High Wind in California, May 17, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
225 PM PDT Mon May 17 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Brief warming trend through Tuesday as high pressure builds. A
slow moving trough will impact the region later in the week,
sending afternoon high temperatures down into the mid 70s and a
chance of rain and snow showers over the Sierra. Afternoon highs
should rebound by the weekend as the trough slowly weakens and
exits the area.

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.DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have been slow to develop today, but we
are starting to see a few showers popping up in Tulare county at
this time. Expect any showers or thunderstorms that develop this
afternoon to end early this evening. We will have a dry days with
near normal temperatures through Wednesday as a shortwave ridge of
high pressure continues to build into the region. As we
transition into the ridge, gusty winds will occur through and
below the mountain passes in Kern County. Winds will be strong
enough for a wind advisory in the Kern desert area just below the
passes tonight through early Tuesday morning with gusts of 45-55
mph possible.

By Tuesday night, a trough of low pressure will dig southward from
Western Canada and will begin impacting the area Wednesday, which
will lead to additional periods of breezy conditions in the wind
prone areas of the CWA through Friday. Afternoon highs will drop
3-6 degrees Wednesday as the trough approaches. Increasing onshore
flow Wednesday night and lowering 500 mb heights will send
afternoon highs into the low to mid 70s for the San Joaquin Valley
for Thursday, which will be around 7-12 degrees below average for
this time of the year. There will be a chance of rain and snow
showers over the central Sierra Thursday afternoon.

The upper low is forecast to meander southward on Friday, with
the cold core likely centering over central Nevada. This will give
a bit of a boost to the instability over the mountains due to the
cold air aloft being closer in proximity to the Sierra Nevada, so
afternoon thunderstorms are possible in the mountains Friday. A
bit of a blocking pattern will prevent the trough from quickly
leaving the area on Friday and Saturday, so expect a slow rebound
in afternoon high temperatures over the weekend. On Sunday,
ensemble guidance is showing the upper trough weakening and
opening up into an open wave. It is then forecast to exit the area
Sunday afternoon or Sunday night, which will allow for a bit of a
warm up early next week. Blended model guidance is showing highs
around 90 for next Monday, however this is subject to change some
as there is some uncertainty in just how long the trough takes to
leave the area on Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail in Central California through at
least the next 24 hours. Local MVFR to IFR conditions in the
Sierra Nevada due to showers and thunderstorms until 03Z Tuesday.

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.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

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