A significant winter/ice storm struck eastern Kentucky from February 14th to 16th 2021. 75 inches by the the time the storm had ended.
Every event with a place to put it; 65 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
A significant winter/ice storm struck eastern Kentucky from February 14th to 16th 2021. Ice accumulations from freezing rain ranged from 0.25 inches to as much as 0.75 inches by the the time the storm had ended. Sleet accumulations of 0.3 to as much as 2 inches also occurred. The weight of the ice brought down tree limbs, entire trees, power lines, and power poles all across eastern Kentucky. The highest ice accumulations occurred primarily along the higher ridges around eastern Kentucky with much lower amounts in the surrounding valleys. During the height of the icing event, many roads around eastern Kentucky were impassable or nearly so. Many power outages resulted from downed power lines.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 14, 6:55 PM EST, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 655 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 640 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2021 23z sfc analysis shows the edge of the arctic air pressing into eastern Kentucky with temperatures varying from the mid 20s in the northwest to the low 30s in the far southeast - but 38 degrees on Black Mountain notably. Light radar returns continue to stream over the area with light freezing rain and drizzle the likely the ground truth beneath these returns. This is probably adding another glaze of ice to most surfaces in the colder air seeing temps below 30 degrees. Dewpoints leave some room for additional cooling most places - running from the low 20s west to near 30 in the far east - again at a mild 38 on Black Mountain. Winds hold from the northeast at 5 to 10 kts locking this edge of the arctic air in place. Little has changed with the ongoing forecast as reports of light rain/freezing drizzle and another round of icing are coming in. Have updated the grids mainly to add in the current obs and trends for the T/Td grids. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web servers. Look for another round of updates to the text products as warnings go into effect at the top of the hour in the west. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 633 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2021 A very complicated forecast is at hand to say the least. First up, freezing drizzle is ongoing over much of the area due to lift of persistent low level moisture trapped beneath and inversion. A However, much more significant weather is on the way. A winter weather advisory is in place to address the freezing drizzle until warnings go into effect for most of the area later this evening for the more significant weather. The heavier precip on the way is due to a couple of upper level systems which are upstream. A weak mid/upper level trough currently over the lower Mississippi Valley was ejected northeast into faster flow due to a stronger shortwave trough currently dropping southeast in TX. The first trough will bring deeper overrunning moisture northeast into KY overnight. The significant precipitation with this first wave will depart to the northeast early on Monday. Early Monday, the next shortwave will round the base of a large scale longwave trough over the CONUS, and will further buckle the flow over our area as it approaches. It will prompt surface low development over the northern gulf early Monday, with the low then traveling northeast along or just east of the central Appalachians on Monday night. The nose of an associated anticyclonically curved upper level jet will also impinge on the area late Monday into Monday evening, providing lift. The system will bring substantial overrunning moisture/precipitation, along with an elevated warm layer. Models have trended warmer with this, with the NAM being the most pronounced. The result is the entire transitional precip regime shifting toward the northwest since earlier forecasts. Some areas near the Virginia are now expecting a change to plain rain on Monday, with only advisory level amounts of ice. The change also results in substantial amounts of freezing rain further northwest, and less snow and more sleet in the far northwest portion of the area. The system should also move a bit more quickly than was expected when headlines originally went out, and it could very well be out of the area sooner than the currently headlines suggest. All in all, warning criteria for ice is expected to be met over most of the area. If there is anything good to be said, it's that the area hardest hit by the last ice storm (northern part of the forecast area) is still expected to avoid the heaviest ice this time around, and could see large amounts of sleet instead. However, with ice still on the trees, anything added on would be prone to cause more problems, and trends will still need to be monitored in case more shifts in precip type occur. