Arizona, 2021Heat in Arizona, June 5 to 7, 2021
June 5 to 7, 2021 · NWS PSR · 3 events in 2 counties and zones
Strengthening high pressure centered over the Great Basin led to temperatures warming upwards of 5-7 degrees above normal for Phoenix. The warmest temperatures during this time peaked at 108 degrees in Phoenix on the 5th.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
- Tornadoes
- Tropical storms and surge
- Floods
- Wind
- Hail
- Winter weather
- Heat and drought
- Cold
- Fire, smoke and dust
- Marine and coastal
- Other
Open the live radar over this ground
- Deaths
- 5
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 3
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
Strengthening high pressure centered over the Great Basin led to temperatures warming upwards of 5-7 degrees above normal for Phoenix. The warmest temperatures during this time peaked at 108 degrees in Phoenix on the 5th. According to the Maricopa County Department of Public Health, five fatalities occurred due to the heat.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 4, 9:55 PM MST, 2 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jun 4, 9:55 PM MST, 2 hours 5 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
955 PM MST Fri Jun 4 2021
.UPDATE...06Z aviation discussion.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures this weekend resulting in widespread
moderate to localized high heat risk will cool back towards the
climatological average early next week. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon over elevated
terrain of eastern Arizona with just remnant debris clouds drifting
over lower desert communities Saturday. With a low pressure system
approaching the west coast next week leading to the cooler
temperatures, more pronounced dry air will push back into the entire
region.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A 589dm H5 anti-cyclone center has slowly migrated into far NW
Arizona early this afternoon, and will continue its southeast
progression across the state over the next 36 hours. On the eastern
periphery of this high pressure ridge, one notable circulation
center and arm of vorticity has swept through eastern AZ/western NM
while another much more subtle feature was diving south through
central UT. High terrain forced convection will be common again this
afternoon with the remnant midlevel moisture juxtaposed with steep
lapse rates drifting into south-central Arizona overnight.
Forecast BUFR soundings suggest another round of accas/virga
Saturday morning; however with weaker ascent fields and high
pressure settling overhead, activity will likely be less robust and
evaporating more rapidly through the morning. Thus with all other
thermodynamic measures similar to today, a near persistence
temperature forecast looks quite valid resulting in another day of
widespread moderate heat risk posing a potential impact to sensitive
groups, those reluctant to run their air conditioner, or those
performing strenuous outdoor activities and unprepared for this
heat.
The pattern evolution for the majority of next week will feature the
aforementioned high pressure ridge becoming dampened and displaced
into northern Mexico while deep, longwave troughing becomes
established over the East Pacific basin. Given the current blocking
nature to the pattern, forward progression of longwave features
would not be expected resulting in more modest height falls and
subtle cooling across the forecast area. Aside from a handful of CMC
ensemble members maintaining strong ridging across the SW Conus, the
vast majority of ensemble membership matches close to the ensemble
mean depicting enhanced, dry southwest flow and H5 heights hovering
in a 580-590dm range. Thus, "cooling" associated with this system
during the middle of the week may only equate to ~5F (or just back
to near the climatological average). This pattern of persistent dry
southwest flow and near normal temperatures may continue into next
weekend, though there is about 1/3 of ensemble membership trying to
show a pattern retrogression with a reintroduction of stronger
ridging and higher heat risk.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 0455Z.
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Drainage easterly winds will take over around 7/8Z this evening,
with speeds mainly aob 8 kts. Periods of variable wind directions
also possible overnight due to the lighter wind speeds, especially
at KSDL and KDVT. Winds will switch back to the southwest early
tomorrow afternoon and become breezy again with gusts to 20-25 kts
around and after 20Z. Similarly to tonight, winds speeds will
begin to weaken around 3/4Z tomorrow evening. Few to scattered
clouds aoa mainly 15 kft will thin out overnight and tomorrow.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
At KBLH, winds will favor the south-southwest. Speeds will remain
elevated around 15 kts through around 09Z before picking up again
tomorrow afternoon (gusts to 20-25 kts). At KIPL, southeast winds
will be favored, outside of a period between now and 09Z where
winds will be out of the southwest. Wind speeds will become
elevated tomorrow afternoon around 10-15 kts. Otherwise, skies
will remain clear to mostly clear at both terminals through the
TAF period.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Monday through Friday:
An elevated fire danger will exist during the first half of next
week with conditions becoming more typical for mid June towards the
latter half of the week. Early in the week, afternoon humidity
levels should easily fall below 10% coincident with wind gusts 20-30
mph and very dry fuels. Full sunshine and temperatures near to
slightly above the seasonal average will only exacerbate the fire
threat. Wind speeds will relax somewhat beyond midweek, however
minimum humidity levels will still fall into the single digits with
periodically gusty afternoon winds. Overnight recovery will be poor
to fair only around a 15-40% range.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
DISCUSSION...MO/Benedict
AVIATION...Feldkircher
FIRE WEATHER...MO
Heat, North Phoenix/Glendale
- When
- June 5, 12:00 AM MST to 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- North Phoenix/Glendale forecast zone
- Deaths
- 1 direct, 0 indirect
- Reported by
- County Official
- Coordinates
- 33.349, -112.491 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
One direct fatality was reported by the Maricopa County Department of Public Health, with their details, such as age, gender, circumstances, and exact location unavailable.
Heat, Central Phoenix
- When
- June 6, 12:00 AM MST to 11:59 PM MST
- Where
- Central Phoenix forecast zone
- Deaths
- 1 direct, 2 indirect
- Reported by
- County Official
- Coordinates
- 33.349, -112.491 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
Three fatalities (one direct and two indirect) were reported by the Maricopa County Department of Public Health, with their details, such as age, gender, circumstances, and exact location unavailable.
Heat, Central Phoenix
- When
- June 7, 5:00 PM MST
- Where
- Central Phoenix forecast zone
- Deaths
- 0 direct, 1 indirect
- Reported by
- County Official
- Coordinates
- 33.349, -112.491 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
One indirect fatality was reported by the Maricopa County Department of Public Health, with their details, such as age, gender, circumstances, and exact location unavailable.
- Heat
- Heat below excessive heat criteria that still caused deaths, injuries or significant impacts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Hail and Damaging Winds in North Dakota, June 5 to 6, 20211 in hail · 18 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in North Dakota, June 5 to 6, 20211 in hail · 12 events
- Rip Current in Minnesota, June 5, 20211 injured · 1 event
- Flash Flooding in Texas, June 5, 20215 events
- Flash Flooding in Texas, June 5, 20213 events
- Damaging Winds in Montana, June 5, 202158 kt wind · 3 events
- Damaging Winds in Montana, June 5, 202163 kt wind · 3 events
- Hail in South Carolina, June 5, 20211 in hail · 2 events
- Damaging Winds in Wyoming, June 5, 202153 kt wind · 2 events
- Wildfire in California, June 5 to 9, 20212 events
- Hail in Colorado, June 5, 20211 in hail · 2 events
- Waterspout in Gulf of Mexico, June 5, 20211 event
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1060981, 1060982, 1060983.