Early on the 17th, over four inches of rain came down in a hurry across southern Perry and northwest Saline Counties. A couple of miles southwest of Houston (Perry County), water inundated Highway 216.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
Early on the 17th, over four inches of rain came down in a hurry across southern Perry and northwest Saline Counties. A couple of miles southwest of Houston (Perry County), water inundated Highway 216. It was the same story to start the next morning in western White and northern Lonoke Counties. This time, Highway 319 was flooded two miles northwest of Ward (Lonoke County). A few trees were knocked down on the 18th by severe thunderstorms. A brief EF-0 tornado occurred near the town of Oppelo.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 17, 5:42 AM CST, 48 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Little Rock AR 642 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021 .AVIATION...Updated w/ a discussion for the 17/12Z TAFs Widespread SHRA w/ intermittent TS were noted on mosaic radar imgry this AM. A mix batch of MVFR/IFR condns were ongoing at most terminals, and VRB flight categories are expected through the fcst PD, w/ VIS remaining restricted w/ passing SHRA through the day. Confidence remains low on TS, so have kept VCTS/TEMPO groups for most terminals excluding the north. As precip dissipates late in the day, low CIGs wl remain and VIS is expected to remain restricted w/ patchy BR/FG becoming more prevalent. Winds wl remain Srly and gusty Mon afternoon across the FA. /232/ && .PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 339 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021) .SHORT TERM...Today Through Tuesday Night Radar mosaic imgry depicted widespread returns, of which some heavier showers w/ ocsnl lightning were noted over portions of S/Wrn AR, moving into Cntrl AR early Mon AM. Sfc observations in the wake of stronger radar returns is indicative of 1"/hr rainfall rates, w/ some observing sites having recorded over an inch of rain through the night thus far. Overall consensus remains on a persistently wet short term PD... Mon, plentiful tropospheric moisture wl be in place over the FA w/ PWATs in excess of 1.5 to 1.75 inches...approaching the 90th percentile for LZK climatology. Aloft, an H500 wave wl be approaching the Srn Cntrl US from the Srn Rockies. Ahead of this wave, a weaker perturbation wl eject through mean S/Wrly flow, w/ a weak sfc low tacking N/E over the ARK/MO/KS border region. Associated WAA/low-lvl isentropic ascent in the warm sector of this feature wl support widespread PoPs for the region through the day, w/ locally heavier QPF amounts of one to one and a half inches confined to Srn AR. Despite prevailing cloud cover and widespread precip, sufficient bndry layer mixing from strong Srly winds may still support afternoon MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. Most recent synoptic suites of CAM guidance suggests some stronger cells may develop over Wrn AR, however in the absence of any substantial wind shear and given a low end parameter space, long lived updrafts are not anticipated. Initially semi-discrete cells could produce some modest hail, w/ storm interactions leading to consolidation and transitioning the primary hazard to some strong thunderstorm driven winds. Tues, H500 ridging wl be more amplified over the Ern US, setting up a blocking pattern, and causing the aforementioned upper low to begin to stall over the Srn Cntrl US. As a result, this wl position a fetch of S/Wrly flow overtop a regime of rich atmospheric column moisture and low-lvl ascent via WAA. PDs of heavy rainfall wl once again return to the fcst later Tues as more robust forcing for ascent overspreads the region, w/ another one to two inches of rainfall possible over much of Wrn AR, and some locally greater amounts possible. Given antecedent rainfall amounts of one to two inches over this same area, a risk for some localized flash flooding wl be present overnight Tues into Wed. Additionally, persistent rainfall and increasingly saturated soils wl contribute to elevated rivers/streams and river flooding. && .LONG TERM...Wednesday Through Sunday Much like the past few mornings, medium range modeling remains in overall good agreement in the synoptic scale with the usual differences in the finer details. Of note this morning is the GFS solution which is somewhat drier versus the ECMWF which until now, had been had been the more aggressive solution. Regardless, both models continue to show signals a multi-day rain event with the highest amounts over the west. With model differences being what they are, will continue to blend forecast solutions. Period initiates with an upper level over the western high plains shearing out and getting absorbed into the overall prevailing flow. Pronounced upper flow from the southwest and southeast surface flow will continue to advect high levels of gulf moisture into the region with PWAT values in excess of 1.5 inches. Widespread rain is likely to be ongoing over central and western Arkansas with lighter rain over the east. Focus of the heavy rainfall will be shifting slowly to the west through the day as models remain consistent in developing a highly amplified upper pattern. By Thursday morning, the upper pattern will be highlighted by a trough digging into the Pacific Northwest and troughing over the south-central Plains increasingly blocked by an amplified ridge retrograding from the east. As this ridge does move towards the west, rain chances and QPF will decrease over the east and shift to the western part of the state, especially closer to