Surface observations showed a fairly sharp trough of low pressure located just east of Flagler Beach which arched northeast over the local coastal waters. This trough shifted westward through the day and allowed a plume of deeper moisture to overspread the local area.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
Surface observations showed a fairly sharp trough of low pressure located just east of Flagler Beach which arched northeast over the local coastal waters. This trough shifted westward through the day and allowed a plume of deeper moisture to overspread the local area. This surge of moisture under steeper lapse rates and cooler 500 mb temp near -10.8 C under weak shear (< 20 kts) fueled storms with locally heavy rainfall.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 25, 6:45 AM EST, 2 hours 45 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 745 AM EDT Fri Jun 25 2021 .AVIATION... [Through 12Z Saturday] Plentiful moisture and a surface and upper trough in the area fostering multilayered clouds and isolated to scattered weak convection so far today. Mainly VFR at this time but showers embedded isolated thunderstorms are currently are near KVQQ and KSGJ. KSGJ may be stuck in MVFR for several hours today, with brief IFR ceiling not out of the question either. Most of any convection should be focused over northeast FL through late morning and early aftn, and then push up to near KSSI in the afternoon. At least some MVFR (cig and/or vis) and occasional gusty winds in and near this convection today. Included short TEMPO TSRA group where high chances expected today. This activity will wind down in the evening hours around 00Z-03Z. Northeast winds near 5-10 kt for most of the TAFs early this morning should become more east and northeast in the aftn around 10-15 kt, and diminishing to light east in the evening hours. && .PREV DISCUSSION [411 AM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Today through Tonight]...Upper level trough across the area will shift west into the eastern Gulf of Mexico today. At the surface...a frontal boundary just south of the Ga-Fl line and an inverted trough over the Atlantic waters has resulted in a cool low level wedge building in from the ne this morning. The front will gradually lift back north today as the inverted trough shifts westward across the area. A surge of moisture will spread back across the area today with morning showers reaching the coast in an easterly flow. Winds will become southeasterly as the trough axis shifts to the west with scattered afternoon storms spreading inland as daytime heating and increasing moisture destabilizes the airmass. Shower activity will end over the Suwannee Valley early this evening as the trough shifts west of the area. Showers will likely return to the east coast late tonight as another inverted surface trough approaches from the east. Temperatures will be below normal again today due to clouds and shower activity. Highs will be in the 80s this afternoon with lows tonight near average levels. .SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]... Saturday...Easterly flow slowly builds, but continued moist airmass with Precipitable Water Amounts just below 2 inches will continue to support scattered to numerous showers that begin in low level convergence along the Atlantic Coast and I-95 corridor in the morning hours, then slowly translate inland during the afternoon hours and peak heating as the East Coast Sea Breeze presses inland. Locally heavy rainfall still possible from some storms, but slightly faster storm motion towards the west will limit widespread heavy rainfall pattern from this past week. Max Temps will range from the middle 80s along the Atlantic Coast to the upper 80s/near 90 degrees over inland areas. Sunday...Low level easterly flow becomes breezy as High Pressure ridge builds north of the region, but a drier airmass aloft with PWATs falling closer to 1.5 inches will finally bring lower than normal rainfall chances to the region with only widely scattered (20- 30% coverage) showers and storms expected, along the Atlc Coast in the morning hours, then pushing inland during the afternoon hours with the East Coast Sea breeze. The lower coverage of the storms will allow for Max Temps to reach into the lower 90s for some inland locations, with mid/upper 80s closer to the Atlantic Coast. .LONG TERM [Monday Through Thursday]... High pressure ridge to the north with easterly flow will continue on Monday/Tuesday with atmospheric moisture returning closer to normal with PWATs rebounding closer to 1.75 inches and expect a quick return to more normal rainfall chances in the 30-50% range, along with near normal Max Temps around 90 degrees in most locations. On Wednesday/Thursday, the high pressure ridge to the north will begin to break down and steering flow will become more Southeast on Wednesday, then Southerly on Thursday, this pattern shift along with an increase in atmospheric moisture with PWATs returning closer to 2 inches or so and this will lead to scattered to numerous diurnal showers/storms with coverage pushing back into the 50-70% range, although still expect the best coverage over inland areas during the afternoon hours. This will nudge Max Temps back down into the mid/upper 80s with higher rain chances. .MARINE...High pressure will continue northeast of the region with westward moving coastal troughs through Saturday. An easterly flow will persist into early next week as a high pressure ridge remains to the north. Seas will remain elevated in the 3 to 5 foot range due to the persistent long easterly fetch. Rip Currents: Moderate risk through the weekend due to onshore flow. .HYDROLOGY...The Santa Fe River at Worthington Springs has reached minor flood stage. O'leno State park will reach minor flood stage this morning. Minor flooding is expected into early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 87 69 89 70 90 / 50 30 60 0 20 SSI 86 76 84 76 85 / 50 10 50 10 20 JAX 85 72 87 72 88 / 50 30 60 10 20 SGJ 83 73 85 74 86 / 50 40 60 10 20 GNV 86 69 88 71 89 / 60 30 70 10 30 OCF 86 71 89 71 90 / 50 30 70 10 30 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 heavy rain, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
A photo on social media showed the last half mile of Bible Camp Road was flooded under water by several inches. This was near the Santa Fe River.
A Weather Underground site reported 3.34 inches in the past 2 hours.
A Weather Underground site reported 3.35 inches in the Holiday Hill area since 11:30 am.
A private mesonet site measured 4.21 inches of rainfall in the past 3 hours near the intersection of Gemini Road and Century Twenty One Drive.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, June 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 960397, 960398, 960399, 960400.