The Juniper wildfire started around 12:00 AM on 07/05/21. The cause was unknown.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MFR wrote it up.
The Juniper wildfire started around 12:00 AM on 07/05/21. The cause was unknown. As of the last report at 0630 PDT on 07/13/21, the fire covered 1011 acres and was 100 percent contained. 0 structures were lost, and 1.9 million dollars had been spent on firefighting efforts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Medford, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 4, 9:50 PM PST, 1 hour 10 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1050 PM PDT Sun Jul 4 2021
Updated AVIATION Section
.DISCUSSION...Most of the pulse-type thunderstorms have diminished
this evening with a few leftover showers in southeast Lake County.
Low clouds have spread inland at the coast north of Cape Blanco.
These low clouds will continue to spread inland overnight across
Coos and northwest Douglas counties but should not reach I-5
Monday morning. The low clouds could reach a little farther
inland than Sunday morning as ceilings at North Bend Airport are
400 feet higher than this time yesterday.
The main decision this evening was to extend the heat advisory
into Tuesday evening for Jackson County, and western and central
Siskiyou County. Expect similar temperatures for both Monday and
Tuesday in these heat advisory areas. Yet more unusual heat may
be expected again this weekend into early next week so more heat
advisories may be issued.
FYI: June 2021 at the Medford Airport had eight 100+ days in the
month which broke the previous record of six days in 1926, 1970,
and 1987.
Also, today at the Medford Airport was the 15th consecutive day of
95+ degree temperatures which is the 3rd most. If the high on
Wednesday is at least 95 degrees, the record of 18 days set in
1967 will likely be broken as temperatures begin to warm again on
Thursday.
-Sandler
&&
.AVIATION...For the 05/06Z TAF Cycle...A mix of MVFR/IFR ceilings
are occurring from Cape Blanco northward. These conditions will
continue into Monday morning, impacting the terminal at North
Bend, but likely remaining north and west of Roseburg. Meantime,
LIFR stratus and fog persists from Gold Beach southward. Similarly,
these conditions will remain through Monday morning. Expect clearing
to VFR back to the beaches or just offshore Monday afternoon, but
with MVFR/IFR ceilings likely returning Monday evening.
Over the remainder of the area...expect mainly VFR conditions with
areas of MVFR vsbys in smoke and haze across portions of southeast
Siskiyou County, southern Klamath, southern Lake and Modoc Counties.
-Spilde
&&
.MARINE...Updated 830 PM PDT Sunday 4 July 2021...A thermal trough
along the southern Oregon coast will remain in place into Monday,
then weaken Tuesday before restrengthening Wednesday through late
this week. Gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas are
expected across the waters today through Monday with steepest seas
from Gold Beach south beyond 5 nm from shore. Conditions improve
Monday night into Tuesday night with north winds weakening but
continued steep seas. Then, the thermal trough along the coast is
forecast to strengthen again Wednesday through late in the week.
This will result in a return of gusty north winds and steep to very
steep seas, with strongest winds and steepest seas south of Cape
Blanco. -CC/Spilde
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 417 PM PDT Sun Jul 4 2021/
DISCUSSION...2:15 pm observations are showing some convection
firing up across portions of Lake County, and a couple of cloud to
ground lightning strikes have already been recorded with a few
more cloud to cloud strikes. Additionally, some cumulus buildups
are forming along boundary just east of Highway 97 in California
and southwest of the Shasta Valley in Siskiyou County,
California. Additionally, smoke from the Salt fire is traveling
northward into south central Siskiyou County. Overall we expect
this trend to continue over the next several hours with
thunderstorms possible across portions of Modoc and Lake Counties
and south Central Siskiyou County.
This pattern is part of a ridge of high pressure and thermal
trough which will remain in place through Tuesday. As a result, we
will continue to see hot and dry conditions most of the week. Have
extended the heat advisory for Jackson and western and central
Siskiyou County through tomorrow night to account for one last day
of added heat stress from this pattern.
Conditions should change just enough Tuesday night into Wednesday
that a slight cool down (it's really just going to be less hot)
occurs on Wednesday. Additionally, with this short-wave moving
through on Tuesday, the SREF is starting to put up chances for
thunderstorms in the Cascade crest north of Crater Lake and
portions of northern Klamath and Lake Counties. This is the only
high-resolution guidance showing this at this time, with the GFS
and the EC ensembles showing only 1 or 2 members at most showing
marginal (and that is being generous) instability over this area.
Meanwhile, operational NAM and Canadian models are showing
extensive instability and if either of those verify, we'd be in
trouble. Am leaning toward the ensemble solutions since they show
a distinct lack of mid level moisture to help aid in convection,
but wanted to add a 10% chance POPs in that area...it will not
show up in the point and click forecast, but it is an area of
concern for the next shifts to take a look at.
The other note of concern is that we will be relatively breezy in
the afternoons, and this could create concerns for fire weather,
particularly east of the Cascades. Please see the fire weather
discussion below for more information.
