A lightning strike most likely ignited a wildfire 4 miles south of Akin.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A lightning strike most likely ignited a wildfire 4 miles south of Akin.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 5, 10:56 AM MST, 1 hour 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1156 AM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday) Issued at 405 AM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Radar and GOES imagery showing a lot of interesting gravity waves and outflow boundaries interacting to keep convection firing into early this morning. Of course even HiRes models can't keep up with this and may need to keep tweaking the forecast for these isolated storms through the morning. The 05/00Z hand analysis map shows the stronger northern stream near the Canadian border. A positively tilted ridge over Great Basin transitions to a negatively tilted low over the S.Plains. Moisture is trapped under this ridge and seems to be pooling ahead of the axis which will be forced into our western CWA today. Water vapor imagery is showing an embedded wave lifting through E.Nevada and this will be riding the ridge into southwest Wyoming through the afternoon and providing some weak ascent along with the moisture advection. Model consensus brings 0.75-0.85 tenths of an inch PWAT into the NW 1/3 of the CWA by afternoon. The coverage of storms this afternoon looks to tick up as a result. Outside of any unexpected boundary interactions storms will initiate over the terrain for the most part by mid day. Weak shear under the ridge suggests single cell mode initially and storms forming and dying quickly. Hot and dry conditions in the lower layer of the atmosphere will favor gusty outflow winds and boundary interactions will help spread storms to isolated pockets of the lower elevations. The valleys of the NW Colorado look slightly favored for this scenario as dew points will be higher and some multicell clusters along boundaries could be the outcome. Drier air works in from the SW through the late afternoon and this will limit rain chances while increasing localized critical fire conditions with gusty winds this afternoon over SE.Utah and SW.Colorado. Temperatures this afternoon remain around 10 degrees above normal. The record high of 100 for Grand Junction was set just last year and should be safe. The expectation is that convection will falter after sunset but would not be surprised to see some late night action under similar conditions as what is happening this morning. The top of the ridge will be suppressed by a dip in the Westerlies overnight with westerly to southwest flow developing on Sunday. This will bring in some drier air and focus most of the afternoon storm activity over the Colorado High Country. Temperatures remain well above normal ending out the weekend. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 405 AM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 A closed low spinning over the SoCal coast will get ingested into the main trough developing over the West and launched inland by Monday evening. As the low lifts into the Great Basin, upper level winds shift to the southwest overhead and a dry atmospheric column ahead of this system will engulf the Western Slope. In addition, the pressure gradient will start tightening aloft as the truncated high pressure system is further squeezed to the southeast. Despite rain forecast for this weekend, exceptionally dry conditions have taken precedence across lower valley floors. Cured fuels, a dry atmospheric column, and increasing winds will return the concern for critical fire weather conditions by Monday and become even more prevalent on Tuesday afternoon. Unfortunately, even as this system ripples across the region, minimal moisture available will leave the area anomalously warm and dry. Ensemble clusters are in excellent agreement absorbing the low into the broader trough, lifting north of the CO/WY border Tuesday evening. General consensus Wednesday onward leaves the CWA under strong (and dry) southwesterly winds. Critical conditions will remain the focus with regard to hazardous weather next week. Temperatures in the long term remain well above normal, despite the departure of this week's anchored high pressure system. Highs will hover in the low to mid 90s for valleys across western CO, upper 90s in the Grand Flats of Utah, while mountain towns are expected to remain in 70s. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon) Issued at 1152 AM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 Convection has started firing across the area and this trend will continue into the evening hours. Latest short range model guidance suggesting a few TAF sites might see -TSRA on station so included a few TEMPO groups to account for this. VCTS will be the rule for almost all TAF sites through this evening. Gusty and erratic outflow winds will be the biggest concerns under and near any convection that does form. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM...ERW AVIATION...TGR
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 441 AM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-061045- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 441 AM MDT Sat Jun 5 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will initially develop over the higher terrain by mid-day. A few storms will move off the terrain to the nearby valleys during the afternoon and evening hours. Outflow winds of 35 to 45 mph will be possible from some of the storms with lightning the other threat. Localized fire weather conditions will develop late this afternoon in the lower desert elevations. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Storm formation will be focused more on the Colorado High Country on Sunday. Some localized wetting rain is possible at the highest elevations. Localized critical fire weather conditions look to return to the valleys of southeast Utah and southwest Colorado with more widespread conditions possible next week as drier conditions return and southwest winds increase. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Beaver Tail Fire began in early June, most likely due to lightning, 4 miles south of Akin and grew to 463 acres before it was contained a few days later.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, June 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 958539.