An upper level ridge was in place across eastern Kentucky and points eastward, but was weakening on June 30th heading into the evening hours. This was allowing for decent return southerly flow and increased shower and thunderstorm potential.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
An upper level ridge was in place across eastern Kentucky and points eastward, but was weakening on June 30th heading into the evening hours. This was allowing for decent return southerly flow and increased shower and thunderstorm potential. However, with little in the way of shear, most of the storms were poorly organized and pulsy in nature. The exception was a storm that moved through Pulaski County, and did result in some thunderstorm wind damage.
An upper level trough dropping southeast from the Great Lakes brought a modest increase in winds aloft overnight, along with lowering heights and upper level support for precipitation in the right entrance region of the upper level jet. The associated surface cold front also dropped south-southeast into the Ohio Valley, with a secondary stationary boundary setting up across the state just to our north and west during the day on the 1st. With low level flow increasing throughout the day ahead of these frontal systems, the stage was set for more scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms to begin developing by dawn, continuing through the day, and resulting in locally heavy rainfall. The highest amounts were observed over east-central Kentucky, between Fayette and Powell County, where the Kentucky Mesonet reported 5.36 inches in Clark County, and the cooperative observer in Estill County reported 5.14 inches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 30, 10:39 PM EST, 1 hour 21 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 1139 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1139 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2021 Convection across Ohio looks to mainly stay just to our north over the next 1 to 2 hours; however, surface convergence has migrated into the I-64 corridor, with activity picking up in intensity upstream, as well as east of Morehead. Have increased PoPs accordingly across the Bluegrass through 06z. There may be a brief lull during the pre-dawn hours, before PoPs ramp up towards dawn once again with the approach of the better upper level support. Freshened up the hourly temperatures through the overnight, but will let the forecast lows ride for now. UPDATE Issued at 825 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2021 Most of the convection has dwindled across eastern Kentucky early this evening, given the weak forcing and gradually diminishing instability. An area of convergence exists across portions of central Kentucky, with a better one near and north of the Ohio River, where deeper convection is ongoing. Will hang onto mainly slight chance PoPs through late tonight, before increasing chances occur from the northwest closer to dawn, as better forcing arrives. Also raised a few of the lows in the ridges tonight, as lower 70s will likely be more commonplace, similar to previous nights. Updates have been sent. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 515 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2021 The upper ridge over the region continued to weaken today, allowing more showers and thunderstorms to develop than in recent days. However, with little in the way of shear, they were poorly organized and pulse in nature. With loss of afternoon heat, will look for an overall decline in activity this evening. However, an upper trough dropping southeast from the Great Lakes will bring a modest increase in winds aloft overnight, along with lowering geopotential heights and upper level support for precip in the form of the right entrance region of an upper jet. Its cold front will also drop south southeast toward the Ohio Valley, and low level flow will increase ahead of it. The combination of factors should support an area of showers and thunderstorms to begin moving in from the north toward dawn. As the regime slowly shifts south southeast on Thursday, precip will overspread the JKl forecast area. The clouds and precip will limit heating, but forecast soundings still show potential for thunder. The soundings are very wet with a tall but rather low CAPE, and modest unidirectional shear. Precipitable water is expected to be near two inches. The situation is supportive of training of efficiently precipitating convection. Despite relatively dry weather in most locations in recent days, there is concern for flash flooding, and a watch was issued in collaboration with MRX and RLX. As upper level support and deep moisture shifts south southeast from our area Thursday night and the cold front moves through, our precip will begin to taper off. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 435 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2021 The long term period will start with an upper level trough over the Upper Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions with a low pressure centered over eastern New York. At the surface, a cold front will be located over the southern portion of the CWA if not just south of the area. Showers and scattered storms are possible Friday morning and early Friday afternoon with PoPs gradually diminishing throughout the day as the cold front continues to move southward. Cool, dry air will move in behind the cold front allow for clear skies and high temperatures below normal through Saturday. The upper level trough will gradually dip southeastward and will be positioned along the Mid Atlantic coast by 00Z Sunday but should stay out of eastern Kentucky as it progresses. Rising heights and developing surface high pressure will keep eastern Kentucky mostly sunny and dry for the holiday weekend and into the beginning of next week. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 70s to around 80, Friday and Saturday. A general warm-up across the area is expected Sunday into the early part of next week with highs in the mid 80s Sunday and around 90 Monday and Tuesday. Over night low are expected to follow an upward trend as well with lows expected in the mid to upper 50s Friday and Saturday night. Lows will be around 60 Sunday night with mid to upper 60s expected Monday and Tuesday night. Overall, the long term period is expected to be quiet with the exception of Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening) ISSUED AT 825 PM EDT WED JUN 30 2021 Isolated convection will generally diminish through late tonight, with mainly VFR conditions prevailing, although some patchy MVFR fog may develop in some of the deeper river valleys, especially at locations coincident with any recent more substantial rainfall. An approaching cold front will then spark renewed showers and scattered thunderstorms from northwest to southeast closer to dawn and especially during the day on Thursday. Ceilings/visibilities will deteriorate down to MVFR/IFR at times. Winds will generally be light through early Thursday morning, before peaking at around 5 kts, mainly from the west southwest to west through the rest of the period. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flash Flood Watch from 6 AM EDT Thursday through late Thursday night for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104- 106>120. && UPDATE...GEOGERIAN SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...BATZ AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED National Weather Service Jackson KY 444 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-011100- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 444 PM EDT Wed Jun 30 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Thunderstorms are possible, and could produce locally heavy rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. Thunderstorms are possible at times from Thursday into Friday. They are expected to bring heavy rainfall to some locations Thursday into Thursday night, which could lead to flash flooding. Thunderstorms will also be possible over much of the area on Tuesday afternoon. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter assistance may be needed to report flooding on Thursday or Thursday night. HAL
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1213 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021
KYZ068-079-010500-
Rockcastle-Pulaski-
1213 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN PULASKI AND WESTERN
ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES...