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 557 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2021 The models remain in good agreement maintaining a highly amplified long wave pattern across the CONUS through the end of the work week, before a very welcomed transition to more zonal flow takes hold for the weekend. Details regarding surface features still remain a bit murky for the middle of the week, given that this is still beyond Day 3, so will rely more on a blend of the guidance, along with generalized impacts. Broad troughing will be entrenched across the CONUS early Tuesday, with short wave energy making a fast move from the Ohio Valley through New England. Upstream, short wave energy will be diving southeast across the Rockies. In addition to this, short wave energy, within the northern stream, will also be inbound from southwest Canada. Through Friday, these two aforementioned features will converge and potentially phase somewhat as they move across the Mississippi Valley. This allows for low pressure to emerge from the northern Gulf Coast and shift across the Southern Appalachians and eventually through the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic region. This system then deepens more so off of the Eastern Seaboard by Friday. High pressure will then move from the Plains through Mississippi Valley through this weekend, before another more progressive system moves in across the Ohio Valley towards the end of the period. Tuesday will see diminishing precipitation across eastern Kentucky, mainly in the form of light freezing rain/drizzle or flurries through the morning. Drier weather takes hold briefly Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning, before the next system bears down on us from the southwest. Precipitation will overspread the area quickly by Wednesday night and continues solidly through Thursday evening. Thermal profiles are still very much in question, and will maintain a rain/snow mix; however, if the warm nose trends deeper and is more sustained, then another period of freezing rain, some potentially significant, would be possible, as ground temperatures would likely be below freezing heading into this event. As colder air moves in Thursday night into Friday, precipitation will transition to light snow. The QPF continues to look beefier with this system, with the GEFS showing clustering in the 1 to 2 inch range, as well as the 2 to 3 inch range. These higher totals would equate to the 95th percentile or higher on the NBM. The ECMWF/Canadian models show lower amounts. Given the uncertainty, will maintain generalized impacts; however, besides the winter weather potential, some potential hydro issues would also emerge, if the bigger numbers are realized. Things dry out Friday into Saturday, with slight chance PoPs returning by late Sunday. For temperatures, kept readings more diurnally limited Tuesday through Wednesday, given the plentiful cloud cover, and ice/sleet and some snow to melt off. Stuck fairly close to the blended numbers thereafter, with temperatures likely not returning to near normal until Sunday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) ISSUED AT 655 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2021 Conditions are IFR or worse at the start of the period. There are also some areas of freezing drizzle - even in spots only reporting BR. Little change from this status is expected until overnight tonight when conditions should slip to LIFR or worse everywhere, and precipitation will become more substantial, largely taking the form of freezing rain. However, some sleet and snow will likely also occur, mainly northwest of a line from Somerset to Paintsville. The wintery pcpn will stretch through the period with horrible aviation conditions continuing. Winds will also remain relatively unchanging through the period - generally from the northeast at 5 to 10 kts. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Tuesday for KYZ044-050>052- 058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084. Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for KYZ068- 069-079-080-083-084. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM EST Monday for KYZ087-088-118. Ice Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday for KYZ085-086-110-113-115>117-119-120. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for KYZ085- 086-104-106>117-119-120. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Tuesday for KYZ104-106>109-111-112-114. && UPDATE...GREIF SHORT TERM...HAL LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN AVIATION...HAL/GREIF
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson KY 735 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021 KYZ104-106>109-111-112-114-151315- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Lee-Breathitt-Owsley- Including the cities of Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Beattyville, Jackson, and Booneville 735 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Areas of freezing drizzle will give way to heavier wintery precipitation during the night. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Wintery precipitation is expected on Monday into Monday night, with any remaining precipitation tapering off on Tuesday. The heaviest precipitation should occur on Monday afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is for heavy accumulations of ice from freezing rain. Wintery precipitation is also possible at times from Wednesday into Friday, with a potential for travel impacts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to send reports of significant snow, sleet, or ice accumulations. KYZ085-086-110-113-115>117-119-120-151315- Whitley-Knox-Floyd-Knott-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 735 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Areas of freezing drizzle will give way to more substantial freezing rain during the night. