A shortwave trough and strong winds aloft brought high winds to areas along and down wind of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGZ wrote it up.
A shortwave trough and strong winds aloft brought high winds to areas along and down wind of the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 20, 9:00 AM MST, 2 hours 53 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ 900 AM MST Sat Feb 20 2021 .SYNOPSIS...A passing weather system will produce strong west to southwest winds today. It will turn cooler on Sunday behind the system but warm from Monday into Tuesday as a milder airmass moves overhead. Look for another round of windy and cooler conditions on Wednesday associated with an additional weather disturbance. && .DISCUSSION...Wind Gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range were being reported this morning at locations northeast of terrain features such as Doney Park and Springerville as a shortwave trough approached northern Arizona. Look for winds to strengthen and spread through the morning becoming quite windy at most locations by the afternoon. The pressure gradient will strengthen through the day with 700 mb winds peaking at 50-60 knots. Daytime mixing will bring the stronger winds to the surface resulting in widespread sustained speeds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 40 to 55 mph. The highest gusts are expected across the higher elevations of Yavapai County as well as all locations along and north of a line extending through the Grand Canyon, Flagstaff and Springerville. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for much of the area from 10am to 8pm MST. Wind speeds will weaken from west to east as the front passes late this afternoon through the evening hours. Isolated rain and snow showers will be possible for a short period this evening in northeast Arizona as the cold front passes, but impacts will be minimal. Low temperatures will be tricky on Sunday morning due to locally breezy north to northeast winds. Wind sheltered areas across the higher terrain could see the mercury fall into the single digits. Expect daytime highs Sunday to be around 5 to 15 degrees cooler than today behind the system and associated cold front. Temperatures will rebound quickly early next week with above normal highs likely areawide by Tuesday. From mid-week onward, ensemble guidance continues to indicate multiple shortwave trough passages. The first of which will occur Wednesday into early Thursday with increased winds and cooler temperatures. Some precipitation cannot be ruled out, but best chances would be across northeast Arizona. Additional disturbances are likely through the remainder of the week with periods of breezy to windy conditions and shots of cooler air. There is low confidence on how much, if any, preciptation will accompany these systems. && .AVIATION...For the 18Z package...Expect VFR conditions through the next through 22Z. After 22Z, isolated -SHRA/-SHSN CIGS BKN025 north of a KGCN-KSJN line. Southwest surface winds will increase through the afternoon to 15-25 kts gusting 30-45KT with localized gusts to 50 kts possible. The strongest gusts will generally be along and north of the high terrain, and across portions of the Little Colorado River Valley. Winds will diminish after sunset. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect strong southwest winds this afternoon ahead of a cold front with gusts of 30-45 MPH and localized gusts 50+ MPH in the Little Colorado River Valley. Expect isolated light rain showers and snow showers north and east of Flagstaff late this afternoon and tonight. Lighter winds, cooler temperatures, with continued dry conditions Sunday. Monday through Wednesday...Warming trend and light winds through Tuesday. Southwesterly winds Tuesday will become breezy westerly winds Wednesday afternoon. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST this evening FOR AZZ004>017-039-040. && PUBLIC...McCollum/ AVIATION...ET/MAS FIRE WEATHER...ET/MAS For Northern Arizona weather information visit weather.gov/flagstaff
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The wind sensor at Two Guns reported peak wind gusts of 58 MPH just before noon.
Two weather stations in and around the Petrified Forest National Monument reported peak wind gusts of 64 and 68 MPH between 400 and 500 PM MST.
Greens Peat (10,000 feet elevation) reported a peak wind gust of 59 MPH at 531 PM.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 949822, 949864, 949862.