban areas with an heavy convective rainfall. The showers and thunderstorms will end from northwest to southeast Wednesday as the surface low goes by and a surface high builds in from the north. It will be much cooler and breezy as well, with temperatures about 20 degrees below normal. .LONG TERM...Wednesday Night Through Monday Issued at 423 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Main focus is on changes to the forecast this weekend. Otherwise, temps will be below normal through most of the weekend and return to near normal early next week. Wednesday night and Thursday...Continue to carry chance PoPs in east- central WI through Wednesday night as departing low and shortwave could linger a few showers or thunderstorms mainly along and east of the Fox Valley. Dry and cool high pressure builds in for Thursday with highs about 10 degrees below normal in the upper 60s/low 70s. Friday through Sunday...Medium range models have come into better agreement this cycle and bring a surface low and mid-level shortwave through the Northern Plains and then stalling out in the corn belt region. This puts the strongest forcing southwest of the forecast area. As a result, lowered PoPs from Friday through Sunday, especially across northern WI. Also removed the mention of thunder with no instability present. If this trend continues will need to lower PoPs quite a bit more as the GFS, ECMWF, and CMC all depict a mostly dry weekend with high pressure keeping the surface low blocked to the south. Temperatures will still be a few degrees below normal due the mid/upper trough in place. Highs are forecast to reach the 70s with lows in the 50s. Early next week...Models have varying solutions at this point, with the general consensus showing the high moving east which allows the low to move north/northeast towards the western or central Great Lakes. Could see a few showers if/when this low passes through the area. Stuck with blended model solution during this time which features chance PoPs. && .AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 Low pressure moving along a nearly stationary front across central Wisconsin will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area from west to east this afternoon and tonight. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across central and east central WI between 3 pm and 9 pm. Have added TEMPO groups for the most likely periods of thunderstorms at all TAF sites, except RHI, where little instability is expected. Ceilings and visibility will fall to MVFR by late afternoon or early evening and to IFR later this evening. Poor flight conditions will continue Wednesday morning, though rain may taper off at RHI later in the morning, allowing for improvement to MVFR. && .GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Beach Hazards Statement from 4 PM CDT this afternoon through Wednesday morning for WIZ040-050. && SHORT TERM.....RDM LONG TERM......KLJ AVIATION.......Kieckbusch
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1135 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-071645- Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln- Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano- Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago- Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County- Southern Oconto County- 1135 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight There is a slight chance of severe thunderstorms, mainly for areas south of highway 29 between 3 pm and 8 pm. Damaging winds, torrential rainfall and hail are the main threats. An isolated tornado is also possible in central Wisconsin. A threat of heavy rainfall and urban and small stream flooding will continue through tonight. Building waves on Lake Michigan late this afternoon and tonight could create dangerous swimming conditions at beaches along Lake Michigan. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Urban and small stream flooding remains possible through Wednesday morning as rainfall continues. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening. LMZ521-522-541>543-071645- The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan- 1135 AM CDT Tue Jul 6 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake Michigan and the waters of Green Bay. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected late this afternoon and tonight due to gusty northeast winds and building waves. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect. Thunderstorms are possible at times this afternoon and overnight. Gusty winds, hail, and cloud to water lightning will pose a threat to boaters. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Conditions hazardous to small craft are possible Wednesday into Thursday due to persistent and gusty northeast winds. Kieckbusch
The Green Bay radar (KGRB), 58 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:25 UTC.
2 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorms produced a gust to 49 knots at the Manitowoc airport.
Thunderstorms produced a gust to 39 knots at the Sheboygan buoy.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Lake Michigan in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 959907, 959910.