Persistent easterly winds combined with elevated surf over the weekend created a High Rip Current risk along local NE FL beaches and resulted in numerous ocean rescues.
Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
Persistent easterly winds combined with elevated surf over the weekend created a High Rip Current risk along local NE FL beaches and resulted in numerous ocean rescues.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 21, 7:23 PM EST, 4 hours 37 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
823 PM EDT Fri May 21 2021
.UPDATE...
Showers have decreased this evening as surface temperatures and
and winds have eased. Isolated shower potential will continue
over the Atlantic waters overnight with a few showers reaching the
immediate coast in a few locations overnight. Otherwise most
areas will be dry tonight. Lows will range from the lower 60s
inland to near 70 degrees along the coast.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION [737 PM EDT]...
.NEAR TERM [Through Saturday]...
Surface ridging will begin to shift southward overnight, becoming
centered over the southeastern states by Saturday afternoon.
Meanwhile, ridging aloft will begin to retrograde slightly by
Saturday afternoon as its center migrates from the Ohio Valley
this evening towards western portions of the Tennessee Valley. Our
local pressure gradient will remain tight through Saturday
afternoon, keeping breezy easterly winds in place at coastal
locations, where enough low level convergence will be in place to
continue a threat for occasional brief showers advecting onshore
from the Atlantic waters overnight and Saturday morning. Surface
winds will decouple at inland locations towards midnight, but
pockets of stratocumulus moving well inland should keep lows
mostly in the lower 60s, while coastal lows remain in the upper
60s to near 70. Skies may become fair during the predawn hours for
locations to the north of west of Waycross, where patches of fog
and low stratus may develop towards sunrise.
Subsidence aloft will begin to strengthen locally on Saturday as
stacked ridging shifts over the southeastern states, which should
keep isolated shower chances confined to coastal locations. The
local pressure gradient will also gradually loosen over inland
southeast GA during the afternoon hours, with cirrus perhaps
invading our skies from the north during the afternoon hours as
northerly flow strengthens between the ridge to our northwest and
a large trough over the western Atlantic waters. Highs may climb a
degree or two above what was experienced today, with upper 80s
expected inland and lower 80s at the coast.
.SHORT TERM [Saturday Night through Monday Night]...
Ridging aloft will drop southward from the western Tennessee
Valley towards the lower Mississippi Valley as the axis of a
large trough over the western Atlantic waters shifts southward on
Sunday and then pivots offshore by late Monday. Meanwhile, surface
ridging will weaken as it settles southward over our area on
Sunday and then settles over the FL peninsula and the adjacent
western Atlantic and eastern Gulf of Mexico waters by Monday
afternoon. This will signal the beginning of a major weather
pattern change locally, with light winds allowing for early
development of sea breeze development at the Atlantic coast on
Sunday and Monday afternoons that will shift well inland by late
afternoon. A subsident atmosphere will shut off rain chances, and
highs on Sunday will climb to the lower 90s across all of inland
southeast GA and the Suwannee Valley, with low to mid 80s expected
at coastal locations during the early afternoon hours before the
sea breeze pushes inland. Fair skies will allow for radiational
cooling each night, with lows on Saturday night falling to the
upper 50s to lower 60s inland, ranging to the mid and upper 60s
at coastal locations. Lows will then climb a few degrees at inland
locations on Sunday and Monday nights, but coastal locations
should still fall below 70 degrees. Highs on Monday will skyrocket
to the mid and upper 90s for inland southeast GA and the northern
Suwannee Valley, with highs around 90 at coastal locations before
the sea breeze pushes inland.
.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Thursday Night]...
Ridging aloft will shift directly over our region on Tuesday and
will then slide southeastward by midweek downstream of weak
troughing that will attempt to traverse the southeastern states on
Wednesday and Thursday. The heat wave will continue, with isolated
afternoon convection possible by Thursday afternoon as the weak
trough aloft migrates across our area. The axis of Atlantic
surface ridging centered near Bermuda will extend across the FL
peninsula, keeping prevailing south-southwesterly flow in place
locally, allowing the Atlantic sea breeze to develop towards noon
at coastal locations each day. Highs will continue to climb to
the mid and upper 90s each afternoon, with inland lows falling to
the 60s and coastal lows generally around 70. A dry atmosphere,
hot temperatures and decreasing soil moisture values will create
an increasingly elevated wildfire danger as next week progresses.
.AVIATION...[Through 00Z Sunday]
Showers and wind speeds have decreased this evening and this
trend will continue overnight. VFR conditions will prevail tonight
and Saturday. East winds will increase after 13z Saturday with
gusts to around 20 knots.
.MARINE...
