Hail and Damaging Winds in Kansas, June 20, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
315 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 314 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

Some severe storms possible this afternoon generally from Hiawatha
back through Council Grove and points southeast with a damaging wind
threat and hail being the primary concerns.  A cold front pushes
through overnight and brings Monday morning showers with a pleasant
start to the work week temperature-wise.

Today, the upper pattern has slightly amplified with a broader
trough east to west across the northern tier of the CONUS.  Another
shortwave is noted diving southeast through Montana at this hour.
Nearer to the forecast area, the primary shortwave has moved into
western IA with height falls just ahead of it per 12Z UA data.  At
the surface, a pre-frontal trough is noted across the area from east
of Marysville through the Manhattan area and becoming harder to
define with daytime mixing taking place.  The main cold front is
over south central NE extending into north central KS.

Mixing should continue this afternoon which will help to erode the
cap in place into the late afternoon.  A more well developed cu
field has been expanding and maturing north of the area into IA,
northwestern MO and southeastern NE vicinity.  Per SPC mesoanalysis
plots, MLCAPE has increased to around 3,000 J/kg over this general
area with MLCIN suggesting the environment is becoming more
uncapped.  Still a modest amount of MLCIN remains over the Topeka
forecast area.  With the better forcing displaced northeast of the
area, it will likely require more mixing and then the front to
advance into the area to help kick off storms that are anticipated
by late afternoon into early evening.  Again, this could be as far
north as from Brown Co back down through Morris Co or as far
southeast as the I-335 corridor.  Regardless of initiation time and
actual location, hazards anticipated will be mainly a damaging wind
threat with the inverted V sounding setup with DCAPE well about the
1,000 J/kg range.  Shear in the cloud bearing layer would likely
result in somewhat disorganized storms so rotation would likely be
best exhibited with early storms that remain semi discrete.  These
likely contain the hail threat too with probably around quarter size
hail considering the overall shear is forecast to remain under 40kts
and freezing level above 14kft.  However, if a well established
updraft can be maintained with a rotating storm then it would be
possible to see larger hail possibly up to 2 inch in diameter.  Not
everyone will see a storm this afternoon/evening and they will
generally move southeast of the area by 8-9pm.

Early Monday morning, the aforementioned shortwave should work into
the area through overall flow pattern bringing with it a more
widespread area of showers and some embedded thunderstorms.  This
would be welcome moisture to the area as many spots continue to dry
out with lower frequency of meaningful moisture as of recent.  Into
Monday afternoon an expansive high builds into the area bringing
very pleasant dry conditions through Tuesday and part of Wednesday.
Have left a mainly dry forecast through the week with only a couple
of small rain and storm chances into the end of this work week.
Another cold front is forecast to push into the area late Friday
bringing increased storm chances.  This will be a period of interest
with outdoor events going on across the area.  After the front
pushes through, we should be rewarded with a very nice weekend if
timing stays on track with current thinking.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

VFR conditions for this afternoon but storms may form over or
around the KTOP/KFOE terminals late this afternoon. They could
become severe and pose a wind hazard but quickly move southeast.
Mid level clouds move back in this evening ahead of another
weather system bringing showers and light rain into the morning
tomorrow. Winds turn northwesterly then northerly behind the cold
front that moves through later this evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Drake
AVIATION...Drake

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Topeka KS
317 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-212030-
Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley-
Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris-
Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson-
317 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north
central and northeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and tonight.

Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along a frontal
boundary this afternoon and evening generally along and southeast
of a line from Brown county through Morris county. Damaging winds
will be the primary hazard with large hail also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at...
http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
626 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

KSZ039-040-210000-
Shawnee-Douglas-
626 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHAWNEE AND
NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 626 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Pauline, moving east at 35 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Topeka, Tecumseh, Richland, Lecompton, Clinton, Clinton Lake, Pauline
and Berryton.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 172 and 194.

LAT...LON 3887 9575 3904 9578 3909 9560 3906 9560
      3905 9558 3907 9555 3907 9551 3905 9550
      3907 9546 3906 9540 3887 9538
TIME...MOT...LOC 2326Z 265DEG 31KT 3896 9568

Teefey

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
653 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

KSZ026-040-210015-
Jefferson-Douglas-
653 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON AND NORTH
CENTRAL DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

At 653 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Williamstown, moving east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northern Lawrence, Perry, Lecompton and Williamstown.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 196 and 205.

LAT...LON 3913 9519 3898 9519 3897 9537 3907 9540
      3915 9518 3913 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 2353Z 259DEG 43KT 3904 9530

Teefey

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Topeka KS
657 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

KSZ039-040-210030-
Shawnee-Douglas-
657 PM CDT Sun Jun 20 2021

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SHAWNEE AND
NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 657 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Berryton, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Southern Topeka, Richland, Clinton, Clinton Lake and Berryton.

This includes Kansas Turnpike between mile markers 190 and 193.

LAT...LON 3886 9536 3886 9550 3887 9550 3887 9568
      3895 9572 3903 9542
TIME...MOT...LOC 2357Z 260DEG 25KT 3891 9565

Teefey