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Wintery precipitation is expected on Monday into Monday night, with any remaining precipitation tapering off on Tuesday. The heaviest precipitation should occur on Monday afternoon and evening. The greatest threat is for heavy accumulations of ice from freezing rain. Wintery precipitation is also possible at times from Wednesday into Friday, with a potential for travel impacts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to send reports of significant ice accumulations. KYZ087-088-118-151315- Bell-Harlan-Letcher- Including the cities of Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Jenkins, and Whitesburg 735 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST MONDAY... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Areas of freezing drizzle will give way to more substantial freezing rain during the night for much of the area. However, some locations may only see plain drizzle and rain. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Freezing rain is forecast to linger into the day Monday in many locations, before changing to regular rain. Freezing drizzle is possible again Monday night. Wintery precipitation is also possible at times from Wednesday into Friday, with a potential for travel impacts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to send reports of significant ice accumulations. KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083-084-151315- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, and Whitley City 735 PM EST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY... This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. A mixture of wintery precipitation will occur tonight, especially late. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. A mixture of wintery precipitation will occur on Monday into Monday night, with any remaining precipitation tapering off on Tuesday. The heaviest precipitation is expected Monday afternoon and evening. Wintery precipitation is also possible at times from Wednesday into Friday, with a potential for travel impacts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to send reports of significant snow, sleet, and ice accumulations. HAL/GREIF
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
50 ice storm, 10 sleet, 4 winter storm, 1 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
One quarter of an inch of ice accumulation due to freezing occurring around much of Clay county.
Two thirds of an inch of ice due to freezing rain and a third of an inch of sleet accumulation occurred near Booneville.
The ASOS at WFO JKL measured 0.41 inches of total ice accumulation since 4 am on Monday, February 15th, with 0.14 inches of that ice having accumulated since 7 pm on February 15th.
Up to half an inch of ice accumulation due to freezing rain occurred in the higher elevations around Leslie county, with much less ice in the valleys. The weight of the ice brought down tree limbs, entire trees, and power lines around the county. The downed trees, limbs, and power lines blocked many roads.
Ice accumulation on a power line near Wilhurst caused the power line and power pole to catch on fire. This occurred near the junction of Highways 205 and 1812.
Around a third of an inch of ice accumulation due to freezing rain occurred at elevations above 1300 feet in Knott county.
A half an inch of ice accumulation due to freezing rain occurred at the higher elevations in northern portions of Pike county.
One half to three quarters of an inch of ice accumulation due to freezing rain, along with one half to three quarters of an inch of sleet, occurred near Beattyville.
Three quarters of an inch of ice accumulation due to freezing rain, and up to 1.25 inches of sleet accumulation, occurred in and around Frenchburg.
Half an inch of ice accumulation due to freezing rain occurred in and around West Liberty.
The weight of ice accumulation from freezing rain brought down several trees along Quicksand Rd.
One quarter to one half of an inch of ice accumulation due to freezing rain occurred around the county.
A half an inch of ice accumulation due to freezing rain, and two inches of sleet accumulation, occurred in and around Stanton.
One quarter of an inch of ice accumulation due to freezing rain occurred in and around Oneida.
One quarter of an inch of ice accumulation due to freezing rain occurred near Bulan, mainly on the ridges.
Half an inch of ice accumulation due to freezing rain and two inches of sleet accumulation occurred in and around Sandy Hook.
One quarter of an inch of ice accumulation due to freezing rain occurred near North Corbin.
A little over three tenths of an inch of ice accumulation due to freezing rain occurred in and around Inez. The weight of the ice brought down trees and power lines around the county.
Half inch of ice accumulation due to freezing rain occurred near Stambaugh. The weight of the ice caused trees and power lines to come down on Highway 23. The highway had to be temporarily shut down due to the road being blocked by the trees and power lines.
One quarter of an inch of ice accumulation due to freezing rain occurred around the county. The weight of the ice caused trees to come down through out the county.
Three tenths of an inch of ice accumulation due to freezing rain occurred in and around North Corbin.
The weight of ice from freezing rain caused a tree to fall onto a trailer home near Yeadon.
The weight of ice from freezing rain caused trees and power lines to come down on KY 201 near B-Mart.
The weight of ice from freezing rain caused a tree to come down on KY 404 near Dock.
