Central Kentucky sat under the leading edge of an upper ridge during a period of typical summer weather. Temperatures rose during the day creating strong instability in the atmosphere that caused showers and thunderstorms to breakout.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LMK wrote it up.
Central Kentucky sat under the leading edge of an upper ridge during a period of typical summer weather. Temperatures rose during the day creating strong instability in the atmosphere that caused showers and thunderstorms to breakout. As rain filled downdrafts initiated outflow boundaries, the outflow boundaries initiated more storms. This happened daily before a weak cold front pushed drier air into the region. Several counties in central Kentucky received isolated wind damage during this three day stretch. Scott County had flooding issues on June 13th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Louisville, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 10, 6:34 PM EST, 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 734 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Mesoscale Update... Issued at 615 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Have been watching scattered cells over central KY and southern IN this afternoon, which have so far stayed well north of the Cumberland Pkwy. Mesoanalysis has roughly 2000-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE with no effective shear to speak of. Moderate CAPE has (and will continue for the next few hours) allowed for decent updrafts and relatively cold cloud tops. However, with weaker flow aloft and no wind shear to support organization, cells have remained rather disorganized and slow moving. PWATs are in the 1.9-2.1" range, and combined with slow moving cells, has led to some training and heavy downpours, resulting in isolated areas meeting or slightly exceeding 3 or 6 hour FFG. Primary hazard for this evening will be localized flooding issues, so will be keeping eyes on radar and MRMS flash flood guidance products. && .Short Term...(This evening through Friday) Issued at 246 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 Persistent pattern continues as the upper level low has now become absorbed into the upper flow with troughing extending SSE across the OH Valley. Surface analysis places a center of low pressure along the OH River in western KY with troughing extending NE across central KY and southern Indiana and 70 degree isodrosotherm encompassing all of the CWA. Radar is currently showing scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms across the area as KY Mesonet shows temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. SPC Mesoanalysis shows a bullseye of surface convergence near the low center in western KY and extending NE along the OH river coincident with SBCAPE maxima of 2000 J/kg. This is where the best chances of thunderstorms will be, though RAP model soundings have been advertising a subtle warm nose around 700mb that could inhibit robust thunderstorm development through the afternoon. Several observations so far have reported 1/4SM within heavy rain showers, so main threat continues to be brief torrential rainfall with flash flooding potential. General flow appears to be progressive across most of KY with storm motion approximately 260/20kt, but in southern Indiana mean flow is noticeably weaker where radar shows storm motions closer to 10kts. Southern Indiana is also where flash flood guidance is lowest due to consecutive days of showers, so will keep a close eye on radar and flood potential throughout this afternoon and into the evening hours. Tonight, expect to see convective activity wane as we lose surface heating. Some clearing across the area will lead to low stratus and fog development by early morning and persist through mid morning. Low temperatures Friday morning will range between 66 and 71. As the surface low pushes ENE across the OH Valley tonight through tomorrow afternoon, the region will remain within a sultry environment with surface dew points in the low 70s and PWATs remaining around 1.80 inches. Expect another day of mainly diurnally driven showers and isolated thunderstorms with high temps in the mid 80s. .Long Term...(Friday night through Thursday) Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 The weekend: A weak cold front will approach the region Saturday and push through the area late Saturday night into early Sunday. With the warm, humid air mass still in place ahead of this feature, scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected...particularly Saturday afternoon and evening when instability peaks around 2000 J/kg SBCAPE with 20-25kt bulk shear. High temperatures will be from the mid 80s to around 90. In the humidity ahead of the front Saturday afternoon heat index readings will climb into the middle 90s west of the Blue Grass. Next week: Overall, next week looks primarily dry as a couple of surface ridges slide southward through the area. One possible interruption will be the trough located between those two ridges. The ECMWF brings this feature through Monday night but the operational GFS waits until Tuesday and brings it through at a time of better instability. As a result, the GFS develops a significant band of showers and storms in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys coincident with it. However, the ECMWF and CMC so far have remained dry. Most members of the ENS EC are dry, as are almost all members of the GEFS. Given that the operational GFS is an outlier at this time, will stick with a dry forecast for now. However this will be something to watch -- the GFS has had good run-to-run consistency over its past four runs, generating precipitation Tuesday. Unfortunately the Desert Southwest will bake next week as a powerful upper ridge sets up over the Four Corners. However, for us we'll be watching a corresponding upper trough dropping from southeast Canada into the eastern United States, keeping our temperatures in check. Highs for us each day should generally be in the 80s (can't rule out a few spots touching 90 on Monday...and the Blue Grass will peak in the 70s on Wednesday). && .Aviation...(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 733 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 IMPACTS: Scattered showers and storms ending this evening. MVFR conditions likley overnight with patchy dense fog. DISCUSSION: Convection has continued to diminish in intensity this evening with the loss of heating. Expect scattered convection to continue to wind down as the evening wears on. Overnight, clouds and low-level moisture will remain and cigs should build downward with time. MVFR fog is possible at the terminals, though KHNB may drop down below IFR overnight. The lowest cigs/vsbys look to be between 11/08-13Z. Low clouds are expected to linger into Friday morning with cigs returning to VFR by mid-late morning Friday. CONFIDENCE: Medium on all elements. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && Mesoscale...CJP Short Term...CG Long Term....13 Aviation.....MJ
