A mixture of snow, sleet and some freezing rain occurred across northeast Kansas on Friday January 1st. Any ice accumulation was limited to the far southeast counties in NWS Topeka's service area and remained less than one quarter inch.
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The episode as NWS TOP wrote it up.
A mixture of snow, sleet and some freezing rain occurred across northeast Kansas on Friday January 1st. Any ice accumulation was limited to the far southeast counties in NWS Topeka's service area and remained less than one quarter inch. There was a band of heavy snow that set up across Osage into Shawnee County that produced an axis of 4-6 inches with isolated higher amounts reported. Outside of this band snow amounts ranged from 1 to 4 inches.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Topeka, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 1, 4:38 AM CST, 22 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 438 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 ...AVIATION UPDATE... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 08Z water vapor imagery and profiler data showed a closed upper low moving north over eastern OK with upper level difluence overspreading the forecast area. At the surface, a low pressure center was over southeast OK. There have been a few reports across Anderson and Coffey counties of mix precip already. In general the forecast looks to be in reasonable shape with how the winter weather looks to unfold. The main adjustment has been to tighten the gradient in POPs and QPF on the northwestern edge of the expected precip. Looking at the 00Z RAOB from TOP, there was quite a bit of dry air ahead of the system. And much of the guidance including the CAMs have showed the precip struggling to make it as far west as Abilene and Manhattan. Based on the RAOB and the models tendency to take the 500MB low into central MO with the better dynamics remaining east of these areas, think snow amounts of an inch or more are unlikely and will cancel the western row of counties from the winter weather advisory. Further east, the NAM and GFS show a pretty well defined TROWAL and frontogenesis impacting east central KS if for a brief period of time. It looks like the better dynamics will be over the area from about 10Z until about 16Z or 18Z. And there are indications for some conditional symmetric instability above the frontal zone, although it is kind of high above the front so I'm not sure how much influence it may have on vertical motions. In any case there is high confidence in a wintry mix of precipitation continuing to move north and eventually transitioning to all snow through the morning. The forcing looks to move east with the low pressure system fairly quickly and is likely to cause precip to taper off through the afternoon. Models have tended to show less of the warm nose over the forecast area. But recent reports suggest the models are not strong enough with the warm nose, at least initially. So think for the counties with the winter storm warning, there could be a little more sleet and freezing rain through about 12Z or 13Z which would lower snow totals. However with the potential for around a half inch of sleet and a tenth or two of freezing rain, I plan to keep the warning going as it. In general I think the snow totals could be a little lower, more in the 3 to 5 inch range for a couple reasons. First the forcing over the area is relatively short lived while the low pressure system gradually weakens. So there is about a 5 to 6 hour window for snow to accumulate. Second this is not a very cold system with respect to snow to liquid ratios (SLR). Most of the guidance is suggesting SLR between 7 and 10:1 when climatologically we normally see a ratio around 13:1. Since there is not a lot of cold air wrapping into the system, I think the lower ratios are probably going to hold. So the small window for accumulations and the lower than normal SLR suggest getting 6 inches of snow or more is a low probability. This is also supported by the SREF and GFS ensemble plumes which cluster snow totals between 2 and 5 inches. The only other change I plan to make with the headlines is to end them by 21Z since forcing for vertical motion is progged to have moved east by then. For Saturday, another closed upper low is progged to come out of the southern plains. However the trend with this wave as been to keep it to the southeast of the forecast area. There may be some weak forcing for vertical motion across east central KS, but with the models keeping the better saturation southeast, think chances for measurable precip is to low to include in the forecast. Although can't rule out some flurries through the day on Saturday. A third wave is expected to move through the central plains on Sunday but moisture with this system is even more limited. With no guidance generating any significant QPF, the forecast remains dry. Shortwave ridging is expected to develop for the beginning of the workweek next week allowing a modest warmup in temps. By Wednesday there are signs of another amplified mid-level trough moving over the central plains. However there does not appear to be much consistency from run to run with this wave. So will stick with the national blend of models which gave me a dry forecast on Wednesday. If models continue to show the trough moving though in later runs, may need to include some POPs. Cloud cover and precip are expected to keep temps in the lower 30s today. Across the western parts of the forecast area with there is not expected to be precip and possible better insolation, highs could warm into the upper 30s. Snow cover is expected to limit how warm temps will get on Saturday across east central KS, but for areas without snow, a gradual moderation in temps is likely through the weekend with reading in the middle 40s. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 438 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 Confidence is high in deteriorating conditions for TOP and FOE as snow and sleet move north. Expect IFR VSBY with moderate snow by mid morning. The heavier precip shoudl begin moving east around noon with most if not all of the precip east of the terminals by 21Z. Dry air may prevail at MHK with only some flurries expected. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Warning until 3 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ040- 054>056-058-059. Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for KSZ012- 024-026-037>039. && DISCUSSION...Wolters AVIATION...Wolters
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Topeka KS 357 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-021000- Republic-Washington-Marshall-Nemaha-Brown-Cloud-Clay-Riley- Pottawatomie-Jackson-Jefferson-Ottawa-Dickinson-Geary-Morris- Wabaunsee-Shawnee-Douglas-Lyon-Osage-Franklin-Coffey-Anderson- 357 AM CST Fri Jan 1 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for east central...north central and northeast Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight. A winter storm with freezing rain, sleet and snow will move across east central and parts of northeast Kansas today. Areas along and east of a line from Council Grove to Topeka are likely to see wintry weather this morning. Ice amounts of 1 to 2 tenths of an inch and snow amounts up to 5 inches are forecast. The wintry weather is expected to taper off and move east of the area by mid afternoon. Winter weather warnings and advisories are in effect until 3 pm this afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight. && More detailed information can be accessed at... http://www.weather.gov/top/sitrep Wolters
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
A spotter estimated 7 inches of snow 3WNW of Osage City in Osage County by the time the snow was done in early afternoon.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kansas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kansas, January 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 927305.