Slow moving thunderstorms developed during the afternoon hours in a warm and humid airmass.
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The episode as NWS ILN wrote it up.
Slow moving thunderstorms developed during the afternoon hours in a warm and humid airmass.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wilmington, OH wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 10, 1:11 PM EST, 1 hour 19 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wilmington OH 211 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A moist airmass combined with a stalled surface boundary will keep the threat for showers and thunderstorms through Friday. Warm and humid weather is forecast to persist through the weekend, while a disturbance moving through the Great Lakes may trigger additional showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 PM THIS EVENING/... Scattered showers have sprouted across the region for another day, and the pattern is only supporting a slightly stronger uptick in strength today versus yesterday. That being said, the few in-cloud lightning flashes currently being detected in Ripley County IN does not look to strengthen and is likely at its peak right now. The initial burst of shower activity has dissipated, with other cu/tcu filling in the clear gaps from the earlier showers. This pattern will continue, but the likelihood of seeing any stronger storms does not appear to be happening this afternoon. Showers will cycle for the next few hours and then rapidly decrease in coverage and intensity well before nightfall. While thunderstorms remain unlikely as a characteristic of the day, an isolated rumble would have me keep the current forecast running for the afternoon and evening. Most unstable CAPE values this afternoon peak at 20Z and could top 1000 J/Kg along a wsw-ene line just through our southernmost counties. This also looks to be surface-based and will be heavily reliant on differential heating this afternoon to be realized. Another maxima exists over north central to east central Ohio but remains out of the forecast area today. Tried to limit activity this morning to just showers, and then placed isolated thunderstorms where CAPE >500 J/Kg which seemed overly much but was a start to trend towards a less likely occurrence of deep convection today. However it works out, it wasn't until this morning's balloon reached 300mb before winds exceeded 15kt. Therefore the messaging of any storms or even just showers will have a potential for torrential downpours given little to no movement, and PWAT of 1.68". Granted the 1.68" is lower than what we were expecting earlier this week, but not by much and certainly not by enough to try and lighten the messaging threat. Temperatures were nudged down slightly when blended into guidance from short term models, but this was only on an hourly and the earlier max temps forecast for today were untouched. Expect high temperatures generally in the lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /10 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... Shower and thunderstorm activity to diminish with the loss of heating this evening. A better chance for lingering showers will persist over the southeast. Light winds and humid airmass will likely lead to the development of fog tonight. Expect lows in the upper 60s. Models show a shortwave dropping into the trof over our southeast Friday. This will enhance showers and thunderstorm activity with the best threat for pcpn over the southeast. With SB CAPE values of 1500-2000 J/KG and some upper support -- have forecast categorical pops over the southeast. With minimal shear and PW values approaching 2 inches -- heavy rain and possible flooding will be the main threat from these storms. Expect highs to range from the lower 80s southeast to the mid 80s northwest. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... H5 flow will become more amplified through the weekend and lead to more notable changes in the weather pattern by the start of the next work week. Models suggest a decaying trend in PoPs Friday night as diurnal heating is lost. PWATs begin to drop off below the persistent 1.75- 2.0" range that we have been in throughout much of the week as some drier mid-level air filters in. There will still be enough deep layer moisture to produce some scattered showers/storms during the daytime hours on Saturday - but overall coverage will likely be lower compared to what we have observed this week. Late Saturday night, a cold front out of Canada will slide south and spark a few additional showers/storms along the front. The overall coverage and intensity of the precip is likely to be on the lower end based on the timing of this front being overnight. The cold front is forecast to move through our far southern counties Sunday morning - leading to diminishing precip chances from north to south Sunday. Any lingering rain showers will likely be out of the fa by late afternoon. Height falls will ensue Sunday night as an H5 trough deepens across the eastern CONUS. The Ohio Valley will be positioned west of the main trough axis - leaving our region in a predominant upper-level northwesterly flow pattern to start the work week. There is some potential for showers and a few storms to develop Monday afternoon and evening with a s/wv rippling through, so put a slight chance in the grids for now. Afterwards, we appear to get into a period of drier and cooler temperatures with further amplification in the H5 trough. A number of locations will observe highs capped in the upper 70s both Tuesday and Wednesday, with dewpoints lowering into upper 40s to middle 50s - providing a much needed break from the high humidity. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Current radar picture over the region would be the truest depiction of a vicinity shower for all of the TAF sites in the forecast area. Scattered MVFR clouds may see one or two obs coalesce into a bkn deck, but this would also likely come with a vsby reduction to 5 miles in a passing shower. Again, the passing part would inhibit the inclusion of a tempo, and trying to nail down one airport over another with a large scale upper circulation over Washington Court House is beyond what a reasonable expectation would be. Will continue to keep an upstream eye on all of the stations and amend if thunder looks to develop or a shower aims to place one of them within its cross hairs. Otherwise, the setting sun will also help the moisture to stratify and MVFR cigs with a later drop in surface vsbys is expected to occur overnight. Friday will be similar, but the upper pattern will be shifting and the cold air coming in on northerly winds would increase the likelihood of convective initiation due to daytime heating and unstable airmass, along with an increase in areal coverage. .OUTLOOK...Showers with MVFR to IFR possible through Saturday, along with a chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. && .ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. KY...None. IN...None. && SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...Franks SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...Clark AVIATION...Franks
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wilmington OH 1144 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-111545- Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio- Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant- Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke- Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison- Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway- Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown- Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto- 1144 AM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana, Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, South Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Scattered showers are expected to develop this afternoon, along with isolated thunderstorms. The moist airmass over the region has increased the possibility for torrential rainfall, which could lead to isolated flooding under a slow moving storm. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon. The moist airmass over the region has increased the possibility for torrential rainfall which could lead to isolated flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
High water was reported over the road at the intersection of Shiloh Road and State Route 250.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Indiana in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Indiana, June 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 953565.