A surface front across SE Georgia brought moist, deep layer WSW flow across NE Florida. An upper level trough axis extended from the SE Atlantic coast to across the FL panhandle.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
A surface front across SE Georgia brought moist, deep layer WSW flow across NE Florida. An upper level trough axis extended from the SE Atlantic coast to across the FL panhandle. Training bands of showers and storms moved across the local area, enhanced by several mid-level vorticity maxima that streamed over the area.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 3, 8:10 PM EST, 3 hours 50 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 910 PM EDT Sat Jul 3 2021 .UPDATE... Quasi-stationary front is bisecting southeast Georgia this evening. Showers were not a numerous this afternoon and evening with considerably drier air advecting into the 600-500 mb layer per JAX sounding. North of the frontal feature, north of Alma where drier air in the mid levels was more discernible, there was a lack of shower activity. Any lingering shower activity is expected to diminish to near nil during the late evening and a couple hours after midnight. This front is expected to linger across this same portion of our region throughout the night and during the day tomorrow. During the pre-dawn hours, the moist south- southwest flow will tend to initiate another round of convection over the northeast GOM and may seep into the Suwannee Valley and portions of north central Florida. In addition, there is a coastal trof over the nearshore waters which could bring the genesis of showers over the adjacent Atlantic during the pre-dawn hours. There will be more rounds of showers and thunderstorms throughout the 4th of July. This will especially be true for areas south of the Florida State line. WPC has outline areas south of the Florida line with a marginal excessive rainfall outlook of the 4th of July. For areas north of the of highway 82 in GA, chances for rain taper significantly (near zero by the Altamaha River Basin). This trend has been updated in the gridded forecast. && .AVIATION... [Through 00Z Monday] Showers have decreased in areal coverage this evening with VCSH at area terminals through 04z, with VFR conditions for terminals through the nocturnal hours. There may be some patchy fog and stratus reducing vsbys at GNV and VQQ during the predawn hours. Showers and thunderstorms will be on increase across the NE FL as the day progresses tomorrow (particularly the late morning through the afternoon into the early evening. There may be localized pockets of heavy rain that may temporarily reduce vsbys. && .PREV DISCUSSION [318 PM EDT]... .NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]... Showers and thunderstorms will continue move across the region today ahead of the slowly descending frontal boundary from out of the north as moist prevailing flow continues to move through from out of the west. Highest likelihoods for rainfall are over north central Florida with a potential for training showers and storms depositing rain over the course of the afternoon and evening hours with the WPC maintaining a marginal risk for excessive rainfall throughout northeast Florida. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the lower 70s for inland areas and into the mid 70s for areas along the coastline. .SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]... Shower and Thunderstorm developments will continue over into the 4th of July holiday with the bulk of the convection taking place over northeastern Florida, with the highest chances occuring near and south of the I-10 corridor. Storms and rain will become less widespread as drier air in the mid levels starts to build in over the region by the evening hours, leading to drier conditions overnight. Moist south-southwest flow will move in to replace the drier air on Monday which will lead to a return more widespread showers and storms, with the strongest developments again occuring over NE Florida in association with diurnal heating. Temperatures during this period will reach up to between the mid to 80s, with cooler max temps occuring over areas with increased cloud cover and rainfall. .LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Friday]... As of the most recent NHC forecast, 1100 AM Jul 3rd, the likeliest time frame for southeast Georgia and northeast Florida to experience the effects from Tropical Cyclone Elsa will take place on Tuesday and Wednesday. The exact path, timing, and intensity of the cyclone are still subject to degrees of uncertainty with regards to the JAX forecast area at this time due to Elsa's potential interaction with the islands of Hispaniola and Cuba. At current, Elsa has been downgraded from a Hurricane to a Tropical Storm, however Hurricane warnings remain in effect for Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Updates will be forthcoming as Elsa's path continues to be monitored. Moist southwesterly-westerly flow will be in place following the passage of Tropical Cyclone Elsa, which will result in a return to the pattern of daily bouts of showers and thunderstorms for the end of the week. Highest chances for storm development will be in conjunction with diurnal heating and the sea breeze. Daily high temperatures are expected to be in the 80s next week with overnight low temperatures dropping down into the 70s. .MARINE... A weak cold front across central Georgia today will drift south today and begin to stall tonight as high pressure shifts south and extends across south Florida. This will maintain a southwest to west flow across the waters with a chance of offshore moving thunderstorms pushing across the local waters through the weekend. Tropical Cyclone Elsa is expected to track northward across the Florida Straits Monday and then continue a northward track over or near the Florida peninsula into Wednesday. This scenario brings the potential for Tropical Storm conditions across the local Atlantic waters Tuesday night into Wednesday. Mariners should monitor the latest National Hurricane Center forecasts for Elsa. Rip Currents: Low Risk through the weekend. .HYDROLOGY... Most locations across NE FL are running about 300% or more of normal precipitation over the past 2 weeks, with pockets of SE GA especially west of Waycross elevated as well. With saturated grounds, a diffusing frontal zone across the area this weekend, elevated rivers in NE FL and the potential for a tropical cyclone mid-week, we certainly have conditions in place and ingredients setting-up for elevated flooding rainfall this upcoming week. The Santa Fe River continued in Minor Flood with the flood wave funneling toward the Suwannee River Basin. The St. Marys River at Macclenny is expected to rise just below flood stage today, but local interests should closely monitor this site today. Another basin to closely monitor will be Black Creek in Clay county this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 70 89 70 86 71 / 10 20 20 50 20 SSI 75 87 76 86 76 / 10 20 20 50 30 JAX 72 86 72 87 72 / 20 40 30 60 30 SGJ 74 85 74 86 74 / 30 60 30 60 30 GNV 72 85 72 88 72 / 30 80 40 70 20 OCF 74 87 72 89 73 / 50 60 30 70 20 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AM...None. &&
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 heavy rain, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Storm total rainfall was up to 3.31 inches since midnight. About 1.18 inches occurred in the past hour.
A car was stranded in flood water near the intersection of Flagler Ave and Land Ave in San Marco.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 964910, 964909.