Rip Current in Minnesota, June 5, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
419 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 418 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

Summary: Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and
tomorrow evening, with a marginal chance for becoming severe. More
chances for showers and thunderstorms will repeat for the work
week in portions of our CWA. The next major system will move
through on Friday into Saturday.

Continuing record-breaking temperatures and instability will cause
the chances for showers and thunderstorms to persist this evening
into tonight. As the warm front moves north toward the Canadian
border this evening, storms are expected to initiate and affect far
northern portions of Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. SBCAPE in
the lowest kilometer show values of 1000-2000 J/kg in northeastern
Minnesota, though bulk shear form 0-6km is marginal with values of
30-35 kts. Inverted V soundings will make it easy for winds aloft to
mix down to the surface, making wind the primary concern for these
storms. Hail is not a concern at the moment due to the dry and warm
low levels, but small hail cannot be ruled out. As the sun sets and
the warm front moves north, instability will decrease and storms
will move into a less favorable environment.

Sunday will be the same setup as today. Hot temperatures, southerly
temperature and moisture advection, and instability will set up the
environment for more storms. A stronger low level jet in place could
increase the southerly advection into the Northland. A low in Canada
from a shortwave trough aloft will move east and its associated cold
front will move through the Northland tomorrow. MLCAPE values of
2000-3000 J/kg and bulk shear values of 20-30 kts also indicate a
marginal environment for severe weather. Steep low level lapse rates
for high wind gusts, as well as more moisture availability in the
mid levels could cause marginal to severe hail with these storms.
The strongest storms are expected to occur in northeastern
Minnesota, before moving into a more stable environment in northwest
Wisconsin and weaken.

As we remain under this upper level ridge into next week, afternoon
and evening chances of showers and thunderstorms continue into the
work week. High temperatures, moisture, and instability with
marginal shear magnitudes will be present in portions of our CWA.

An upper level trough in the Pacific Northwest moving east will
affect the northern Plains and upper Midwest on Friday. Its
associated cold front should reach down into the Plains and move
east throughout the day. This will bring more chances for showers
and thunderstorms to the region, and will be monitored as it get
closer for severe potential.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

VFR conditions will be the norm through the forecast period. An
area of showers and thunderstorms over west-central Minnesota
centered between KFFM and KETH will move eastward into the KBRD
terminal this afternoon. Have added a VCSH for now and will
continue to watch trends. Additional isolated showers and storms
are possible over central MN into northwest Wisconsin through this
evening. Another area of showers and storms may affect INL
overnight. Visibility may briefly decrease to MVFR or IFR in heavy
rain. A nocturnal low-level jet will develop tonight from eastern
North Dakota into northern Minnesota and northwest Ontario. The
strengthening jet will produce low-level wind shear at the
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 418 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

As a whole, conditions on the lake will vary depending on the day
and time of day. Chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms
will be present this evening into tonight, with higher chances
expected along the North Shore near the Canadian border. Some of
these storms could be strong and possibly severe, with locally
strong wind gusts, higher waves, small hail, and frequent
lightning. Sunday, thunderstorm chances in the evening will be
present as a cold front moves through the area, once again
possibly producing locally higher winds and waves and hail up to
an inch. When storms are not in the vicinity, winds primarily out
of the south are expected to be light for the remainder of today
and tonight. Early Sunday morning, winds should increase due to an
approaching low, with wind gusts up to 22 kts possible near the
shore. If winds continue to trend upward, a Small Craft Advisory
may be needed the late morning into the evening Sunday. Winds
should decrease over Sunday night into Monday as the low passes.
Waves should not reach above 2 ft when no thunderstorms are in the
vicinity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  88  64  85 /  10  10  20   0
INL  65  94  54  86 /  40  40  10   0
BRD  73  94  61  90 /  10  20  20  10
HYR  67  89  65  88 /  10   0  10  10
ASX  57  90  66  86 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Kossen
AVIATION...Huyck
MARINE...Kossen

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1226 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038-WIZ001>004-006>009-061030-
Koochiching-North St. Louis-Northern Cook/Northern Lake-
North Itasca-Central St. Louis-Southern Lake/North Shore-
Southern Cook/North Shore-North Cass-South Itasca-South Cass-
Crow Wing-Northern Aitkin-South Aitkin-Carlton/South St. Louis-
Pine-Douglas-Bayfield-Ashland-Iron-Burnett-Washburn-Sawyer-Price-
1226 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northeast
Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Record high temperatures of upper 80s to upper 90s are forecast
for much of the Northland today, with the exception of the
shoreline areas of the North Shore. Max heat index values will be
in the middle 80s to upper 90s. These conditions will create an
increased risk of heat-related illness.

There is a Marginal Risk of isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms over much of the Northland this afternoon into this
evening. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over far
northern Minnesota overnight. Cloud-to-ground lightning, large
hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter, and damaging wind gusts up to
65 mph are the main threat this afternoon and evening. Damaging
wind gusts up to 65 mph are the main threat overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Record and near record high temperatures in the upper 80s and low
90s are forecast Sunday with heat index values in the upper 80s
to middle 90s. These conditions will create an increased risk of
heat-related illness.

There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms Sunday for much
of the Northland. Cloud-to-ground lightning, large hail up to 1.5
inches in diameter, and wind gusts up to 65 mph are the main
threats.

There will be several additional chances for storms throughout
next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are encouraged to report hail of any diameter
and rainfall amounts to the National Weather Service.

LSZ121-140>148-150-061030-
Bayfield to Oak Point WI-Grand Portage to Grand Marais MN-
Grand Marais to Taconite Harbor MN-
Taconite Harbor to Silver Bay Harbor MN-
Silver Bay Harbor to Two Harbors MN-Two Harbors to Duluth MN-
Duluth MN to Port Wing WI-Port Wing to Sand Island WI-
Sand Island to Bayfield WI-Oak Point to Saxon Harbor WI-
Outer Apostle Islands Beyond 5 NM from Mainland-
1226 PM CDT Sat Jun 5 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Superior
and the Nearshore waters of western Lake Superior.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

There is a Marginal Risk of isolated strong to severe storms this
afternoon and evening. Cloud-to-water lightning, large hail, and
wind gusts up to 50 knots are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a Marginal Risk of isolated strong to severe storms
Sunday across western Lake Superior. Cloud-to-water lightning,
large hail, and wind gusts to 40 knots are the main threats.

There are several additional chances for storms throughout next
week.

Huyck

More information may be obtained at the following web address:
http://www.weather.gov/duluth (all lower case)