A surface high pressure ridge centered over the Upper Mississippi River Valley built eastward over Lake Erie and vicinity between daybreak and early afternoon of the 14th. Shortly after daybreak, a land breeze convergence zone was present offshore far-northeast OH and northwest PA according to surface observations and visible satellite imagery.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CLE wrote it up.
A surface high pressure ridge centered over the Upper Mississippi River Valley built eastward over Lake Erie and vicinity between daybreak and early afternoon of the 14th. Shortly after daybreak, a land breeze convergence zone was present offshore far-northeast OH and northwest PA according to surface observations and visible satellite imagery. This land breeze convergence zone persisted through mid-morning and was accompanied by a line of cumuliform clouds. Horizontal wind shear along the convergence zone generated surface-based vertical vorticity. An updraft associated with one of the cumuliform clouds ingested surface-based vertical vorticity and stretched it to greater strength, which led to the formation of a waterspout.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Cleveland, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 14, 5:51 AM EST, 1 hour 9 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 651 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will exit the area to the southeast this morning and high pressure will build in from the west by this evening. The ridge will persist over the region through early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... The forecast remains on track so no changes needed with this update. Previous Discussion... A cold front currently draped over north-central Ohio will continue to move southeast across the area this morning and should exit the southeastern portion of the forecast area by mid-morning, although a second reinforcing cold front will follow close behind late this morning/early this afternoon. Showers are currently exiting the Northwest PA counties and dry, tranquil weather will develop for the remainder of the weekend as high pressure builds in from the west and northwest this afternoon and evening. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s both today and Sunday, but humidity will be notably lower as dew points fall into the 50s behind the cold front. Overnight lows will fall into the cool 50s across the majority of the area tonight, but areas along the lakeshore will most likely linger in the low to mid 60s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Surface ridging centered over the eastern Great Lakes Sunday night will build east into New England through Monday night, while a Bermuda high builds into midweek. Dry conditions early Sunday night will give way to periodic shower/storm chances by early Monday into midweek as Atlantic/GOMEX moisture return ramps up into the area. The highest pops will generally be focused across the southeast portion of the area late Monday and Monday night, as a subtle mid/upper level shortwave lifts northeast through the predominant southwest flow. This wave lifts northeast into the eastern Great Lakes by Tuesday morning, with more diurnally driven precip chances with weak/incoherent forcing for ascent and moderately unstable conditions across the region. Highs in the upper 70s/low 80s Monday will inch up several degrees by Tuesday, with highs in the low to mid 80s. Dewpoints will approach 70 by Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Some decent model disagreement with the overall synoptic evolution late in the week, with lowering confidence in forecast specifics heading into day 6-7. However, the consensus is that continued Atlantic/GOMEX return persists into the area during the period, with continued shower/storm chances in a more diurnally driven regime. Some indications of mid/upper height falls and perhaps an approaching surface front by the end of the week, but enough model disagreement to keep pops in the chance range for Friday, with afternoon likely pops Wedneday and Thursday. Highs will generally be in the mid to possibly upper 80s, with daytime dewpoints near 70 each day. && .AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/... A cold front will continue to track southeast through the forecast area this morning and broken VFR ceilings will scatter out by mid to late morning as dry air and high pressure arrive from the west and northwest. Dry weather is expected through the TAF period. Winds will be light and northwesterly to northerly this morning, before increasing to around 10 knots this afternoon and becoming northeasterly by this evening. Outlook...Non-VFR possible with occasional showers and thunderstorms Monday night through Wednesday. && .MARINE... Initial cold front has moved south of the lake early this morning, and expecting northerly winds to ramp up a bit over the lake through the rest of the morning before a secondary trough/front moves through late morning/midday. Winds will then shift a bit more northeasterly later this afternoon and evening. Winds may increase into the 15-20 kt range during this period, with 2-4 ft waves possible. Any strengthening of winds/waves vs. what is currently forecast could prompt a short duration small craft advisory, but will hold off for now. Winds become more northeasterly tonight into Sunday as high pressure builds into the region, becoming a bit more easterly Sunday night/Monday as the ridge builds east of the lake. A weak warm front/trough may lift north to/through the late Monday night/Tuesday as the ridge settles over New England, with winds becoming southerly through midweek. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...Maines NEAR TERM...Maines SHORT TERM...Greenawalt LONG TERM...Greenawalt AVIATION...Maines MARINE...Greenawalt
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Cleveland OH 531 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 OHZ007-012-089-PAZ001-150945- Ottawa-Lake-Ashtabula Lakeshore-Northern Erie- 531 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a moderate risk for rip currents this afternoon and tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. OHZ009>011-150945- Erie-Lorain-Cuyahoga- 531 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central Ohio and northeast Ohio. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a moderate risk for rip currents this afternoon and tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. There is a moderate risk for rip currents Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006-008-013-014-017>023-027>033- 036>038-047-PAZ002-003-150945- Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US- Canadian border-Maumee Bay to Reno Beach OH- Reno Beach to The Islands OH-The Islands to Vermilion OH- Vermilion to Avon Point OH-Avon Point to Willowick OH- Willowick to Geneva-on-the Lake OH-Geneva-on-the-Lake to Conneaut OH- Conneaut OH to Ripley NY- Detroit River Lt. to Maumee Bay OH to Reno Beach OH beyond 5NM offshoreline to US-Canadian border- Reno Beach to The Islands OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US- Canadian border- The Islands to Vermilion OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border- Vermilion to Avon Point OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border- Avon Point to Willowick OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border-Willowick to Geneva-on-the- Lake OH beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-Geneva-on-the- Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border- Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US- Canadian border-Lucas-Wood-Sandusky-Geauga-Ashtabula Inland-Hancock- Seneca-Huron-Medina-Summit-Portage-Trumbull-Wyandot-Crawford- Richland-Ashland-Wayne-Stark-Mahoning-Marion-Morrow-Holmes-Knox- Southern Erie- 531 AM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Lake Erie, north central Ohio, northeast Ohio, northwest Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The Cleveland radar (KCLE), 95 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:02 UTC.
1 waterspout. Local standard time, as filed.
Received photo of a definite waterspout with spray whirl along the lake surface offshore Geneva-on-the-Lake. Location estimated.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Lake Erie in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 977891.