A thunderstorm moved over northern Lake Huron during the early morning hours and produced wind gusts in excess of 40 mph over the open waters.
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The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
A thunderstorm moved over northern Lake Huron during the early morning hours and produced wind gusts in excess of 40 mph over the open waters.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 1, 2:53 AM EST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 353 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 .NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight) Issued at 354 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 ...Rain chances ending ending... High impact weather potential: Minimal. 1010mb low pressure is moving slowly se-ward from the Bruce Peninsula on Lk Huron. A convectively-enhanced initial cold front is dropping into southern lower MI, while a secondary boundary is getting dragged across eastern upper MI. The most widespread precip has exited into se lower MI and over Lk Huron, though a few showers and dropping back into eastern upper MI. On the whole, it's drier out there than it's supposed to be, and guidance has trended in that direction for the upcoming day. A prominent shortwave will be digging across the Lk Huron basin this morning. We will see reasonably sharp height falls and a colder pocket of air aloft (-19C 500mb temps scraping past eastern upper/ne lower MI). But the path of this shortwave is a touch further east than was the consensus 24 hrs ago. And it's trying to do its work in an environment with broader cool/dry advection in place. Diurnal heating will try to contribute some instability this afternoon in a relatively cool incoming airmass, but 500mb heights and temps will be rebounding this afternoon as the shortwave trof exits to the se. Won't see more than 100-200j/kg of MlCape this afternoon, and forcing is too weak to take advantage of that (too much synoptic winds for lake breezes). Pops in general will be reduced. Difficult to completely give up on precip, given the sharp upper trof swinging in and at least some moisture present. But just a slight chance will suffice for a significant portion of the forecast area (eastern upper, nw and n central lower MI). Higher pops (chancy) still fine for ne lower MI, and especially the coastal counties, which are closer to the better dynamics and have the coldest temps aloft. By afternoon, only have showers mentioned in two spots: near Saginaw Bay, with the last vestiges of synoptic moisture; and in parts of the St Marys Valley, as diurnal convection over Ontario could move southward into eastern Chippewa Co. Even where precip threat ends early, enough BL moisture and cooler air off the surface to support partly cloudy conditions due to cumulus. Those will quickly disappear this evening, with mostly clear skies into early overnight before some clouds spill into eastern upper MI late. Max temps today mainly lower 70s. Min temps upper 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM...(Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 354 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal. Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: First day of August finds North American pattern amplifying as heights rise across western Canada (+2 to +3 sigma standardized height anomalies across nearly the western half of Canada...while mean troughing sharpens over eastern North America with short wave energy digging down the backside of the trough across the Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley. Upper low off the British Columbia coast (strongly -EPO/+PNA). Deep layer north/ northwest flow into the upper Lakes continues to pull cooler air into Michigan...+11C 850mb off 00z APX sounding but down to +6C at YPL. Weak surface low was moving through the Great Lakes early this morning dragging a cold front along with it. Meanwhile a 1025mb surface high was center over Saskatchewan. Eastern North American trough will remain in place to start the week but will undergo a split with the northern branch reinforced by a small upper low crossing Hudson Bay...and pattern becomes increasing blocky over the Pacific. Short wave trough will slide through the upper Lakes Tuesday from the northwest though surface high pressure will be in place. Bit of a "side door" cold front will push into Lake Superior Monday night...although at this point looks like the boundary may wash out before it makes much southward progress into Michigan. Primary Forecast Concerns: Monday's short wave passage at this point not looking to be too much of an issue. Always a concern with mid level cold pool and attending forcing passing through during peak heating that some showers could pop...and can foresee that occurring on the Wisconsin side of the lake and perhaps some of that trying to get into areas south of the Leelanau Peninsula late in the day/early evening. But not getting much indication of instability over northern Lower so unless that changes plan to let a dry forecast ride. Afternoon highs in the 70s for Monday...maybe a few degrees shy of normals for early August. Tuesday starts with a frontal boundary in the vicinity of Lake Superior...though there is minimal thermal contrast along this boundary and it looks like it may dissipate before dropping into Michigan. But there looks to be a pretty well-defined low level thermal ridge that will lie roughly west-east across the Upper Peninsula. Forcing along this thermal ridge will bring some clouds to eastern Upper...and could be enough instability to allow for some showers to pop along expected lake breeze development/collisions. May see the same thing over northeast Lower as well. Would expect lingering showers to end Tuesday evening. Temperatures will continue to moderate with highs getting back close to 80 with a few spots likely in the 80-85 range. && .