California, 2021

Astronomical Low Tide in California, February 20, 2021

February 20, 2021 · NWS STO · 3 events in 2 counties and zones

A shortwave trough brought a quick round of rain and mountain snow to interior California. Snow levels for this event were generally above 4500 feet with storm total snow reports ranging between 2 and 9 inches of new accumulation.

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS STO wrote it up.

A shortwave trough brought a quick round of rain and mountain snow to interior California. Snow levels for this event were generally above 4500 feet with storm total snow reports ranging between 2 and 9 inches of new accumulation. This caused difficult travel conditions yet again with chain controls being hoisted and Interstate 80 holding traffic due to vehicular collisions.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Sacramento, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 19, 10:05 PM PST, 2 hours 55 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 19, 10:05 PM PST, 2 hours 55 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
1005 PM PST Fri Feb 19 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A weather system will bring a period of snow to the Sierra
tonight with possible travel impacts. Thereafter, a warming and
drying trend is forecast into next week with above average
temperatures expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The Evening Update:  Adjusted the timing of the WSW to 0100 to 1000
Sat as upper low off the Nrn CA coast is forecast to take a SEly
track to the SFO Bay area and then generally towards KLAS, and not a
faster more Ely track. The higher REF progs indicate the snow will
not overspread the Sierra zones until after midnight, albeit mostly
light upslope precip may precede the forecast of heavier snow
showers later this evening.

C-Gs off the coast indicate the instability along the frontal band
where some of the higher REF progs suggest a brief thunderstorm or
two could develop in our Nrn Sac Vly/NErn foothill zones. As it
were, after 9 pm a cell developed SW of Paynes Creek in zone 66 and
moved rapidly NEwd with a couple pulses and a + CG strike, followed
by a couple - CG strikes. The early evening convection did not occur
as forecast due to a lack of diabatic destabiliztion, a timing
issue. However, the vort max could trigger stronger showers, graupel
showers, in addition to a flash or two of LTG after midnight. Latest
Sat trends suggest the stronger dyanamics are headed towards the N
SFO Bay area and then into the Srn Sac Vly and Mother Lode areas
which will be in the SE to NE quadrants of the vort max, and where
some of the evening REF progs suggest some higher REFs are possible.

The Happy Camp snow profiler shows about a 4500 ft snow level which
should approximate well with the snow level over Norcal with the
frontal band later this evening.

.Previous Discussion...
Visible satellite imagery reveals overcast skies blanketing much of
interior NorCal this afternoon. The showers from earlier in the
morning have largely dissipated with only a few isolated rain/snow
showers south of I-80. Total rain amounts in the Valley were between
zero and 0.25 inches while foothill communities crept up to around
0.25 to 0.50 inches over the last 24 hours. In the mountains, snow
amounts were generally 2 inches or less.

Within the next 6-12 hours, renewed precipitation chances will
return from north to south as a stronger shortwave pushes onshore.
Will have to keep a close eye on radar in the northern Sacramento
Valley around 4 to 9 PM PST this afternoon/evening as high
resolution models depict a line of strong showers developing in
portions of Shasta/Tehama Counties. MUCAPE is around 100-200 J/kg
right as the energetic vort max approaches the area. Could
conceivably see these strong showers develop into isolated
thunderstorms east of the I-5. As a result, have added a slight
chance of thunderstorms to this area this evening.

As the night continues, snow will become moderate and briefly
heavy at times in the mountains. Snow levels will start around
4,000 to 5,000 ft in the evening, then drop to 2,500 to 3,500 feet
(locally lower in Shasta County). 4 to 8 inches of snow are
expected above 4,500 feet elevation where a Winter Weather
Advisory goes into effect at 6 PM PST. Not expecting snow to be
falling over the course of the entire advisory (which goes through
10 AM PST Saturday), but instead travelers should anticipate
periods of snow that will result in lower visibilities, slippery
road conditions, and potential travel delays. Motorists are always
encouraged to check with CalTrans for the updated road
conditions.

Precipitation will wind down tomorrow morning with gradual
clearing likely by the afternoon (especially in the Valley). Highs
tomorrow will max out in the upper 50s to low 60s in the Valley.

For Sunday and into the first part of the new work week, upper
level ridge over the eastern Pacific will allow a day-to-day
warming trend with highs by Monday approaching and possibly
exceeding the 70-degree mark for some Valley communities. // Rowe

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)...
Upper level ridge remains over the eastern Pacific on Tuesday
with Valley highs in the upper 60s to low/mid 70s. Ensemble
guidance flattens the ridge from Wednesday onward with
temperatures moderating back by a few degrees per day. Another
thing to keep an eye on will be some potentially breezy north/east
winds Tuesday night to Wednesday. The Euro ENS mean 500 mb chart
drops a trough into the Great Basin, which does favor offshore
winds. Will have to keep a close eye as we get a bit closer for
potential wind impacts. Slight chance of light precip re-enters
the picture around Thursday or Friday. // Rowe

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR with local IFR/LIFR conditions possible in
precipitation as Pacific storm moves through. VFR conditions after
18Z Saturday. Surface winds generally below 12 kts at TAF sites.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
Saturday for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas
County/Lassen Park.

&&

Event by event

3 astronomical low tide. Local standard time, as filed.

Astronomical Low Tide, Mt Shasta/Western Plumas County

When
February 20, 1:00 AM PST to 10:00 AM PST
Where
Mt Shasta/Western Plumas County forecast zone
Reported by
COOP Observer

Manzanita and Mineral reported 4 inches of storm total snow, while Chester reported 5 inches.

Astronomical Low Tide, West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada

When
February 20, 1:00 AM PST to 10:00 AM PST
Where
West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada forecast zone
Reported by
Department of Highways

Caltrans reported 4 inches of storm total snow accumulation at Kingvale, 9 inches at Soda Springs, 11 inches at Donner Summit, and 4 inches of snow at Eagle Lakes . Report was completed at 0600 on February 14.

Astronomical Low Tide, West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada

When
February 20, 1:00 AM PST to 10:00 AM PST
Where
West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada forecast zone
Reported by
Public

Ski resorts across the Sierra Nevada reported between 2 and 8 inches of new snow. Bear Valley received 2 inches of snow, Dodge Ridge got 3 inches, Kirkwood and Squaw/Alpine each got 5 inches, Sierra-at-Tahoe, Sugar Bowl, Soda Springs, and Boreal got 6 inches, and Tahoe DOnner got 8.

What these are

Astronomical Low Tide
Unusually low water from tides and offshore wind that caused impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in California in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in California, February 2021

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 945481, 945482, 945483.