A cold front pushed into an unstable and very moist airmass to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms north of Interstate 40 during the afternoon of February 28th. Storms eventually evolved into a line and pushed southeast across the Mid-South.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
A cold front pushed into an unstable and very moist airmass to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms north of Interstate 40 during the afternoon of February 28th. Storms eventually evolved into a line and pushed southeast across the Mid-South. A few severe storms occurred. Heavy rainfall over already saturated soils resulting in some flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 2:24 PM CST, 6 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
224 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021
.DISCUSSION...
Flooding and severe storm potential remain the primary concerns
through late evening. Damaging wing gusts, a few tornadoes and flash
flooding are all possible.
This afternoons surface analysis showed lower/mid 60s dewpoints
extending into western KY and southeast MO. Dewpoints over northeast
AR were a few degrees cooler, but should warm with the surface warm
front north of the area. At the surface, a cold front extends from a
central WI surface low southeastward into MO/OK and west TX.
The front will be the main focus for severe weather this afternoon.
Storms should follow the front as it moves through the area.
With broken clouds, areas continue to support 1500+ j/kg MLCAPE
this afternoon. Effective bulk shear values of 50+ kts and
helicity values around 300 will support organized storm
structures. With that being said, deep layer shear is nearly
parallel to the front which will favor a more linear storm mode.
Within this line expect training storms that will cause flash
flooding, especially to our northern areas that have already
received 3 inches. Other threats will be gusty winds and
tornadoes. Hail doesn't seem as big of a threat but there's still
a possibility. Short term model guidance suggests precipitable
water values in excess of 1.8 inches will prevail in advance of
the cold front exceeding the 99th percentile of late February
precipitable water climatology. As far as timing, the line should
move through around 3 PM and continue to push south and finally
move out of the area by Tuesday.
By Tuesday we should see some additional, lighter rain as a closed
show passes through the Mid-South. We should have a slight dry
period Wednesday into the weekend. By the weekend a low pressure
system will dart across the desert southwest and push more showers
into the area by Sunday. As far as temperatures, models have our
area cooler than the previous runs, but dry.
SGW
&&
.AVIATION...
A few showers and storms are ongoing across the forecast area.
Current forecast is on track with the best chances for convection
will occurring ahead and along the cold front that should impact
most the area after 21Z. Lingering light rain will continue for a
couple of hours behind the front. IFR conditions will likely
occur with the convection, but conditions will improve quickly
behind the front. Gusty southwest winds will occur through frontal
passage. Thereafter, winds will remain gusty as direction
switches to the NW and eventually to the north.
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for Crittenden-Cross-Lee AR-
Phillips-St. Francis.
Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for Clay-Craighead-Greene-
Mississippi-Poinsett.
MO...Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for Dunklin-Pemiscot.
MS...Flood Watch through late tonight for Alcorn-Benton MS-Calhoun-
Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-
Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-
Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.
TN...Flood Watch through late tonight for Benton TN-Carroll-Chester-
Decatur-Fayette-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Madison-
McNairy-Shelby-Tipton.
Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for Crockett-Dyer-Gibson-
Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Obion-Weakley.
&&Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Memphis TN 226 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017- 020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-012230- Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay- Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur- Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood- Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS- Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot- Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis- Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley- Yalobusha- 226 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas... the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight A Tornado Watch has been issued for most of the Mid-South. See website for more details. Locally heavy rainfall from showers and thunderstorms will continue to bring a risk of flooding through late tonight. There is a Slight to Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall for portions of the Midsouth through tonight. There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms for the entire Midsouth through tonight. The primary severe risks will be damaging winds. A few short-lived tornadoes will also be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be necessary through late this evening.
The Memphis radar (KNQA), 99 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:30 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail, 1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Straight-line winds tore the metal roofing off of a barn.
A large tree knocked down. Wind speed measured at 67 mph with a handheld anemometer.
A portion of Highway 79, northeast of Forrest Avenue, in Marianna is closed due to high water. It has been reported that the railroad underpass is underwater and not safe for travel.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2021Every state in 2021This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, February 2021
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 947492, 944329, 944330, 947498.