Strong high pressure centered along the Carolina coast will shift
southward this weekend while gradually weakening, becoming
centered directly over our local waters by Sunday. A Small Craft
Advisory will continue for the offshore waters adjacent to
northeast FL through tonight, where seas of 5-7 feet will prevail.
Caution level wind speeds of 15-20 knots will prevail overnight
for these waters, while winds elsewhere fall below Caution levels
after midnight. Caution level seas of 4-6 feet will prevail
offshore and for the near shore waters adjacent to northeast FL on
Saturday. Gusty easterly winds will subside on Saturday evening,
allowing for seas to fall just below Caution levels offshore.
Meanwhile, a long period easterly swell will arrive over our
waters by Saturday night, keeping elevated seas of 3-5 feet in
place through Monday. High pressure will then shift to the
northwest of our area early next week as weak troughing develops
over the southeastern states, with the Atlantic sea breeze moving
onshore towards noon each day, resulting in elevated onshore winds
each afternoon over the near shore waters as prevailing southerly
flow develops offshore through midweek.
Rip Currents: Gusty onshore winds will keep a high risk of deadly
rip currents in place at area beaches through Saturday. A powerful
easterly ocean swell will then arrive at area beaches on Saturday
evening as winds begin to subside. This 13-14 second swell will
likely result in a high rip current risk continuing for at least
the northeast FL beaches on Sunday, and this elevated threat may
continue into Monday before the swell subsides by Tuesday.
.FIRE WEATHER...
Breezy easterly surface and transport winds will create high
dispersion values across portions of inland southeast Georgia and
northern portions of the Suwannee Valley on Saturday. Surface and
transport winds will then diminish on Sunday, resulting in
marginally low dispersion values area-wide. Otherwise, dry and
increasingly hot weather is expected late this weekend and for
much of next week. Relative humidity values will plunge to near
critical thresholds across inland southeast Georgia and the
northern Suwannee Valley each afternoon next week as afternoon
highs soar to the mid 90s, creating an increasingly elevated fire
danger as dry weather continues through at least midweek.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 61 87 60 91 63 / 0 10 0 0 0
SSI 69 81 65 85 68 / 20 10 10 0 0
JAX 62 84 60 88 61 / 10 10 0 0 0
SGJ 69 82 65 84 65 / 10 10 10 0 0
GNV 61 87 59 89 61 / 10 0 0 0 0
OCF 61 87 60 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for Coastal
Duval-Coastal Flagler-Coastal Nassau-Coastal St. Johns.
GA...High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT Saturday for Coastal Camden-
Coastal Glynn.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for Waters from
Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60
NM.
&&PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
959 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0830 PM WILDFIRE 12 ESE DUNNELLON 29.00N 82.26W
05/21/2021 MARION FL EMERGENCY MNGR
UPDATES PREVIOUS WILDFIRE REPORT FROM 12 ESE
DUNNELLON. MARION COUNTY PUBLIC SAFETY
REPORTS A 80 ACRE WILDFIRE IN DUNNELLON WITH
90% CONTAINMENT. TWO MOBILE HOMES AND 4
OUTBUILDINGS HAVE BEEN DESTROYED BY THE
FIRE. 3 HOMES WERE PARTIALLY DAMAGED. 25
HOMES WERE EVACUATED.
&&
KCThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
A total of 44 ocean rescues occurred for Jacksonville Beach Lifeguards from May 22 through May 23 due to surf and rip currents.
Flagler Beach Ocean Rescue pulled 4 people from the ocean who were caught in a rip current at South 6th Street in Flagler Beach. There were no injuries and medical attention was not needed.
One male drowned due to a rip current. He was trying to save his two young children from the rip current. Witnesses were able to create a human-chain and save the children, but were unable to rescue the victim. The drowning occurred at Huguenot Park.
Four people were rescued from the surf by at least 7 lifeguards near Ocean Hammock Park. It took 20 minutes to rescue everyone. One person needed medical attention and was transported to a hospital.
A swimmer was pulled to safety by Flagler Beach Ocean Rescue in Central Flagler Beach. Medial treatment was not needed.
A male went into cardiac arrest and died as a result of being caught in a rip current. Many people tried to help the victim return to shore before rescuers arrived, but they, too, were caught in the rip current. Lifeguards rescued the victim, but he was later pronouced dead at the hospital. Others at the incident were rescued from rip currents and treated by on-scene paramedics.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rip Current, Coastal Duval | 2021-05-23 | Male | In Water | Direct | |
| Rip Current, Coastal Nassau | 2021-05-24 | 37 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, May 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 952955, 952927, 953079, 952931, 952929, 953085.