the Oklahoma border. Rain chances will decrease for the end of the week as the aforementioned upper high builds in and moisture axis is shunted around the western periphery of this feature. While model placement of the heaviest QPF seems legit, individual shortwaves moving through the prevailing flow and any training thunderstorms could lead to locally heavier amounts. Total QPF through the forecast cycle period looks to be in the four to six inch range over the west with locally higher amounts possible, QPF will be less eastward to around an inch of two over the Delta. It should be noted that the heaviest rain in the medium range will be wednesday morning with the precipitation becoming scattered in nature for the remainder of the period. This should allow some run off to occur and reduce the overall flash flooding potential but the situation will need to be monitored closely. River levels will also need to be watched and some rises are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Batesville AR 74 64 79 66 / 90 60 60 50 Camden AR 78 66 82 67 / 80 60 80 50 Harrison AR 74 62 77 63 / 90 50 80 70 Hot Springs AR 75 65 80 67 / 80 60 80 70 Little Rock AR 76 66 81 66 / 90 60 70 50 Monticello AR 78 67 81 68 / 60 60 60 30 Mount Ida AR 77 64 78 65 / 80 60 80 80 Mountain Home AR 73 63 77 64 / 90 50 70 60 Newport AR 74 65 80 67 / 90 60 60 40 Pine Bluff AR 77 66 81 67 / 80 50 60 40 Russellville AR 77 65 79 66 / 90 60 80 70 Searcy AR 76 64 80 66 / 90 60 60 50 Stuttgart AR 77 66 81 67 / 80 50 60 40 && .LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE. && Aviation...GREEN
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Little Rock AR 350 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021 ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-180900- Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone- Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne- Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry- Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike- Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland- Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew- 350 AM CDT Mon May 17 2021 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms will prevail over much of the forecast area Monday. Locally heavy rainfall amounts of one to one and a half inches will be possible over most western and southern Arkansas through the day and later evening hours, with a few strong thunderstorms possible in the afternoon as well capable of some hail and strong winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday Through Sunday Rain chances will continue on Tuesday but increase in coverage and magnitude statewide Tuesday night and through Wednesday night when locally heavy rain could fall, especially over the western half of the state. Precipitation chances will continue through the remainder of the period but the rainfall will be more scattered in nature. At this time, four to six inches of rain will be possible through the week but amounts could be greater over any areas that receive multiple training thunderstorm complexes. Forecast rainfall amounts will taper off to the east with the Delta region only seeing one to two inches. This will be a multi-day rain event and help contribute to elevated stream/river levels. Soil moisture remains high in many parts of the state but with the rain falling over several days, the flash flooding threat should remain localized. The highest potential for flash flooding appears to be in the Tuesday night through Wednesday evening time frame when the heaviest of the rain is expected. .Spotter Information Statement... Spotter Activation is not anticipated at this time. && Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk. 232/56
The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 47 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 12:27 UTC.
9 flash flood, 6 thunderstorm wind, 1 tornado, 1 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency management reported that AR-216 was inundated with water.
Police and firemen blocked of a section of Hwy 319 that was inundated with water.
Several trees were reported down on county roads around Mena.
Trees were down on Hwy 27 near Mount Ida.
A tree was down on power lines.
Shingles were blown off a roof and limbs were down.
A tree was downed.
Trees were down near Hot Springs Village.
This brief tornado occurred immediately east of Hwy 9 south-southeast of the town of Oppelo, AR on the evening of May 18, 2021. A small number of farm outbuildings were damaged and a hardwood tree was blown down. Also some tree limbs were snapped. The tornado dissipated very quickly.
Social media video indicated water rapidly flowing through a back yard in the Bryant area.
A storm spotter called in numerous roads were flooded in Vilonia with crews putting up barricades.
Numerous roads throughout the county were reported flooded.
Numerous roads throughout the county were reported flooded.
Several roads in Bryant were underwater including Shobe Rd., Evergreen Rd., Springhill Rd., and Northlake Rd.
Highway 229 South was underwater along with other minor roadways.
ADEM reported that at least 4 homes and 8 cars were impacted by flooding in Saline county. Approximately 15 people have been rescued. Multiple roads were flooded throughout the county as well.
Heavy rain of 4.48 inches of rain fell.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyThe tornado archive for Arkansas, 2021Warnings in Arkansas, May 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 960480, 960484, 960481, 960482, 960483, 960485, 960486, 960487, 960489, 962112, 962113, 962114, 962115, 962116, 962117, 962118, 962119.