Dense Fog in California, February 16, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
335 AM PST Tue Feb 16 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Spotty light precipitation over the higher elevations will
continue this morning as a weak disturbance moves out later in the
day. Breezy to gusty winds will accompany this system, with the
stronger winds over the Kern county mountains and desert along
with the western part of the San Joaquin Valley. Otherwise, dry
weather can be expected over much of the region this week. High
temperatures will be slightly cooler than normal through
Wednesday, then warm to seasonable levels Thursday. Another
disturbance looks to move into the region and bring increased
chances of precipitation for mainly the northern portions of the
forecast area by the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Lingering showers continue this morning across the region as
Monday’s storm begins to exit into the Desert Southwest. While
most of the district will begin clearing out today, the south end
around the Kern and Tulare County mountains will continue to see
light showers as clouds bank-up along the mountains in those
counties. Now that the district is in the post frontal
environment, winds will be a bigger issue as strong winds are
expected to develop. Current surface pressure gradient analysis
from SFO to LAS is at about 13mb. Short range models are expecting
the pressure gradient to tighten today. Therefore, with the trend
toward stronger winds, Wind advisories have been posted for the
windy prone areas of Kern County and the West Hills. Beyond
Tuesday, model confidence remains high on the development of the
ridge pattern that will reside over the West Coast for most of the
week.

By mid-week, models confidence continues to increase on the
development of a ridge pattern shifting over the West Coast.
Therefore, trending toward a quiet period as the ridge pattern
dominates the region. Thursday will see a continuation of clear
conditions before the next in a series of storms begins pushing
ashore. Confidence is growing toward possible precipitation
returning to Central California around Friday. Model uncertainty
is still high on just how far south the storm will track as it
crosses the West Coast. The bulk of the storm’s energy will be
focused on the Pacific Northwest with Central California being
clipped at its south end. One thing to note about Friday’s storm
is that the origins of the moisture may be tropical in nature. If
models continue to trend in the current solution pattern, the
area may see another Atmospheric River event by the end of next
week. Yet, the focus of the tropical moisture may be aimed at the
Pacific Northwest with only minimal moisture reaching toward
Central California. However, even minimal moisture reaching
Central California can produce measurable precipitation during
storm passage. Will keep a mention of precipitation, mainly over
the mountains, for Friday.

Afterward, models then lean toward the development of yet another
disturbance crossing California on Saturday. Model uncertainty is
high on next weekends storm and its impact on the region. Current
long range model analysis indicates that the weekend storm is
showing signs of having an inside-slider trajectory. If so, more
mountain precipitation may be observed with minimal Valley rain.
By the end of the weekend, models trend back toward a ridge
pattern going into the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR with local mountain obscuring IFR conditions will
continue through 06z Wednesday. Winds in excess of 35 knots
through and below the mountain passes of Kern county also through
06z Wednesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail over the
central California interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon today to 7 PM PST this evening for
CAZ179-180-182-183-186-187.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ195>199.

&&

Public/Aviation/Fire Wx..Molina
PIO/IDSS/Social Media....Dudley

weather.gov/hanford