Strong Wind in California, April 4, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
434 PM PDT Sun Apr 4 2021

.SYNOPSIS...The marine layer will be the dominant weather feature
this week bringing cloudy, cool mornings and mild, sunny
afternoons. Temperatures will be near normal to slightly below
normal for early April. Rain chances look very slim to none
through the week. Only real scenario for precipitation will be if
any drizzle gets squeezed out of the stratus clouds here and there
along coastal regions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...as of 03:07 PM PDT Sunday...Pleasant weather on
this Easter Sunday, as stratus over the area has receded back to
the ocean. Satellite imagery shows some cirrus clouds gliding over
the area creating high cloud decks, but allowing some sunlight to
filter through to the surface. Temps have warmed into the 60s in
most area, with 50s hanging on right along the coast, and 70s in
southern Monterey County. A few more degrees of warming is
expected through the afternoon.

A shortwave passing over the area will keep a deep marine layer in
place, and onshore flow will allow for the return of stratus later
this evening. With no significant pattern change from today,
overnight lows will be similar to today's. Will also see stratus
burning off tomorrow morning with max T's similar to today's.

Weak ridging works its way into the area Tuesday, which will help
to compress the marine layer and boost temp's 2-5 degrees in most
areas. A trough pivots through the PAC NW Thursday, but will be
too weak and far away to impact our area. The upper low spinning
several hundred miles off the coast will remain off the coast, and
eventually dissipate. Thus, we will remain dry and temp's will be
fairly steady through the week.

GFS and ECMWF Deterministic and Ensembles show near zero chance of
precip through the week and only a couple of members suggest any
precip through the first half of the month. Still holding out hope
for the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION...as of 4:34 PM PDT Sunday...For the 00Z TAFs. It's
VFR. The marine layer is 3,000 feet deep. Marine stratus /MVFR/
returning tonight and Monday morning. Not in TAFs presently, but a
patch or two of IFR ceilings and visibilities in stratus and fog
are possible along the immediate coast late tonight and early
Monday morning. VFR late morning and afternoon Monday.

Vicinity of KSFO...VFR, then MVFR ceiling by early Monday morning.
West wind 15 knots diminishing to light and variable late tonight
and Monday morning. West wind 12 to 15 knots Monday afternoon and
evening.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR, then MVFR ceilings tonight and Monday
morning. Briefly IFR ceilings is a possibility early Monday morning
if the marine layer depth decreases for instance, though IFR is not
advertised as such in current 00z TAFs. Will look into it a bit more
and amend as needed.

&&

.MARINE...as of 4:23 PM PDT Sunday...Winds from the northwest
increasing this afternoon into Monday along the California coast,
creating hazardous seas for smaller vessels, gustier conditions
south of Pigeon Point to the Monterey Bay and down past Point Sur
and the Big Sur coast. A weak southerly swell is moving through
the waters, but impacts are too limited to be added to the current
forecast. The swell remains moderate period and out of the
northwest which will continue with otherwise diminishing period
through the week.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
     .Tngt...SCA...SF Bay until 9 PM
             SCA...Mry Bay until 9 PM
             SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 9 PM
             SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm

&&

PUBLIC FORECAST: Lorber
AVIATION: Canepa
MARINE: Canepa/Dhuyvetter

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