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Louisville KY 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067- 070>078-081-082-111900- Orange-Washington-Scott-Jefferson-Dubois-Crawford-Perry-Harrison- Floyd-Clark-Hancock-Breckinridge-Meade-Ohio-Grayson-Hardin-Bullitt- Oldham-Trimble-Henry-Shelby-Franklin-Spencer-Anderson-Woodford- Fayette-Bourbon-Nicholas-Nelson-Mercer-Jessamine-Larue-Marion-Boyle- Garrard-Madison-Butler-Edmonson-Hart-Green-Taylor-Casey-Lincoln- Logan-Warren-Simpson-Allen-Barren-Monroe-Metcalfe-Adair-Russell- Cumberland-Clinton- Including the cities of Paoli, Salem, Scottsburg, Madison, Jasper, English, Tell City, Corydon, New Albany, Jeffersonville, Lewisport, Hawesville, Hardinsburg, Brandenburg, Hartford, Leitchfield, Elizabethtown, Shepherdsville, Louisville, La Grange, Bedford, Milton, New Castle, Shelbyville, Frankfort, Georgetown, Cynthiana, Taylorsville, Lawrenceburg, Versailles, Lexington, Paris, Carlisle, Bardstown, Springfield, Harrodsburg, Nicholasville, Winchester, Hodgenville, Lebanon, Danville, Lancaster, Richmond, Morgantown, Brownsville, Horse Cave, Greensburg, Campbellsville, Liberty, Stanford, Russellville, Bowling Green, Franklin, Providence, Scottsville, Glasgow, Tompkinsville, Edmonton, Columbia, Jamestown, Burkesville, and Albany 255 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021 /155 PM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021/ This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central Indiana and Central Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Slow movning showers and storms will produce localized heavy rainfall again tonight. Some areas could experience some minor flood concerns with repeated rainfall. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. Afternoon thunderstorms are possible through the weekend. Brief locally heavy rainfall will be possible Friday, and any thunderstorm will produce lightning. Some of this rain could result in localized low lying flooding on Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report instances of heavy rainfall or flooding. CG/13
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Louisville KY
317 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021
KYZ036-041-101945-
Scott-Fayette-
317 PM EDT Thu Jun 10 2021
...STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
LEXINGTON...
At 316 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Blue Grass
Field, moving northeast at 15 mph.
Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with this storm.
Locations impacted include...
Lexington, Georgetown, Meadowthorpe, Thoroughbred Acres, Cardinal
Hill, Bryan Station, Northland, Highlands, and Viley.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
LAT...LON 3799 8460 3805 8465 3811 8463 3811 8465
3812 8465 3812 8464 3813 8464 3812 8463
3814 8463 3825 8450 3814 8437 3813 8437
3811 8438 3809 8434 3809 8431
TIME...MOT...LOC 1916Z 233DEG 13KT 3809 8457
13The Louisville radar (KLVX), 61 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:52 UTC.
24 thunderstorm wind, 5 flood, 3 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Dispatch reported water was over the roadway at West Mount Zion Road.
A tree blew down in Grandel Farms.
Trees were reported down along Blevins Gap Road between Valley Station and Fairdale.
The Frankfort ASOS reported a 57 knot wind gust at 6:31 PM EDT.
A video on social media shows trees that fell down on power lines. The power lines were sparking.
Power lines were down in Upton.
Downed trees were blocking 31 West, just north of Bonnieville. There were also several reports of wind damaged barns in the area.
A tree fell down.
A tree was down on Simpson Lane.
A few trees and large limbs blew down at Love's truck stop.
A tree was down blocking Lansdowne Drive and Nantucket Drive.
A tree was down along Route 643, south of Sanford.
A tree fell down along 1295.
A tree was blocking Georgetown Road and Mckinney Avenue.
A tree fell on power lines.
A tree was blocking Williams Lane and Big Sink Road.
A tree fell down at Park Street at Rose Hill Avenue.
A tree was down on a power line near Oregon Road and Hifner Road.
A tree fell down.
A tree was down on North Bragg Street at First Street.
Trees fell down.
A tree fell down in the Morgan Manor neighborhood in Georgetown, Kentucky.
A tree was down at Pea Ridge Road.
There was a tree down across Cynthiana Road.
There was flooding at a home on the 3900 block of Ironworks Road in Scott County, Kentucky. The value of property damaged is unknown.
A house flooded on the 100 block of Joshua Court in Scott County.
A home basement flooded on the 3600 block of Frankfort Pike in Scott County.
Scott County Fire reported that Frankfort Pike (US 460) & Gallow Road were underwater.
Owenton Road was flooded between Cedar Road and Switzer Road, north of Stamping Ground.
There was a tree down on Knob Lick Wisdom Road.
Pictures showed water from Oakland Branch Creek flowing over Sharp Road, northwest of Stamping Ground, Kentucky.
Locust Fork Creek overflowed into a driveway off of Main Street in Stamping Ground.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, June 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 970178, 969785, 969786, 969790, 969787, 969788, 969789, 969801, 969791, 969804, 970189, 969792, 969793, 969794, 969795, 969796, 969797, 969798, 969802, 969799, 969800, 969803, 970193, 970192, 968777, 968778, 968781, 970182, 968782, 970190, 968773, 968783.