Wildfire in Florida, May 22 to 29, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
336 PM EDT Sat May 22 2021

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday)...

A weather blocking pattern remains across the United States with a
trough of low pressure over the Western United States and over the
Eastern United States with a ridge over the Central United States.
This will keep high pressure over the Southeastern United States
with subtropical storm Ana over Northern Atlantic waters.

The high will remain nearly stationary over the Southeastern United
States through Sunday, as NHC is forecasting ANA to remain over the
Northern Atlantic waters and far away from South Florida.

This weather pattern will allow for the pressure gradient to
continue to relax over South Florida which in turn will reduced the
breezy easterly winds today down to more of a moderate levels by
Sunday. The weather will also remain dry over South Florida through
Sunday.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...

The long term begins with some troughing taking place in the upper
levels as a weak upper level low tries to develop over the
Bahamas early next week. The flow will remain a drier northerly
flow across Florida. At the surface, high pressure will remain in
place leading to a continued drier than average forecast at least
to start the new workweek.

Ridging across the southeast will continue to spread southward
over the Gulf States and then into Florida through midweek as the
weak upper low moves eastward away from the region. With the
heights increasing, dry conditions can be expected from the
Tuesday into Wednesday timeframe. That said, this ridge of high
pressure aloft will begin to spread quickly west by Thursday
allowing for weak upper troughing to set up over the region. This
will modify the upper levels just a bit in terms of moisture,
which should allow for better sea breeze convection on Thursday,
albeit still isolated to scattered in nature through the end of
the week. Otherwise, as the surface flow becomes rather lackluster
through the long term, temperatures along the Atlantic Coast will
begin to warm. Additionally, inland and Gulf Coast will further
warm with temperatures approaching the middle 90s, especially from
Tuesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION(18Z TAFS)...

The breezy easterly winds will continue over the TAF sites this
afternoon before decreasing to more moderate conditions for tonight
along with mostly dry conditions. There could be a shower or two,
however the coverage will be few and far between to put into the TAF
sites tonight. The ceiling and vis will also remain in the VFR
conditions at all of the TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...

The breezy easterly winds this afternoon will slowly decrease
through rest of the weekend and by early next week be 10 knots or
less. his will allow for the Atlantic seas to slowly decrease from 4
to 5 feet this afternoon to 3 feet or less early next week. The Gulf
seas will also remain at 3 feet or less through early next week.
Therefore, the SCA for the Atlantic Waters through this evening
before dropping down to SCEC for tonight. Rest of South Florida will
see an SCEC this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The grounds have been very dry over the western interior and Inland
Miami-Dade County due to lack of rainfall during the last couple of
months. The relative humidity is forecast to be in the lower to mid
30s with the transport winds around 15 mph and the ERC's in the mid
30s to lower 40s this afternoon. Therefore, a the Red Flag Warning
continues for these areas this afternoon into the early evening
hours.

&&

.BEACHES...

The moderate easterly winds will keep the threat of Rip Currents
going for the east coast beaches of South Florida through rest of
the weekend. Therefore, the High Risk of Rip Currents will continue
through the rest of the weekend for the east coast beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            72  84  72  86 /  10   0   0   0
West Kendall     70  86  68  87 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        72  83  70  87 /  10   0   0   0
Homestead        71  83  70  84 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  73  82  72  85 /  10   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  72  81  71  84 /  10   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   73  82  70  87 /  10   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  70  83  70  85 /  10   0   0   0
Boca Raton       72  83  70  86 /  10   0   0   0
Naples           66  90  67  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM EDT this evening for FLZ063-066-069-
     070-073-075.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...None.
&&

Tonight/Sunday and Aviation/Marine/Fire Weather...BNB
Sunday Night through Saturday...Frye

Visit us at weather.gov/miami

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
www.facebook.com/nwsmiami
www.twitter.com/nwsmiami

Hazardous Weather Outlook for South Florida
National Weather Service Miami FL
417 PM EDT Sat May 22 2021

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-GMZ656-657-676-
230830-
Lake Okeechobee-Biscayne Bay-
Coastal waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Jupiter Inlet to Deerfield Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Deerfield Beach to Ocean Reef FL from 20 to 60 NM
excluding the territorial waters of Bahamas-Glades-Hendry-
Inland Palm Beach-Metro Palm Beach-Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Inland Broward-Metro Broward-Inland Miami-Dade-Metro Miami-Dade-
Mainland Monroe-Coastal Palm Beach-Coastal Broward-Coastal Miami-
Dade-Far South Miami-Dade-
Coastal waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from East Cape Sable to Chokoloskee FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Chokoloskee to Bonita Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
417 PM EDT Sat May 22 2021

...Hazardous Marine and Beach Conditions Continue...
...Enhanced Fire Weather Conditions For Interior This Evening..

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Florida.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents continues for the Atlantic
coast beaches of South Florida.

Fire Weather: Dry fuels and breezy conditions will lead to dangerous
fire weather conditions for the interior and southwestern portions
of South Florida early this evening.

Wind: Easterly winds around 20 kt with higher gusts will continue
over the Atlantic waters this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

The high risk of rip currents across the Atlantic Coast beaches will
continue through Sunday. An elevated risk of rip currents may remain
in place through early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

For more information...visit the National Weather Service in
Miami website at www.weather.gov/miami.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
445 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2021

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     WILDFIRE         2 SE NORTH BLOCKS GOLDE 26.21N 81.51W
05/22/2021                   COLLIER            FL   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            A 200 ACRE WILDFIRE ONGOING EAST OF NAPLES. AN UNKNOWN
            NUMBER OF HOMES THREATENED AT THIS TIME. COLLIER SO HAS
            ISSUED A VOLUNTARY EVACUATION BETWEEN 12TH AVE AND 16TH
            AVE.

&&

RFRYE