At 1213 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Hogue, or 11
miles northwest of Somerset, moving east at 20 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Mount Vernon, Bobtown, Hiatt, Gum Sulphur, Bandy, Pongo, Woodstock,
Spiro, Wabp, Lake Linville, Hansford, Willailla, Bee Lick, Wellhope,
Quail, Maretburg, Ottowa, Bloss, Bromo and Luner.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
LAT...LON 3736 8456 3733 8451 3734 8450 3748 8444
3747 8437 3722 8426 3721 8427 3718 8478
3719 8478
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 251DEG 18KT 3724 8469
GREIFSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1222 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021
KYZ079-083-010500-
Wayne-Pulaski-
1222 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN WAYNE AND SOUTHERN
PULASKI COUNTIES...
At 1222 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Naomi, or 9
miles north of Monticello, moving northeast at 25 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.
Locations impacted include...
Somerset, Burnside, Stab, Sloans Valley, Nancy, Pointer, Bronston,
Mount Victory, Pulaski County Park, Somerset Pulaski Airport, Kidder,
Hogue, Naomi, Grade, Ruth, Elihu, Quinton, Betsey and Frazer.
LAT...LON 3695 8491 3700 8484 3703 8489 3704 8489
3721 8473 3701 8431 3699 8434 3685 8480
TIME...MOT...LOC 0422Z 228DEG 21KT 3697 8481
GREIFSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
1248 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021
KYZ068-079-010530-
Rockcastle-Pulaski-
1248 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PULASKI AND SOUTHWESTERN
ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES...
At 1247 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Somerset,
moving northeast at 30 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Somerset, Mount Vernon, Science Hill, Bobtown, Pongo, Woodstock,
Spiro, Wabp, Hansford, Dabney, Valley Oak, Willailla, Pulaski County
Park, Somerset Pulaski Airport, Grade, Maretburg, Ruth, Elihu,
Shopville and Bloss.
LAT...LON 3738 8438 3724 8425 3722 8427 3720 8426
3720 8428 3718 8427 3717 8430 3716 8429
3712 8429 3699 8466 3711 8475
TIME...MOT...LOC 0447Z 234DEG 28KT 3708 8461
GREIFSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
100 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021
KYZ068-069-010545-
Jackson-Rockcastle-
100 AM EDT Thu Jul 1 2021
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN JACKSON AND
NORTHERN ROCKCASTLE COUNTIES...
At 1259 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Snider, or 10
miles north of Mount Vernon, moving northeast at 25 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Mount Vernon, Boone, Snider, Morrill, Bummer, Threelinks, Hiatt,
Conway, Wildie, Kerby Knob, Roundstone, Clover Bottom, Hisel, Lake
Linville, Climax, Renfro Valley, Disputanta, Brazil, Alcorn and
Shirley.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
LAT...LON 3748 8444 3747 8438 3750 8435 3754 8435
3753 8430 3752 8430 3751 8426 3753 8423
3752 8420 3756 8415 3757 8405 3752 8400
3736 8438 3746 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 0459Z 247DEG 20KT 3752 8437
GREIFThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 61 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 05:00 UTC.
4 heavy rain, 1 thunderstorm wind, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A 24-hour rainfall total of 3.25 inches was reported off Beech Fork Road just east-northeast of Clay City.
A tree was reported down across Plato Van Hook Road near the community of Walnut Grove, northeast of Somerset.
The cooperative observer at Cressy measured 5.14 inches of rainfall in a 24-hour period ending at 7 am EDT. An additional 0.95 inches of rain fell during the previous 24 hours, bringing the 48-hour and storm total amount to 6.09 inches.
The cooperative observer at Clay City measured 4.10 inches of rainfall in a 24-hour period ending at 8 am EDT. An additional 0.94 inches of rain fell during the previous 24 hours, bringing the 48-hour and storm total amount to 5.04 inches.
Adams Ridge Road was closed due to high water from Brush Creek.
A member of the public reported a storm total precipitation amount of (estimated) 6 inches.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 958271, 958270, 958277, 958280, 958272, 958274.