Wildfire in Arizona, June 28 to 30, 2021

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
315 PM MST Sun Jun 27 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and dry today. The exception was areas near the
the state line with New Mexico. Moisture will increase across all
of southern Arizona Monday through the work week resulting in
scattered showers and thunderstorms and cooler afternoon
temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Last rather hot day of an already very warm month
with afternoon temperatures in the 105-110 range from Tucson west,
95-105 east and south of Tucson with 80s to lower 90s in the
mountains. Most of the thunderstorms this afternoon, as expected,
has been occurring across southern/SW NM with the western edge
near/along the AZ/NM border. These storms were not generating
much rain but have been rather gusty with Duncan recording a wind
gust of 47 mph with 40-60 mph being recorded along i-10 from the
state line to Lordsburg generating areas of blowing dust.

An active week ahead as the calendar turns from June to July with
deeper monsoonal moisture moving in from the east and south. The
activity across SW NM this afternoon is associated with an upper
level trof stretch NE to SW across NM. This trof over the next 24
hours will transition into an inverted trof as move west across
the area Tuesday and Wednesday enhancing thunderstorm activity
across the area both days. Thereafter expect daily rounds of
showers and thunderstorms into next weekend.

Daytime temperatures will be near normal Monday then below normal
for the remainder of the week into next weekend. Overnight lows
will be near or above normal for most of the next 7 days.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 29/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds 10k-15k ft MSL into this evening, with locally BKN
skies and ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA east of KTUS. Dry overnight with ISOLD-
SCT -SHRA/-TSRA redeveloping Monday afternoon as far west as
KTUS/KOLS. Wind gusts up to 40 kts possible with -TSRA. Otherwise,
SFC winds NW this afternoon 10-15 kts becoming E 10-18 kts this
evening through tonight. E/SE winds continue through the day Monday
at 8-15 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...One final hot and mostly dry day today with a
couple of showers or thunderstorms near the NM border area and
across the White Mountains. 20-ft winds become easterly 10 to 20 mph
this evening through Tuesday forcing a welcome increase in moisture
across the area. This will result in a significant increase in
humidity levels along with an increasing amount of shower and
thunderstorm activity through at least next weekend. Initial
convection early this week could be a mix of wet/semi dry storms,
however wet storms will be the dominant mode later Monday and
beyond. By midweek, there is the potential for a few strong or slow
moving storms to produce locally heavy rainfall which could be a
problem with burn scars across the region. At the same time, storms
will be capable of producing wind gusts in excess of 35 mph and
frequent lightning. Otherwise, daytime temperatures Tuesday into
next weekend remain below normal along with 20-ft winds less than 15
mph outside of thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson