An unexpected heavy snow event occurred across Bell, Harlan, and Letcher counties on February 7th, 2021. Snowfall amounts varied from an inch in Thornton in Letcher county to nearly 10 inches near Rock House in Harlan county.
Every event with a place to put it; 18 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
An unexpected heavy snow event occurred across Bell, Harlan, and Letcher counties on February 7th, 2021. Snowfall amounts varied from an inch in Thornton in Letcher county to nearly 10 inches near Rock House in Harlan county. Several other locations had snowfall amounts ranging from 3 to nearly 7 inches. Nearly 4000 power outages were reported across our forecast area as a result of this snow event.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 7, 3:35 AM EST, 5 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 335 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 1245 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2021 The best radar returns continue to work into the Cumberland Valley with a transition to snow underway. Further north, the pcpn along the main cold front is lacking but still on the way, snow amounts north of the Hal Rogers Parkway will likely have to be reduced at this rate. The continued need for the current advisory structure - especially in the northwest will be evaluated for the main package release over the next couple of hours. The southern WWAs look on track, with a delayed changeover possibly hindering amounts there as well, but solid advisory amounts are still expected for most. Did an update per radar trends and latest hires model solutions to fine tune the PoPs, QPF, SnowAmt, and Wx grids along with adding in the latest obs and trends to the T/Td grids. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. UPDATE Issued at 1213 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2021 We are now seeing light returns overspread the southwestern portion of our CWA. This is a little slower than what was in the PoP grids, so updated those to better incorporate those trends. Current radar trends suggest some of our most northern counties could see further delays in precip arrival, or less precip in general, but things will have to be monitored to see if trends continue in that direction. Areas down near the Virginia and Tennessee border still look to see the best rates upwards of 1 to 1.5 inches per hour. However the time period of better rates is relatively brief, roughly between 6 and 9z. Given this narrower window, combined with guidance trending back some, the current headlines have been kept. Confidence is just not high enough that the southeast counties will reach warning criteria. Outside of PoPs, mostly just blended in current obs. Updates have been sent and new zones were generated. UPDATE Issued at 820 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2021 Currently, a surface boundary lies across Kentucky, oriented from northeast to southwest. Behind this boundary, temperatures have started to drop down to the mid to low 30s, while areas ahead of the boundary remain slightly warmer in the mid to upper 30s. The only exception would be some of the eastern valleys, where cloud cover was initially more sparse than expected, leading to somewhat of a quick dropoff in temperatures. These valleys could continue to drop for a couple more hours or so until some of the more opaque cloud cover moves in. The hourly temp grids were edited to better incorporate these trends. Precipitation wise, the bulk of the precip lies to our southeast, as well as to our west, with snow currently falling out in western Kentucky. PoP grids are still representative of current trends and recent guidance, so not much was needed there. Will continue to monitor the newest guidance as it comes in to evaluate the need for any adjustments elsewhere, but for the moment, things look on track. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night) Issued at 459 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2021 The afternoon surface analysis shows a weak boundary nearby. In the mid-levels a shortwave is evident moving into the ARKLATEX region. This feature will be one of the players for tonight’s snow setup. Overall afternoon highs have been limited due to cloud cover. Tonight, this shortwave feature will swing east, and this will help pull a cold front across the region late tonight into early Sunday. There is a warm nose that will progress north, with a mid-level front setting up along the Tennessee/Virginia border. We will slowly moisten up through the evening from southwest to northeast. This will allow for precipitation to start to fall this evening. Given the wet bulb temperature are around freezing this afternoon, we will see temperatures dynamically cool toward the wet bulb as precipitation increases. This will change over the rain/snow mix to all snow through the late evening and overnight. The mid-level frontogenesis mentioned early on will combine with the wave to lead to stronger omega at times within the DGZ. That said, this could lead to higher rates and even banded precipitation, with negative EPV and 700 mb frontogenesis noted. The HREF does have some hints of these better rates in the far southeast and this will have to be watched for potential upgrades if the snow is able to overachieve. This system will quickly pull east by early Sunday with the quickly moving shortwave. Overall best chances for higher accumulations will be in the far southeast, with lesser amounts of an inch or less in the Bluegrass. Sunday, the snow will exit east by late morning with left over flurries through the afternoon in the far east. There will be clearing skies from west to east through day. Highs will top in the low to mid 30s for most spots. Sunday night, There is a weak wave that pushes across the Ohio Valley, but overall looking at high to possibly mid-level clouds in the Bluegrass with this feature. Outside of this high pressure will move through the northern parts of the Ohio Valley, with low 20s to teens for lows across eastern Kentucky under the influence of this surface ridge. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 335 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2021 Very cold temperatures and nasty wintery weather will all be in the mix in the extended period. The latest model data is pointing to the possibility of rain, freezing rain, and snow Tuesday night through early Wednesday evening across eastern Kentucky. Any freezing rain we experience would occur generally north of the Hal Rogers Parkway. Periods of light snow will then be possible across this same general area from Wednesday night through early Friday, as very cold air spills into the area behind a departing arctic cold front. Light accumulations of ice due to freezing rain will be possible from late Tuesday night through early Wednesday evening north of the Hal Rogers Parkway. Light snow accumulations will also be possible across the same general area from Wednesday night through early Friday. A large scale trough of low pressure aloft will be moving across southern Canada during the extended. Flow around this upper level feature will be what eventually allows arctic air to spill into our part of the country. A series of weak surface based systems are then forecast to move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys from mid- week onward. These surface systems will be the primary triggers for the wintry weather we are expecting for eastern Kentucky. Temperatures in the extended will be well below normal on average from Wednesday onward. An outbreak of arctic air is expected going into next weekend, with low temperatures possibly falling into the teens and single digits around eastern Kentucky. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 110 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2021 VFR conditions still prevail for the moment at the TAF sites, though MVFR, or worse, conditions are likely occurring south and east of the Hal Rogers Parkway as a transition to snow is underway. As such, cigs will quickly lower to MVFR levels for all TAF sites, except perhaps SYM, as the column further moistens and the pcpn mores in to the north more solidly. Conditions continue to falter through the early morning hours then quickly drop to IFR for most sites with the snow setting in more completely. The precipitation will also bring vis down, especially in our south and east where periods of heavier snowfall rates will likely bring them down to IFR levels or lower. The snow then moves out quickly from west to east after sunset on the heels of the main cold front by mid morning. Conditions should then gradually improve to VFR levels as we head into the afternoon. Winds will be fairly light through the period, shifting from a more southeast to northwest direction by morning. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for KYZ052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120. && UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...DJ LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...GREIF
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 325 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 KYZ052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-081130- Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel- Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Elliott-Morgan-Johnson- Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie- Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 325 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Accumulating snow will occur for most of the area early this morning, with snow totals of generally 1 to 3 inches. Locally higher amounts closer to 4 inches will likely occur near the Virginia and Tennessee borders. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Multiple rounds of wintry precipitation will be possible from mid to late in the week. Light ice accumulations due to freezing rain will be possible Tuesday night through Wednesday evening north of the Hal Rogers Parkway, with light snow accumulations also possible Wednesday night through early Friday. In addition, a much colder airmass is expected to arrive at the end of the week and may lead to the coldest temperature readings so far this winter season. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report snow amount this morning. KYZ044-050-051-081130- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, and Owingsville 325 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. Light snow accumulations of a dusting to less than an inch are possible early this morning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Multiple rounds of wintry precipitation will be possible from mid to late in the week. Light ice accumulations due to freezing rain will be possible Tuesday night through Wednesday evening, with light snow accumulations also possible Wednesday night through early Friday. In addition, a much colder airmass is expected to arrive at the end of the week and may lead to the coldest temperature readings so far this winter season. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to call in any snow reports this morning. GREIF/AR
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Jackson KY 1046 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 KYZ044-050-051-071400- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, and Owingsville 1046 PM EST Sat Feb 6 2021 ...Accumulating Snow Possible Tonight... A cold front will sweep across the area overnight, bringing in a shot of colder air and a period of light snow. Generally less than an inch of snow is possible by Sunday morning for places generally along and north of interstate 64. Higher snow amounts are forecast to the south. Some slick or snow covered roads will be possible for a time overnight and may cause hazardous travel conditions. JP/HAS
Special Weather Statement...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 255 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 KYZ044-050-051-071230- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, and Owingsville 255 AM EST Sun Feb 7 2021 ...Accumulating Snow Possible Early This Morning... A cold front will sweep across the area early this morning, bringing in a shot of colder air and a period of light snow. Generally less than an inch of snow is possible by dawn this morning for places generally along and north of interstate 64. Higher snow amounts are forecast to the south. Some slick or snow covered roads will be possible for a time early this morning and may cause a brief period of hazardous travel conditions. DJ/GREIF
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
9 winter weather, 9 heavy snow. Local standard time, as filed.
An inch of snow had fallen at Thornton, and it was still snowing heavily at the time of the report.
A volunteer weather observer reported that 3.5 inches of snow had fallen near Whitesburg.
A member of the public reported that 8.3 inches of snow had fallen since midnight near Gatun. Two to six inches of wet snow coated power lines and tree limbs. Some eventually broke and fell onto nearby power lines which caused some power outages.
A member of the public reported that 8 to 9 inches of snow had fallen near Mary Alice.
A member of the public reported that 6.5 inches of snow had fallen in Mayking.
A member of the public reported that 9.8 inches of snow had fallen near Rock House.
A resident of Beverly reported that 2.5 inches of snow had fallen at his location.
The 24 hour warning point in Pineville reported that 3.5 inches of snow had fallen and that it was still snowing heavily at the time of this report. The snow was coming down so fast that snow plows could not keep the area roads clear.
A member of the public reported that 6 to 7 inches of snow had fallen in Frakes.
A member of the public reported that 6 inches of snow had fallen near Wallins Creek.
A member of the public reported that 6.5 inches of snow had fallen near Loyall.
A member of the public reported that 4 inches of snow had fallen near Carcassone.
A volunteer weather observer reported that 1.1 inches of snow had fallen near Deering.
A volunteer weather observer reported that 2.7 inches of snow had fallen near Skyline.
A volunteer weather observer reported that an inch of snow had fallen near Clover Bottom.
A trained weather spotter reported that 2.5 inches of snow had fallen in Whitley City.
A member of the public reported that 3 inches of snow had fallen near Slemp.
A member of the public reported that 4.5 inches of snow had fallen in Strunk.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 933524, 933533, 933534, 933538, 933542, 933543, 933525, 933526, 933537, 933527, 933529, 933528, 933531, 933532, 933535, 933536, 933540, 933541.