The weight of ice from freezing rain caused a tree to come down on KY 550E at Jones Fork Mountain near Larkslane, causing the road to be blocked for a short time.
The weight of ice from freezing rain caused multiple trees to come down long KY28 toward Buckhorn Lake.
The weight of ice from freezing rain caused a tree to come down on KY52 near Horseshoe Bend.
Ice accumulation on a transformer on HWY 30 near Shoulder Blade caused the transformer to spark and catch on fire.
The weight of ice from freezing rain brought down a tree on Hwy 1098 in Quicksand.
The weight of ice from freezing rain caused a tree to come down onto a power pole off of Hwy 1812 near the Wolfe county line.
The weight of ice from freezing rain caused a tree to come down and across Hwy 114 near Ivyton.
The weight of ice from freezing rain caused trees to come down and onto Hwy 30 between mile markers 16 and 17 near Noctor.
The weight of ice from freezing rain caused 3 large pine trees to come down and across Hwy 122 between mile markers 6 and 8 near Alphoretta.
The weight of ice from freezing rain caused a tree to come down and onto KY 2029 just past Junction at Laurel Fork.
The weight of ice from freezing rain caused a tree to come down along KY 582 near Puncheon.
Two inches of sleet accumulation was observed in Ravenna.
An inch of sleet accumulation was observed in Flemingsburg.
The weight of ice from freezing rain caused a tree to come down on KY 191 near Daysboro.
Two inches of sleet accumulation was observed in Hilda.
The weight of ice from freezing rain caused a tree to fall onto a nearby power line, thereby causing the power line to spark and catch on fire. This occurred near High Falls.
A quarter of an inch of ice accumulation due to freezing rain occurred near Bays Branch.
The weight of ice from freezing rain caused a tree to come down in Lone.
The weight of ice from freezing rain caused a tree to come down near Houston.
The weight of ice from freezing rain caused a tree to come down an onto a power line in Oil Springs.
A trained spotter measured 0.32 inches of ice accumulation on a fallen tree in Whitley City.
Several trees were brought down by the weight of ice along KY 406 in Essie.
A tree was brought down by the weight of ice near Mashfork.
A tree was brought down by the weight of ice on it near Meatscaffold Branch in Stevenson.
A tree was brought down due to the weight of ice on it on KY 3237 in Canoe.
A quarter of an inch of ice accumulation due to freezing rain was observed near Monticello.
A tree, brought down due to the weight of ice on it, landed on a power line. This caused the power line to spark, which then caused the tree to catch on fire. This occurred near Stambaugh.
The ASOS station at the London-Corbin Airport recorded 0.27 inches of ice accumulation due to freezing rain.
A tree was brought down due to the weight of ice on it in the community of Sitka.
An inch and a half of sleet accumulation was observed near Owingsville.
One and two tenths of an inch of sleet accumulation was observed near Oggs Station.
Two tenths of an inch of ice accumulation due to freezing rain was observed near Jackson.
A tree fell due to weight of ice on it. The tree fell onto a nearby home and some power lines along KY 618 near Brodhead.
Half an inch of sleet accumulation was observed in Sandgap.
Half an inch of sleet accumulation was observed near Waltz.
Half an inch of sleet accumulation was observed near Jeffersonville.
Half an inch of sleet accumulation was observed in Morehead.
Three quarters of an inch of ice accumulation due to freezing rain was observed in Eubank.
Three tenths of an inch of ice accumulation due to freezing rain was observed in Spiro.
Half an inch of sleet accumulation was observed in Spiro.
A tree was brought down due to the weight of ice on it on Hwy 213 on the Powell county side, causing the road to be blocked and closed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 938026, 938027, 938029, 938030, 938034, 938036, 938037, 938038, 938040, 938042, 938044, 938046, 938047, 938048, 938049, 938051, 938052, 938053, 938055, 938056, 938057, 938058, 938059, 938060, 938061, 938062, 938063, 938065, 938068, 938070, 938071, 938072, 938073, 938074, 938075, 938076, 938077, 938078, 938079, 938090, and more.