A quick moving storm swept through the Upper Arkansas River Valley on November 12th producing isolated high winds and light snowfall along the Sawatch and Mosquito mountain ranges.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PUB wrote it up.
A quick moving storm swept through the Upper Arkansas River Valley on November 12th producing isolated high winds and light snowfall along the Sawatch and Mosquito mountain ranges.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 12, 4:02 AM MST, 4 hours 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 402 AM MST Fri Nov 12 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 402 AM MST Fri Nov 12 2021 Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating strong northwest flow aloft across the region, as a 130 kt jet core digs down the backside of the upper low and trough in place across the Upper Great Lakes through the High Plains. The strong flow aloft is being realized early this morning for areas over and near the higher terrain with northwest winds of 20 to 40 mph with gusts of 50 to 70 mph being reported at this time. The strongest winds have been across the central mts and the upper Arkansas River valley with the CDOT Cottonwood Pass (7BM) sensor indicating a peak wind gust of 82 mph around 130 am. Regional radars and observations indicating a few snow showers across the northern and central mountains, with a band of showers associated with the passing jet translating across the northeast Colorado plains at this time. This passing system also sent a backdoor front across the plains early this morning, with strongest sfc pressure rises being realized across southwestern Kansas and northwestern Oklahoma at this time. For today and tonight...Latest models are in good agreement with the strong northwest flow aloft slowly moderating through the day and into tonight, as said jet core continues to translate east and upper ridging builds across the Great Basin. This will lead to continued breezy west to northwest winds of 20 to 40 mph for areas over and near the higher terrain through the morning, with winds then slowly diminishing and becoming more westerly through the afternoon. Model soundings indicating enough mixing to support breezy northerly winds of 15 to 30 mph along and south the Palmer Dvd and across the far southeast plains today, with lighter and generally upslope flow across the I-25 Corridor through the afternoon. Models are also indicating the band of showers across the plains to continue to diminish and while can't rule out a stray flurry across Kiowa and eastern Prowers Counties, have kept the plains precipitation free through tonight. Showers across the northern and central mountains to continue to diminish and end through the morning, with little additional accumulation expected, though could still see some travel impacts with blowing snow through the morning. Temperatures today look to be near to slightly below seasonal levels with highs mainly in the 50s across the lower elevations, and in the 30s and 40s across the higher terrain. Winds to decouple across the plains this evening, though with developing lee troughing across the I-25 Corridor, will see downslope breezes developing across the higher terrain west of I-25 after midnight, leading to warming temperatures into early Saturday morning for the banana belt. Otherwise will see a mixture of teens, 20s and 30s for overnight lows, coolest in the normal valley locales. .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday) Issued at 402 AM MST Fri Nov 12 2021 Main Points: 1) Two cold fronts are in the forecast, one on early Sunday morning, which is expected to be a dry passage and the other on Wednesday morning which may bring isolated to scattered showers over the plains and drizzle, freezing drizzle, and fog on Wednesday morning. 2) Near critical fire weather conditions are expected on Monday with the limiting factor being wind speeds and critical fire weather conditions are likely on Tuesday afternoon over the majority of the region. Saturday and Sunday: An upper level ridge is expected over Colorado during the morning, but by mid afternoon a weak shortwave trough will propagate over northeastern Colorado. The upper level ridge will keep dry conditions and warm conditions (high temps around +10F above average) across the region throughout Saturday. When the trough axis passes over, enhanced winds are expected over Teller and El Paso County, which will create spotty critical and near critical fire weather conditions, but those conditions will be associated with the trough axis, so the temporal period of concern will not last for very long. The cold front associated with the weak trough is expected to reach our eastern plains by late Saturday to early Sunday. Current guidance has it reaching Kiowa County by around midnight, then to El Paso County by around 3AM, which indicates the "back door" nature of the front. The sensible weather associated with the FROPA will be north-northeast winds with gusts up to 20-30 mph and cloud cover. Current thoughts are for the clouds to be around 3kft AGL. The post frontal air mass will keep temperatures cooler, yet still above average, for Sunday. Winds will be relatively light, but are expected to be from the SE over the plains, which reinforces the cooler solution. Forecast soundings reveal low level saturation over KPUB, but that is one of the only places, which still shows that if winds are stronger than forecast from the SE, low clouds will be possible Sunday morning near the eastern mountains, including over Pueblo, Colorado Springs, and Canon City. Monday and Tuesday: An upper level ridge builds over the eastern Pacific and partially over Colorado, but it is quickly dampened as a stronger shortwave trough propagates from the Pacific NW towards Colorado. The ensemble and deterministic data agree that the trough axis will reach the Great Basin by late Monday/early Tuesday. The impacts are not really around Monday, outside of warmer temperatures. Wind speeds aren't expected to be strong, hence why critical fire conditions are not expected, even though the RH values will be below 15%. On Tuesday, however, there is good deterministic and ensemble agreement that the trough will reach NW Colorado by Tuesday morning/afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions are a concern over almost all of the region outside of the San Luis Valley (SLV), but if the trough forms further south, the SLV would also have critical fire weather conditions. As the strong trough axis passes overhead, snow showers are expected over the central mountains by Tuesday evening. No major impacts are expected since the trough passage is quick and the synoptic lift is relatively weak. Wednesday and Thursday: Current thoughts are that the strong trough will emit a stronger cold front that will reach the plains by early Wednesday morning. Wind gusts will be stronger than the earlier cold front, with gusts from the north-northeast of around 30-40 mph. The trough axis and weak synoptic lift associated with the positively tilted trough axis may create some light rain/snow showers over plains. Confidence is low of where the showers may occur, even though ensembles and deterministic model agree that it'll occur. The post frontal winds shift to the south-southeast on Wednesday morning and afternoon, leading to the possibility of drizzle, freezing drizzle, and fog near the mountains. Wednesday and Thursday will both be post frontal and cool, with temperatures slightly below average. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 402 AM MST Fri Nov 12 2021 VFR conditions expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24 hrs, with strong and gusty northwest winds across the higher terrain slowly diminishing through the day. Winds at COS look to be generally light south to southeast through the morning, with the potential for gusty northwest winds 15-25kt developing at the terminal after 20Z. Winds at PUB to remain generally light east to southeast with a lesser chance of seeing enough mixing to support gusty northwest winds in the afternoon. Breezy west to northwest winds of 10-20kts expected to develop at ALS after 18Z. Winds decouple aft 00Z with generally light winds expected at the terminals thereafter. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...MW LONG TERM...SKELLY AVIATION...MW
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pueblo CO 525 AM MST Fri Nov 12 2021 COZ058>089-093>099-131230- Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet- Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet- Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet- Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet- Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet- Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet- La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below 10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Alamosa Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet- Southern San Luis Valley- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet- Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet- Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet- Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet- Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet- Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet- Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet- Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between 7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet- Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County- Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below 7500 Feet- Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet- Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet- Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet- Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County- Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County- Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County- Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County- 525 AM MST Fri Nov 12 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east central...south central and southeast Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Gusty west to northwest winds of 25 to 45 mph can be expected for areas over and near the higher terrain this morning, with winds slowly diminishing through the afternoon. The gusty winds could lead to some minor travel impacts across the higher mountain passes of the Continental Divide through the early afternoon. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday Snow showers are expected to return over the central mountains late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. Isolated snow and rain showers are possible over the plains on Wednesday morning. Accumulations less than one inch are expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters will not be needed today or tonight. 23/SKELLY
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
433 AM MST FRI NOV 12 2021
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0135 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 5 SW BUENA VISTA 38.78N 106.22W
11/12/2021 M82 MPH CHAFFEE CO AWOS
AWOS STATION K7BM COTTONWOOD PASS.
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MWThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Cottonwood Pass AWOS reported a 82 wind gust.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, November 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 991556.