Locally heavy rain resulted in some isolated flash flooding in the Purchase area of west Kentucky. S, a prefrontal surface trough acted to quickly spread a swath of heavy rain into the region by daybreak.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PAH wrote it up.
Locally heavy rain resulted in some isolated flash flooding in the Purchase area of west Kentucky. As a 500 mb trough ejected into the central U.S, a prefrontal surface trough acted to quickly spread a swath of heavy rain into the region by daybreak. A surface warm front approached the region from the south, adding to rainfall totals during the day. Within a large area of steady rain, isolated elevated thunderstorms occurred north of the warm front. Storm total rainfall was mostly in the 2 to 4 inch range.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Paducah, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 25, 5:13 AM CST, 2 hours 31 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 513 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 511 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 Updated Aviation discussion for the 12z TAF issuance. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 245 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 Showers are lifting north into southeast Missouri and western Kentucky along a prefrontal trough early this morning. This activity...along with a few rumbles of thunder at times...will continue to spread north through the morning hours. The onset of the rain should allow the murky visibility values to improve a bit across the southern half of CWA. Additional convection across southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas will arrive later this morning into early afternoon as the warm front lifts north toward the AR/TN borders, bringing more locally heavy rain. The orientation of the rain and thunderstorms parallel to the warm front could allow for training to occur. This could lead to some isolated flooding problems. Again considered issuing a flood watch of some kind, but given the antecedent dry conditions, we are optimistic the soil can handle this long duration rainfall event. A final round of showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur this afternoon ahead of the surface cold front. This precipitation will be more progressive, and should not add much to rainfall totals. The storm total QPF remains consistent from the last forecast package...with a swath of 1.5 to 2.5" inches expected across southeast Missouri, south of Highway 13 in southern Illinois, and western Kentucky. Totals diminish to around 1" along Interstate 64. With the trend of the warm front staying confined to Tennessee, high temperatures will be limited to the 40s and 50s across the CWA with the exception of locations immediately along the TN border in western Kentucky, where temperatures will briefly rise into the lower 60s. Being north of the warm front will keep the severe threat minimal at best. The SPC has maintained a marginal risk of severe weather for hail due to elevated instability, but suspect any hail that does occur will be below severe limits. The precipitation will end from west to east from this afternoon into the early evening as the surface low exits the region to the east. Model time- height cross sections show robust low level moisture lingering behind the low, so have trended towards a pessimistic sky forecast tonight through Tuesday, especially for the northern half of the CWA. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 245 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 The next system we continue to watch closely arrives on Wednesday. It does seem the system has sped up a bit to where the impacts of this incoming upper trough will be felt as early as Wednesday morning and it will be out of the area by Wednesday evening. By afternoon, best precipitation chances will be east of the Mississippi River. The problem right now lies in the differences in where the best moisture will be located. The NAM is an outlier showing all the best moisture and any QPF south of us. The rest of the deterministic models show fairly deep moisture arriving during the morning hours across the area. Still think the PoP values will need to be raised given the majority of the GEFS and ECWMF ensembles are indicating precipitation. The NBM has been consistently plugging in 30ish PoPs, which is a good start but believe the chances should be higher. The next big item of concern will be p-type. There have been several different solutions over the past few days on what the moisture/thermal profiles will look like across the CWA. Looking at the latest soundings, it sure looks cold enough for snow just about everywhere. Colder air actually moves in throughout the day as well so that just reinforces the confidences that the p-type should be mainly snow. This could lead to some minor snow accumulations especially on grassy or elevated surfaces, since the surface temperatures will be above freezing. Of course modifications will continue to be made to the forecast as we obtain a better idea of QPF over the next couple of days. We are dry by Wednesday evening and this dry weather lasts through Friday night. Thursday will be a cold day, much like Wednesday. However, as we head toward the latter half of the week and into the first part of the weekend, we will be jumping up in temperatures, with lower to mid 40s on Friday and lower 50s on Saturday as an upper level ridge slowly builds overhead. Our next upper level system still looks to arrive over the weekend, bringing a pretty good chance of rain on Saturday into Saturday night. && .AVIATION... Issued at 511 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 Expecting widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms through this afternoon...along with MVFR fog and low IFR or LIFR cigs. Vsbys could briefly drop to IFR under heavier showers. Precipitation will end from west to east from mid to late afternoon. However, there will be plenty of lingering low level moisture behind the departing surface low, so low IFR/LIFR cigs will continue through the end of the TAFs period along with MVFR fog restrictions. Winds will be generally E-NE through 0z, sustained at 10-15 kts. In the afternoon, gusts up to 20 kts are possible. Late tonight, behind the surface low, winds will become southwest around 5 kts. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && UPDATE...DWS SHORT TERM...DWS LONG TERM...CW AVIATION...DWS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Paducah KY 309 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087- 100-107>112-114-260915- Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton- White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope- Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh- Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves- Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell- Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean- Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter- Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid- 309 AM CST Mon Jan 25 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast Missouri. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity is expected this morning and afternoon across much of the region. Locally heavy rainfall is possible, which may cause minor flooding issues. An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm is possible Monday morning and afternoon across much of the region. Large hail is the primary hazard. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Some light wintry precipitation is possible across much of the region on Wednesday. Impacts from this system are expected to be minimal. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed, but rainfall reports would be appreciated. DWS/CLW
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
519 AM CST MON JAN 25 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 AM TSTM WND GST 4 SSW GRAVELTON 37.24N 90.27W
01/25/2021 M47 MPH WAYNE MO MESONET
MESONET STATION PMRM7 PIEDMONT MO.
&&
DWSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
612 AM CST MON JAN 25 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0603 AM HEAVY RAIN 5 W ASH HILL 36.77N 90.32W
01/25/2021 M1.89 INCH BUTLER MO ASOS
SIX HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE MIDNIGHT AT
ASOS STATION KPOF POPLAR BLUFF MO.
&&
DWSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
744 AM CST MON JAN 25 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0744 AM FLOOD 1 NNE PADUCAH 37.08N 88.63W
01/25/2021 MCCRACKEN KY TRAINED SPOTTER
PARK AVENUE FLOODED AT 26TH STREET IN
PADUCAH.
&&
DWSThe Paducah radar (KPAH), 13 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 13:44 UTC.
4 flood, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
U.S. Highway 60 was flooded at an intersection in Paducah.
Water was over the road and rising on Business Loop 68 in Elkton.
Flash flooding of Champion Creek prompted the closure of Highway 994.
Three inches of water covered Highway 813 near exit 108 of the Pennyrile Parkway / Interstate 69.
Minor to moderate flooding developed on the Green River as a result of heavy rainfall on the 25th. Some low-lying areas in the flood plain were inundated, mostly fields and undeveloped woodland. The river crested at 386.13 feet on the 29th, which is just above the threshold of 386 feet for moderate flooding. The flooding continued into February.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, January 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 935964, 935965, 935967, 935966, 935968.