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 354 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 High Impact Weather Potential: General weak troughiness remains in the vicinity during the midweek period. with continued indications of a weak upper low closing off over the Ohio Valley and a substantial pool of cold air north of Hudson Bay. May be flirting with a couple of short wave troughs by week's end so the forecast will trend more unsettled particularly Friday and Saturday. Looking at a warm end to the week with highs in the 80s expected through the extended period and probably more humid toward the weekend as well. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1145 PM EDT Sat Jul 31 2021 A cold front will continue to drop south thru Southern Wisconsin and Lower Michigan overnight...ushering cooler air into our region. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will impact Northern Lower Michigan overnight as this feature slides thru the area. Additional showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected to develop on Sunday in response to the arrival of colder air aloft. Overall conditions will remain VFR thru the 24 hour TAF forecast period...with some MVFR cigs overnight into Sunday morning. Surface winds will become north AOB 10 kts overnight and then strengthen to 10 to 20 kts with a few higher gusts on Sunday. && .MARINE... Issued at 354 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 Somewhat gusty northerly winds develop today, behind low pressure departing se-ward from Lk Huron. Winds will be gustiest on Lake MI and Whitefish Bay. Small craft advisories up for some waters on Lake MI already; will consider whether any expansion is needed shortly. Lighter westerly winds on Monday. && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 PM EDT this evening for LMZ344>346. LS...NONE. && NEAR TERM...JZ SHORT TERM...JPB LONG TERM...JPB AVIATION...MR MARINE...JZ
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Gaylord MI 354 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 MIZ016>018-020>036-041-042-086>088-095>099-021200- Emmet-Cheboygan-Presque Isle-Leelanau-Antrim-Otsego-Montmorency- Alpena-Benzie-Grand Traverse-Kalkaska-Crawford-Oscoda-Alcona- Manistee-Wexford-Missaukee-Roscommon-Ogemaw-Iosco-Gladwin-Arenac- Western Chippewa-Central Chippewa-Southeast Chippewa- Western Mackinac-Eastern Mackinac- Mackinac Island/Bois Blanc Island- Beaver Island and surrounding islands-Charlevoix- 354 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for Eastern Upper Michigan and Northern Lower Michigan. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A few thunderstorms are possible in northeast lower Michigan this morning. Severe storms are not expected. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is a chance for non-severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Another chance for thunderstorms is expected Friday and Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather and rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service. Reports may be made one of three ways: Online: weather.gov/gaylord Facebook: facebook.com/nwsgaylord Twitter: twitter.com/nwsgaylord For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord. LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-021200- Straits of Mackinac within 5 nm of Mackinac Bridge including Mackinac Island-St Ignace to False Detour Channel- 5NM East of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Light MI including Bois Blanc Island- Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Pt MI Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary-Sturgeon Pt to Alabaster MI- Grand Traverse Bay south of a line Grand Traverse Light to Norwood MI-Seul Choix Point to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge- Norwood MI to 5NM West of Mackinac Bridge including Little Traverse Bay-Sleeping Bear Point to Grand Traverse Light MI- Point Betsie to Sleeping Bear Point MI- Manistee to Point Betsie MI- Whitefish Bay (U.S. Portion)/Whitefish Point to Point Iroquois MI- St. Marys River Point Iroquois to E. Potagannissing Bay- 354 AM EDT Sun Aug 1 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for the northern Michigan nearshore waters of Lake Huron, Lake Michigan and Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A few thunderstorms are possible on northern Lake Huron today, mainly this morning. Severe storms are not expected. There is the potential for waterspouts today on northern Lake Huron. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. There is chance for thunderstorms Tuesday...Friday...and Saturday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated. For more information visit http://weather.gov/gaylord. JZ
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 155 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:08 UTC.
1 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Northern Lake Huron buoy 45003.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 981574.