Otherwise, the pattern shifts to be a bit more stable with the
thermal trough returning by the end of the week with heat
returning. -Schaaf
AVIATION...For the 05/00Z TAF Cycle...Isolated showers and
thunderstorms over far eastern Lake County and also perhaps Modoc
County will end this evening with the loss of instability.
Marine stratus and fog has mostly shifted offshore this afternoon,
except for an area of IFR that extends from Pistol River southward.
Expect another marine push this evening with IFR/MVFR stratus/fog
spreading inland into Coos and NW Douglas counties overnight,
lasting through Monday morning. This will impact the terminal at
North Bend, but should remain north and west of Roseburg. Expect
clearing to VFR back to the beaches or just offshore Monday
afternoon.
Over the remainder of the area...expect mainly VFR conditions with
areas of MVFR vsbys in smoke and haze across portions of southeast
Siskiyou County, southern Klamath, southern Lake and Modoc Counties.
-Spilde
MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday 4 July 2021...A thermal trough
along the southern Oregon coast will remain in place into Monday,
then weaken Tuesday before restrengthening Wednesday through late
this week. Gusty north winds and steep to very steep seas are
expected across the waters today through Monday with steepest seas
from Gold Beach south beyond 5 nm from shore. Conditions improve
Monday night into Tuesday night with north winds weakening but
continued steep seas. Then, the thermal trough along the coast is
forecast to strengthen again Wednesday through late in the week.
This will result in a return of gusty north winds and steep to very
steep seas, with strongest winds and steepest seas south of Cape
Blanco. -CC
FIRE WEATHER...Updated 145 PM PDT Sunday 4 July 2021...The first
of two main fire weather issues is limited to today, while the other
will be a consistent concern through the next week. The first is
isolated thunderstorms. The other is daily episodes of gusty
afternoon into evening westerly winds that will be strongest east of
the Cascades with drier than normal relative humidity values
accompanying temperatures at 5 to 15 degrees above normal, likely
reaching critical values at various locations through the next week.
The first location of concern is the Modoc, where wind gusts up to
30 mph and single digit humidities are expected to produce critical
conditions for several hours Monday afternoon. By Tuesday afternoon,
the area of concern expands to include eastern Siskiyou COunty and
southern Lake and Klamath Counties as winds pick up ahead of a weak
trough approaching the area from the west. A Red Flag Warning has
been issued to cover these conditions on Monday, along with a Fire
Weather Watch for the larger area Tuesday. See PDXRFWMFR for more
information.
Our inland area will also continue with mainly moderate overnight
relative humidity recoveries at mid slopes and ridges. Isolated high
terrain locations in Siskiyou and southern Jackson/Josephine
Counties will have the poorest overnight humidity recoveries (around
30 to 40 percent). Areas along the coast, where nightly marine
pushes are expected, will be cool with very good overnight
recoveries. Stronger marine pushes are possible Wednesday morning
and again later in the week, and this may provide some increased,
but temporary, relief to larger portions of the Umpqua drainage.
Gusty afternoon and evening winds will remain breezy at typical to
slightly stronger than normal speeds.
On the helpful side of things, a lengthy period of stable, dry air
aloft begins late this evening. But first, the northwestern edge of
the train of mid-level monsoonal moisture will make a slightly
farther intrusion into Modoc and Lake counties today than it managed
to do yesterday. Instability and sufficient mid-level moisture will
provide for a slight chance of thunderstorms over eastern portions
of Modoc and Lake counties this afternoon into the early
evening...mainly along a line from Adin to Alturas to Lakeview to
Paisley to Wagontire and eastward. Also, more briefly, with weaker
instability and lesser available moisture away from the main
monsoonal band, there is a slight chance of late afternoon/early
evening thunderstorms from the higher terrain east of the Scott
Valley in Siskiyou County northeastward across the vicinity of the
Lava and Tennant fires, into northwest Modoc County, far southeast
Klamath County, and far southern Lake County.
A higher of mid-level moisture will lower/improve Haines Index
values slightly today. But, another continuing concern is high
Haines Indices in and around the Lava and Tennant Fires. Both sites
will mainly fluctuate between a Haines of 5 and the maximum value of
6, highlighting the potential for plume-dominated fire behavior.
-DW/BPN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for ORZ624-625.
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for ORZ026.
CA...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for CAZ284-285.
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for CAZ080-081.
Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Monday for CAZ284-285.
Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for
PZZ350-356-370-376.
Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT Monday for PZZ356-376.
RES/RES/MASThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Juniper wildfire started around 12:00 AM on 07/05/21. The cause was unknown. As of the last report at 0630 PDT on 07/13/21, the fire covered 1011 acres and was 100 percent contained. 0 structures were lost, and 1.9 million dollars had been spent on firefighting efforts.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in California in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in California, July 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 958543.