Winter Storm and Heavy Snow in Kentucky, February 17 to 18, 2021

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
429 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 429 PM EST WED FEB 17 2021

While we remain in an area of relative subsidence this afternoon,
this will all change heading into this evening as a vort max
crossing the lower Mississippi river valley ejects northeastward
this evening. Strong forcing aloft will lead to widespread
precipitation breaking out into the evening hours and continuing
overnight. Thermal profiles support all snow to start tonight
(perhaps a brief period of sleet at the onset). We have some
frontogenetical forcing that could lead to banded precipitation
tonight and that seems to be best along or just south of the Hal
Rogers Parkway. If this band develops, snowfall rates could exceed
1 inch per hour. Even if the band does not develop, snowfall rates
should be sufficient to generate a widespread 4 inches across most
of the current warning area. Plan to stick with the advisory in
Fleming county as amounts should be lesser to the far north. We
may even struggle to reach 4 inches across the northern half of
the warning area, but given the potential for significant impacts
to places that have already seen ice, opted to not make any
changes right now.

We should get dry slotted fairly well early Thursday, so that
should end the heavy precipitation threat. However, could be
potential for freezing drizzle, so will continue with the warning
through the day. However, in all likelihood, the warning may need
to be transitioned to a winter weather advisory or SPS at some
point tomorrow morning. Any freezing drizzle should have minimal
impacts with the main impacts coming from the heavy wet snow
tonight. We could get a bit more ice by the afternoon as we get
some ascent in the dry slot and that could allow for a few snow
showers to develop Thursday afternoon, but not great confidence on
the scenario right now. By Friday night, looks like the shallow
moisture will linger, leading to a continued threat for freezing
drizzle. Again, may need an SPS or advisory for this threat, but
will evaluate that at a later time. Temperatures will turn sharply
colder late Thursday night as this system finally departs.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 320 PM EST WED FEB 17 2021

After some lingering winter weather on Friday, there finally
appears to be some light at the end of the tunnel for the folks of
eastern Kentucky. Cold air and moisture lingering behind a
departing area of low pressure, will allow for isolated instances
of freezing rain, freezing drizzle, and sleet to linger around
eastern Kentucky during the day on Friday. Little if any
additional ice or snow accumulation is expected from that last
round of precipitation. After that, we should see a ridge of
high pressure settle over the region over the weekend, which
should bring dry weather and a gradual warming trend to the area.
As drier air moves in on Saturday, cloud cover will retreat from
south to north through out the day, giving way to mostly clear
skies by Saturday afternoon. This trend is expected to continue
Saturday night. As winds shift to the south Saturday night and
Sunday, temperatures will warm quite a bit, especially on Sunday.
In fact, we may see highs topping out in the mid to upper 40s for
most locations.

Another round of precipitation is on tap from late Sunday through
late Monday, as another area of low pressure moves across the
region. This system will be fairly progressive, and temperatures
should be warm enough by then to keep wintry precip at a minimum.
A mixture of rain and snow should be the worst weather we see to
begin the new work week. Some very light snow accumulations may
occur for some locations if the snow can fall hard enough at
times, but all in all it should be a minimal event. The increased
cloud cover and precip on Monday will keep temperatures a bit
cooler than what we anticipate for Sunday. Highs on Monday still
won't be too bad, with max values in the low to mid 40s expected.
After the precip ends Monday evening, and another ridge of high
pressure moves in, we may see a trend of the warmest temperatures
around eastern Kentucky that we have seen in many weeks. The
current model data is suggesting we could see highs in the upper
40s to lower 50s around eastern Kentucky next Tuesday and
Wednesday. This all sounds great, but we always have to be
cautious when looking and forecast model data that far out in the
future, so we will continue to that part of the forecast with a
grain of salt for now. However, it is nice to finally see the
forecast data trending toward warmer, non-winterlike conditions
for the first time in what seems like a very long time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EST WED FEB 17 2021

Low ceilings are hanging tough this afternoon with low level
northeast flow. This may keep MVFR/IFR cigs around through much of
the afternoon. Our next system will bring more precipitation into
east Kentucky tonight with widespread snow through the overnight
hours, transitioning to drizzle or freezing drizzle around 12z in
the morning. The drizzle and fog may stick around through much of
tomorrow keeping IFR or MVFR conditions going.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Thursday for KYZ050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for KYZ044.

&&

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson KY
349 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

KYZ050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-190000-
Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle-Jackson-
Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan-Elliott-
Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott-Owsley-
Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike-
Including the cities of Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling,
Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton,
Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside,
Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin,
Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland,
Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton,
Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson,
Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden,
Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville,
and South Williamson
349 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM
EST THURSDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Snow, which could be heavy at times, is expected to develop this
evening and continue overnight. A changeover to rain is possible
south of the Hal Rogers Parkway late tonight, before the heavy
precipitation ends around dawn. Moderate to heavy accumulations of
snow are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Periods of freezing drizzle may be seen from Thursday through
Friday morning. There is also a chance for some snow showers
Thursday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to send reports of significant snow
accumulations.

KYZ044-190000-
Fleming-
Including the city of Flemingsburg
349 PM EST Wed Feb 17 2021

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST THURSDAY...

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Snow will develop this evening and continue through tonight.
Light snow accumulations are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Some light snow, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle, will
linger from Thursday into Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to send reports of significant snow
accumulations.

KAS/AR